1、外文翻译资本流入新兴市场土耳其中文3200字本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目：Capital Flows to an Emerging Market in Turkey 出 处：International Advances in Economic Research, 2003, Volume 9, Number 3, Pages 189-195 作 者：Saziye Gazioglu 原文：Capital Flows to an Emerging Market in TurkeyAbstractIncreased gIobalization in financial markets implies
2、 that the percentage of all shares under foreign ownership in domestic stock markets has been rising. Speculative attacks on the foreign exchange market in February 2001 led to deep economic crisis in Turkey.This article will explore various indicators of the financial crisis in Turkey based on a ma
3、cro-model. The foreign share of the domestic economy is a key variable to establish the degree of vulnerability during a financial crisis. An empirical investigation shows that the percentage of shares owned by foreigners on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) has been increasing since 1995 and is cur
4、rently about 50 percent of the total. Furthermore,the general index of stock market prices in 1999 was at its highest level since i995.This would imply that the general price index of the stock market is another strong indicator of an impending financial crisis. An empirical investigation of Turkish
5、 data based on a theoretical model is presented in this paper. An unexpected capital outflow would certainly cause exchange rate fluctuations, balance of payments problems, and international debt crisis. Hot money inflows boost share prices and keep the real exchange rate high. However, short-term s
6、tay of capital implies a sudden capital outflow that creates financial crisis, which results in international debt crisis. This in turn leads to a further increase in loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Relatively high stock market prices may suggest an impending financial crisis. Usin
7、g Turkish stock market price data, an impending financial crisis can be statistically predicted. (JEL E60,F32, F34, F36, F40, G15)Introduction Much work has been done in the area of financial crisis. Johnson et al. 2000 created a vulnerability matrix using sets of criteria including macro indicators
8、. Other theories of crisis include speculative attacks Krugman et al. 1979, and self-fulfilling hypotheses Obstfelt,1995. Other works include fundamentals, the second generations model moral hazard,and self-fulfilling expectations models on liquidity. Krugman 1996, Kaminsky 1998, and Kaminsky and Sc
9、humukler 1999 referred to these factors as contagions or common factors affecting all countries.Experience shows that short-term capital inflow is undertaken in pursuit of quick gains and includes or comprises speculation in the exchange rate markets. The result is increasing international debt and
10、the possibility of the halving of national wealth overnight, as happened in Turkey early in 2001. Most analyses are based on flow variables alone and ignore the effects of financial crisis on stock variables such as international indebtedness and wealth. Recent IMF papers by Borensztein 2000 and Lan
11、e Milesi-Ferretti 2000 underline the importance of linking theory with empirical work on real exchange rates and indebtedness. The possibility of unstable long-run equilibria based on our theoretical model is usually ignored in these studies (whereas the possibility is taken as given here). The argu
12、ments in this paper are based on a theoretical model that is different from others.The author argues that probability of future volatility is closely related to the percentage of shares under foreign ownership in the domestic stock market and the volatility of stock market prices. This paper is orde
13、red as follows: section two presents a summary of the model. Section three is an investigation into foreign share ownership on the Istanbul Stock Exchange and the forth section is a report on the empirical results. Section five concludes.Theoretical ModelThe model is based on Gazioglu 2001 and Gazio
14、glu and McCausland 2001; 2002, with a profit maximizing firm and a representative domestic consumer maximizing time separable utility functions IObstfeld and Rogoff, 1995; Ramse% 1928. Following Obstfeld and Rogoff 1995, the stock market constraint is as follows:VdXd=XdVd+XdDdEquation (1) states 1 t
15、hat a change in the proportion (Xd) of the value of domestic firms 2 that domestic individuals own (that is, shares: the value of domestic claims to the total future profits of domestic firms, Vd), XdVd, is equal to the domestic proportion of the change in the stock market valuation of these shares,
16、 XdVd plus their proportion of dividends, XdVd.The balance of payments constraint is:H=-T+H(1+/e)(1+Rf)The aggregate constraint of the stock market and net accumulation of foreign assets, -H,can only be accumulated by running a trade surplus, where H is the foreign owned share of domestic dividends
