笔记1.docx

笔记1.docx

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笔记1

笔记1

StrategicSupplyChainManagementRiskandUncertaintyinSCs（红体字就是这一章的topic）

导致SC弱点的起因：

Outsourcing;Globalisation;Volatilityofdemand;Lackofvisibilityandcontrolprocedures;Focusonefficiencyratherthaneffectiveness;Reductionofsupplierbase;Focusedmanufacturingandcentralizeddistribution（供应链的弱点一定要背熟，这个点虽然不会考答题，但是Partb的综合题里面很有可能涉及到，比如他让你列举SC弱点的动因，然后分析这些动因的原因，最后问你有什么办法缓解）

Uncertainty:

meansthatwecanlisttheeventsthatmighthappeninthefuture,buthavenoideaaboutwhichwillactuallyhappenortheirrelativelikelihoods,forexample,thepiracyattack.

Risk:

meansthatwecanlisttheeventsthatmighthappeninthefutureandcangiveeachaprobability.OraccordingtoHertlandin2003,riskisanimplicationofaphenomenonbeinguncertain.

[针对uncertainty和risk的总结句：

themorecapabilityyouhavetopredictathingmayhappen,thebetteryouwillbe,inotherword,betteratpredicting,betteratdailyoperationwhichleadstotheprofit.]

UncertaintyinSC:

accordingtoVanderVorstandBeulens（2002）,SCuncertaintyreferstodecisionmakingsituationsinthesupplychaininwhichthedecisionmakerdoesnotknowdefinitelywhattodecideasheorsheisindistinctabouttheobjective;lacksinformationaboutitsenvironmentorthesupplychain;lacksinformationprocessingcapacity;isunabletoaccuratelypredicttheimpactofpossiblecontrolactionsonsupplychainbehavior;orlackseffectivecontrolactions.（总结来说，不确定性可以归结为不知如何确定准确目标，缺乏SC及其环境的信息，缺乏足够的信息处理能力，不能精确的进行预测SC活动带来的影响和缺乏有效的管理能力，共五点）

课件立马有个theuncertaintycircle，但是实在是看不清，这个东西你自己稍微看一眼，心里有个数。

关于BlackSwans，没什么必要去多看，你只要知道对于SC的主要影响有下列三点：

highconsequenceflowvisibility,completelyunpredictable,cannotperceivethiseventwouldoccur.

RiskinSC:

UncertaintyincreasesriskwithintheSCandassuckriskisaconsequenceofuncertainty.Andfailingtoaddresstheriskwouldleadtothedevastatingimpact.

Riskcancomeinmanydifferentforms:

-canappearatanypointinthesupplychain（供应链是个多节点的工作结构模式）

-caninterruptthesupplyofmaterialsorthedemandforproducts（可能出现在供货或者需求货的过程中）

-cancausesuddenpeaksindemandorcollapses

-canrangeinscopefromaminordelaythroughtoanaturaldisaster

-itseffectscanrangefromshort-termthroughtopermanentdamage（可能引起短期影响或者永久性损伤）

针对风险的方法：

Thereactiveapproachtorisk

Ignoretherisk（真的去探寻风险的原因根本就是在浪费钱，因为风险并非可预见性的系统内问题）

-assumesthatitisonlywhensomethingunexpectedactuallyhappensthatproblemswillappear.

Assumespreparingforeventsthatareunlikelyisawasteoftime,whichmanagerscouldspendonotherjobs

Whensomethinggoeswrong,appropriatemeasureswillbetakentomitigatetheeffects

Problemswiththisapproach:

assumesthatriskyeventsarerareenoughtoignoreanditisslow.

Theproactiveapproachtorisk

Identifiesriskisadvanceanpreparesthebestresponse

Theresponsemightavoidtheriskorreducesitseffects:

1.sourcerawmaterialmorethan1supplier（多供货商供货机制）

2.usingonly70-80%ofproductioncapacityincaseofemergency.

3.providebackupsystem

However,thesemethodsoftenalsoincreasecostsandreduceefficiency.

Stepsinriskmanagement（重要部分）

1.Identify-identifyriskstothesupplychain.

2.Analyse-analysetherisks

3.Respond-designappropriateresponsestotherisks

1.IdentifyingRisks

Riskidentificationproducesalistoftherisksthatarelikelytoaffectthesupplychainandhencethebroaderorganization;risktothesupplychainconsistsofanythingthatmightinterruptthesmoothflowofmaterialsorinformation（sourcesofSCvulnerability）

具体来说，SC供应链大致有以下类型（记住所有大分类，大分类下的内容【基本都是原因】看你能记多少就记多少）

EnvironmentalRisk-External,outsidesphereofinfluence;Political;Environmental;Social

SupplyRisk-SupplyActivities/SupplyRelationships;Sourceofriskissupplier;Single/globalsourcingstrategiesincreasedependenceonindividualsuppliers;maybecausedbyexternalrisks

DemandRisk-Createdbyflowsto/relationswithcustomers;seasonalvariations;changingcustomers’behavior;changendesign;lifecycles

ProcessRisk-Arisefromdefectsininternalprocesses（Bottlenecks/defectsininternalsystems）;internalprocessescaneitheramplifyorabsorbrisk

ControlRisk-Causedbyinternalplanningandcontrolsystems,e.gsizeofsafetystockorlackofinformation

RiskAnalysis

Aimstodefinecriticalpathsamongallidentifiedrisks

Criticalityofriskdeterminedby:

probabilityofriskoccurring;consequencesiftheyoccur

对过去事件的分析归结为：

TheFiveWhysmethod（第一个why问导致事件的原因，第二个why问导致第一个why的原因，以此类推）

其次，ParetoAnalysis是重要方式，同时要记住二八法则。

RiskIdentificationTools

FMECA（FailureModeEffectandCriticalityAnalysis）/RiskRegister

-mapfailuremodes

-identifyeffectsoffailure

-quantifylikelihoodoffailureoccurring

-quantifycriticality

-quantifylevelofdifficultyisdiscoveringfailurebeforeconsequencesaffectcustomer

2.AnalysingRisks

Considerthefeatureoftherisksandanalysetheirpossibleimpact

Twoapproachestoanalysingrisk:

QualitativeandQuantitative

Qualitativeapproach:

takestheriskregisteranddescribesthefeatureofeachentry,perhapsgiving:

natureoftherisk,consequences,likelihoods,scopeandetc.

