1、需求预测;生产计划系统界面;ABSTRACTThe plan and control of production is the core of the production management, production system is also one of the important component. In the production system, resource acquisition, conversion and distribution is through the production plan and control to finish. This paper us
2、e Jiangte motor company in 2011 before sales data, after statistics analysis, predict Jiangte motor company in 2012, 2013, 2014 years of sales forecast, and selected 2012 January and February on master production planning, to YZR motor production ability to demand plan and material requirements plan
3、ning, and then based on general production planning system, using the WEB technology developed Jiangte motor company the production planning system interface.Keywords: production plan and control; Demand forecasting; Production planning system interface;一 产品简介江西特种电机股份有限公司是一家专业从事起重冶金电机、高压电机等特种电机研发、生产
4、和销售的国家高新技术企业,国家电机行业骨干企业,江西省100强企业,深圳证券交易所上市公司,股票简称“江特电机”,股票代码002176。矿冶电机是矿山及冶金等类型企业常用特种电机产品,按照相数,可分为单相、三相和多相电机;按照频率,可分为工频、中频和高频电机;按照电压等级,可分为低压电机和高压电机;按照电机转速可分为单速电机和多速电机,还可分为低速和高速电机;按照有无电刷可分为有刷电机和无刷电机;按照励磁的来源可分为电励磁、永磁和混合励磁电机;按照磁通走向可分为径向、轴向和横向磁通电机;按照轴承可分为机械轴承、磁轴承和无轴承电机;按照磁路介质性质可分为铁心电机和空心电机;按照磁场方向还可以分为
5、同性极式和异性极式电机。YZ、YZR、YZR-Z系列电动机,是用于驱动各种型式的起重和冶金机械及其它类似设备的专用产品,具有较大的过载能力和较高的机械强度。它特别适用于那些短时或断续运行、频繁起动和制动、有过负荷及有显著振动与冲击的设备。YZ系列为鼠笼转子电动机,YZR、YZR-Z系列为绕线转子电动机。二 生产计划编制2.1需求预测分析根据表2.1.1:江特公司矿冶电机销售信息表,预测出江特公司2012,2013,2014年的各季度的矿冶电机销售量。初步分析销售数据,7-9月份销售量明显大于其它季度的销售量,可见,销售量随季度有一定波动,采用趋势剔除法将原数列的长期趋势和不规则变动先加以剔除,
6、然后再测定季节变动。测定季节变动的目的除了了解动态数列受季节变动的影响程度外,还可以通过消除季节变动的方法计算长期趋势。调整后的动态数列反映了没有季节因素影响的动态数列的变化趋势。表2.1.1 江特公司矿冶电机销售信息表(单位:万台)1-3月4-6月7-9月10-12月合计20000.10.180.120.520010.150.20.6520020.250.820030.30.920040.35120050.41.120060.461.2620070.291.3920080.360.581.620090.450.852.0520100.432.3820110.62.6表2.1.2 移动平均表年
7、份时间销售量(万台)四项移动平均值二项移动平均值y/Yt(%)0.1250.13125137.14286续表0.13750.1437583.4782610.152598.3606560.1550.1587594.4881890.1625123.076920.1687588.8888890.1750.1812582.7586210.18750.19375103.225810.20625121.212120.212594.1176470.2187591.4285710.225133.333330.2312586.4864860.23750.2437582.0512820.25625136.5853
8、70.26250.2687593.0232560.2750.281250.2875142.2222269.5652170.295101.694920.30250.3087580.971660.315146.031750.3212577.8210120.32750.332590.2255640.33750.342587.5912410.34750.355140.845070.36250.3778.3783780.37750.387592.9032260.39750.3987590.2821320.405143.209880.410.4212571.2166170.43250.4662585.79
9、08850.506250.51250.51875163.855420.5250.5312565.8823530.53750.5562580.8988760.5750.58585.4700850.5950.60125166.320170.607570.78189382.3045270.6287579.522863表2.1.3 季节比率计算表2000 137.14 83.48 220.62 2001 98.36 94.49 123.08 88.89 404.81 2002 82.76 103.23 121.21 94.12 401.31 2003 91.43 133.33 402.54 2004 86.49 82.05 136.59 93.02 398.15 2005 142.22 69.57 389.57 2006 101.69 80.97 146.03 77.82 406.52 2007 90.23 87.59 140.85 78.38 397.04 2008 92.90 90.28 143.21 71.22 397.61 2009 85.79 163.86 65.88 404.42 2010 80.90