17、minus the domestic owned share of foreign dividends and H=-T+H(1+/e)(1+Rf) is any capital gain from holding foreign money in terms of foreign goods (a simple representation can be found in Gazioglu 1996, where external balance is also equal to internal balance):In essence, therefore, the right hand
18、side of the constraint represents net domestic income (factor earmngs, net interest from asset holdings, and return on shares) minus consumption (private and investment), reflected by the saving (net wealth accumulation) on the left hand side. It is the combination of the stock market constraint, fo
19、llowing Obstfeld and Rogoff 1995 and Net International Debt Gazioglu and McCausland, 2000; 2001; 2002. If the percentage of shares under foreign ownership in the domestic stock market increases, debt in the domestic economy increases, which is analogous to selling the family silver. It would seem th
20、e domestic economy is very sensitive to the level of foreign investment in the stock market. How severely a foreign shock affects the domestic market will be directly related to the percentage of shares under foreign ownership. The bigger the share of foreign investors in the domestic stock market,
21、the greater the vulnerability of the domestic economy. The Asian crisis can be considered to be in this category. Whether other emerging financial markets become similarly vulnerable depends, likewise, on the percentage of shares under foreign ownership in the domestic market. The dynamics of the wh
22、ole system may be summarized 3 in matrix form by:where the signs of the elements of the matrix are, from the discussion above: EE0，EH0，EV0 and EK0；HE0，HH0，HV0 and HK0；VE0，VH0，VV0，and VK0。The dynamic model is now complete and empirical analysis will follow in the next section. The model has two stabl
23、e equilibria and one unstable equilibrium. Gaziogln and McCausland 2000; 2001; 2002 show that having a high percentage of shares under foreign ownership has an asymmetrical effect on exchange rate and on international indebtedness during inflows and outflows. Unstable equilibrium is the term used wh
24、en a country has to borrow in order to make its debt repayments. The empirical work uses the dynamic variables of real exchange rate, real stock market index, and foreign capital flows. Ghosh 2000 used only the real exchange rate and real stock market index to find out the direction of causality. Th
25、e causality tests show that the order of the variables is as follows: capital flows (FORNFLP), stock market index (STOCKP), and real exchange rate (EXCCPI).Foreign Share in Istanbul Stock Market (ISM)One of the main aims of this paper is to argue that the percentage of shares under foreign ownership
26、 in any domestic stock market is a key indicator of vulnerability in the domestic stock market. The theoretical macro-model includes the dynamics of this important indicator. As a case study in Turkey, data from the Istanbul Stock Market (ISM) is used. It is worth noting that liberal foreign exchang
27、e policies have applied since 1989, so foreign investors are free to buy and sell in the ISM, as much as they wish. Foreign portfolio investment in the Istanbut Stock Market (ISM or IMKB) increased from $33,654 million in 1996 to $83,069 million in 1999 and to $111,157 million in 2000. Since 1996, t
28、he level of foreign investment has been growing very rapidly. Furthermore, the percentage of shares owned by foreign investors is around 50 percent of the total market. This is quite high. No figures were available for foreign portfolio investment levels before 1995.Structured VAR Approach The daily
29、 data is extracted from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) data stream for the period 01/01/1990 - 11/26/1999. Other stock market data is taken from Istanbul Stock Market publications. Real exchange rates, stock market prices, and international debt variables are used in order to relate it to the
30、 theory. This theory shows the possibility of unstable equilibrium when the share of foreign investment in the economy is high. A Structural VAR model was adopted as it overcomes the identification problem of the VAR estimation. The authors contribution is to add a full macro-model behind the econom
31、etric analysis. Stationarity and Co-integration Tests The stationarity of all variables is tested. The data was divided into sub-periods using Romers Narrative VAR Approach. The whole period (from 01/01/90 - 11/26/99) and the crisis period (from 11/26/95 - 11/26/99) were investigated separately. The
32、 Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) tests with and without a linear trend for the data in levels and first differences are reported in Table 1. The hypothesis of unit root cannot be rejected for two of the variables. Both real exchange rate (EXCCP) and stock market values (STOCKP) are rejected to be I(0) without the trend. However, real exchange rates (EXCCPI) and real stock market returns (STOCKP) with the trend variables have no unit roots within the 5 percent confidence for both the entire and the final periods. For foreign capital flows (FORNFLP), the null hypotheses having