Quantitativeapproach:

basedon2factors:

thelikelihoodofariskyeventoccurringandtheconsequenceswhentheeventdoesoccur;theimportanceofthese2factorsisthatwecancalculateanexpectedvalueandusethistoprioritiserisks

Example:

LavallePierceau,whichisatransportcompanyinthesouthoffrance,andin2006theyintroducedanewSCinformationsystem（ppt里有个图表，你也要看一下。

。

。

扫描版的实在看不清）,通过此例，需要了解一个公式

Likelihood*Impact=anotionalvaluefortherisk’sseverity（具体数据看表）

RiskClassification

-risksbellow2werenotconsideredworthexamining

-risksfrom3to8weregivensomeattention

-9and10weregivennormalattention

-12to16weregivenmoreattention

-Mostattentionwasfocusedonvaluesabove20

Inreality,managersincludemanyotherfactorsintheirdecisionsthanprobabilityandconsequences,suchas:

Theamountofchangetheycanbringtoarisk-thetemptationistoputmoreeffortintoariskthattheycanactuallyreduce

Cost-Benefitanalysis-concentrateonareaswherethebenefitsaremostsignificantlyhigherthanthecosts.

3.RespondingtoRisk（了解就好，非重要）

Theaimofrespondingtoriskistodefinethemostappropriatewayofdealingwithallriskstothesupplychain

ManagingRisk

Alotofmathematicsisnosubstituteforabitofcommonsenseandanopenmind（Anonymous,2008）

RiskManagementisnotaseparateactivityfrommanagement,itismanagement.（Handy,1999）

Week1ConceptsofSupplyChainManagement基础概念，非重要，但是要了解

Thesupplychainencompasseseveryeffortinvolvedinproducinganddeliveringafinalproduct,fromthesupplier’suppliertothecustomer’scustomer.（Thesupplychaincouncil,2010）

Supplychainmanagement（SCM）isthesystematic,strategiccoordinationofthetraditionalbusinessfunctionsandthetacticsacrossthesebusinessfunctionswithinaparticularcompanyandacrossbusinesseswithinthesupplychain,forthepurposesofimprovingthelongtermperformanceoftheindividualcompaniesandthesupplychainasawhole.（Mentzeretal.,2001）

GlobalSupplyChains

Withadvancesintransportationandcommunicationtechnology,goodsandservicescannowbepotentiallysourcesfromanywherearoundtheworld

Somedrivingforces:

rawmaterials/labor/technologyavailability,cost,expandingmarkets

ManagingSCsinaglobalcontextalsoincreasestherisksinvolved

i.e.longerleadtimes,delays,currencyfluctuations,intellectualpropertyissues,etc.

CurrentSCtrends:

collaboration,e-business,globalization,outsourcing,masscustomization

SCM’sfour‘R’s

Reliability,Responsiveness,Resilience,Relationship

Week2CustomerValueandCustomerLedSupplyChain重要

ValueChain价值链

‘…thesetofallthespecificactionsrequiredtobringaspecificproductthroughthethreecriticalmanagementtasksofanybusiness’（WomackandJones,1996）

Productdevelopment,ordertodelivery,whichisinformationflow,andrawmaterialstofinishedproducts（materialflows.）

Thesupplychainencompasseseveryeffortinvolvedinproducinganddeliveringafinalproduct,fromthesupplier’ssuppliertothecustomer’scustomer（Thesupplychaincouncil,2010）

Thesupplychainisasequenceofeventsintendedtosatisfythecustomer（Thecharteredinstituteoflogisticsandtransport,1998）

SC的功能

Physicalfunction-includesconvertingrawmaterialsintoparts,componentsandfinishedgoodsandtransportingthemfromonepointintheSCtothenext–physicalefficiency-quickest,lowestcost

Marketmediationfunction-ensuresthatthevarietyofproductsreachingthemarketplacematcheswhatcustomerswanttobuy-responsiveness

DemandChainisasupplychainthatemphasizesmarketmediationtogreaterdegreethanitsroleofensuringefficientphysicalsupplyoftheproduct.（deTrevilleetal.,2004）

Productvalueandservicevalue

Totalvaluemadeupof

-Productbenefits,thetangiblebenefitsthatthecustomerdesires

-Servicebenefits,thatarisefromtheconvenience

Itappearsthatcustomerservicebenefitsaremoreimportantthantheproductbenefits

Productbenefitsaremoreeasilyimitated!

DefiningCustomerValue

CustomerValue=Perceivedbenefits–Totalcostofownership

Perceivedbenefits:

productbenefits,servicebenefits,relationalbenefits,imagebenefits

Totalcostofownership:

acquisitioncost,managementcost,timecosts,operatingcost,inventorycost,disposalcost.

CustomerValueobjective:

Theliteratureidentifiesfourmainobjectivesforcustomervalue:

Cost,whichisthecustomer’stransactioncosts（priceandlifecyclecosts）

Lead,whichishowquicklyaneedcanbefulfilled