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译文1
China, taking advantage of global recession, goes on a buying spree
General Motors is doing it. The world's second-largest mining group is doing it. Russia, Brazil and Venezuela are doingit. And China is loving it.
Squeezed between falling profits and the credit crunch, a growing number of troubled corporations and countries areturning to cash-rich China for a bailout. And with foreign assets cheaper than they have been for years, Beijing is goingon an international spending spree.
"The international financial crisis ... is equally a challenge and an opportunity," China's energy czar, Zhang Guobao,wrote recently in the official newspaper People's Daily."The slowdown ... has reduced the price of international energyresources and assets and favors our search for overseas resources."
So far, the government has concentrated on natural-resource deals, securing supplies of oil and minerals in return forlarge amounts of cash. But private Chinese firms are also taking advantage of the crisis in other sectors:
Diesel-enginegiant Weichai Power is expected to buy a French plant that GM is selling off in its struggle to survive.
Though the Chinese economy has also been hit by the crisis, cutting growth by almost half,"what sets China apart isthat Chinese banks have not been so badly hurt, and the policy banks still seem ready to lend" in support of keygovernment objectives, says Erika Downs, a China energy specialist at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
The China Development Bank, for example, is financing China's biggest-ever foreign investment – a $19.5 billion bidby the mostly state-owned Aluminum Corp. of China for an 18 percent slice of Rio Tinto. The Australian miningcompany desperately needs the cash in order to pay off $19 billion in debt over the next two years.
That deal, still to be approved by Australian regulators, is seen here as a pathfinder."It illustrates Chinese statebusiness's strong capacity ... and gathered experience for state-owned firms to operate abroad in the future," explainedan article published earlier this month in People's Daily.
Other recent multibillion-dollar deals include the purchase by China Petrochemical Corp., the country's second-largestoil producer, of Canada's Tanganyika Oil, which works in Syria, and the bid that China Minmetals has made for OZMinerals, an Australian zinc producer on the verge of bankruptcy.
"The amount of money coming out of Beijing suggests they are confident that we are at the bottom of the market,"says Paul Cavey, an analyst with Macquarie Bank. And with China's trade surplus still wide, since imports have falleneven faster than exports,"they still have a lot of money to play with," he adds.
Last week the Chinese government sank $39 billion of that money in three separate deals to secure future oil suppliesfrom Russia, Brazil, and Venezuela.
A $25 billion loan to Russia, whose economy is reeling from plummeting oil prices, won a promise to supply 290,000barrels per day for the next quarter-century and to build a pipeline into China.
"The slowdown in the Russian economy, declining crude prices, and production and the credit crunch have lent theChinese far better bargaining power," wrote Gordon Kwan, head of China energy research at CLSA brokerage, in aresearch note last week.
A $10 billion loan to Brazil, announced during a visit to the country by Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, secured asimilar pledge to provide up to 160,000 barrels of crude a day, while Mr. Xi also signed a deal with Venezuela for up to1 million barrels per day by 2015 in return for another $4 billion from China to top up an existing development fund.
"More than anything else, China always wants security of resources going into the future," says Mr. Cavey. The crisis,and falling asset prices,"open up a significant part of the world," he adds."China will think of investing pretty muchanywhere there are resources, not just the places that other countries don't want to go."
Few expect Beijing to invest in the troubled financial sector, however, despite the hopes some foreign banks haveharbored of attracting Chinese money."Natural resources are so strategic for a country, they can justify investmentsthere, but they can't justify another financial sector deal," says Andy Xie, an independent economist.
China's sovereign wealth fund has lost between half and two-thirds of investments it made over the past two years inMorgan Stanley, Blackstone, and Barclays, Mr. Xie points out.
As China begins to move again on the international scene, taking advantage of low prices, it remains to be seen howmuch political resistance its bids will provoke.
In 2005, political pressure in Washington forced China National Offshore Oil Corp.(CNOOC) to withdraw its bid for theUS oil firm Unocal, even though the Chinese firm offered more money than its rival, Chevron.
"The situation is so bad that there is a desperation now to get money," says Cavey."But it will still be a difficult politicalbalance to strike" for the state-owned firms that are expected to be most active abroad.
Especially touchy will be the question of state assistance for Chinese firms, potentially giving them an advantage overWestern competitors. The China National Petroleum Corp.'s website last week carried a report on the government's yet-unpublished oil and gas development plan, which suggested such assistance is foreseen.
"China will encourage enterprises to develop the exploration and acquisition of overseas resources and will offer low-interest loans and preferential lending rates for major overseas energy investment projects," the report said.
"With low oil prices, we may see Chinese banks playing a bigger role" in funding acquisitions, says Dr. Downs atBrookings."And if it is known that Chinese companies are getting money from state banks at low interest rates, we willsee concern that this support creates a playing field that is not level."
全球衰退成全中国采购狂欢
作者:
Peter Ford
翻译:
CommonData
《基督教科学箴言报》
2009年2月21日
中国正在采购,通用汽车、力拓,俄国、巴西和委内瑞拉都身涉其中。
由于信贷收缩和盈利下降的双重打击,大量陷入麻烦的企业和国家正在指望现金充裕的中国给予救助。
而且,随着海外资产达到多年来的低点,北京正在继续自己的国际采购狂欢。
“国际金融危机......既是一次挑战,也是一次机遇”,中国的能源沙皇张国宝(音)最近在官方报纸《人民日报》上撰文写道。
“增长放缓......令国际能源和资产价格下降,这有利于我们寻找海外资源”。
到目前为止,政府关注的目标都集中在天然资源交易方面,其大量现金投资的回报在于稳定石油和原材料的供应。
不过,中国其他部门的私有公司也利用了这次机会:
柴油发动机巨人潍柴动力准备购买一家法国工厂,为了活命,通用汽车正在出售这家原本属于自己的工厂。
虽然中国经济也遭到危机打击,增长减少几乎一半,“但让中国得以独善其身的是该国银行业所受损害并不严重,而且政策性银行仍然准备放贷”,以支持关键性的政府目标,华盛顿布鲁金斯学会中国能源问题专家艾利卡·当斯认为。
例如,中国开发银行正在为该国有史以来最大的海外投资行为筹措资金——几乎全部国有的中国铝业公司为得到力拓公司百分之十八股份给出了一百九十五亿美元报价。
这家澳大利亚矿业公司需要在今后两年中偿付一百九十亿美元债务,因此迫切需要现金。
这笔仍有待于澳大利亚监管部门认可的交易被看作是一次试探。
“这说明了中国国有企业的强大能量......也为国有公司今后的海外运作提供了借鉴”,本月上旬出版的《人民日报》一篇文章这样解释说。
最近其他一些亿元级别的交易还包括:
该国第二大石油生产商中国石油化工公司收购位于叙利亚的加拿大坦噶尼喀石油公司;以及中国五矿对澳大利亚濒临破产的锌生产商OZ矿业的收购叫价。
“北京大把花钱的举动令人想到他们确信我们已经处于市场底部”,麦格里银行分析师保罗·卡维认为。
而且中国的贸易盈余仍然丰厚,因为其进口下降的比出口更快,“他们仍有大量金钱用于挥霍”,他补充说。
上周,为了保证今后从俄国、巴西和委内瑞拉获得稳定的石油供应,中国政府在三宗独立的交易中掷出三百九十亿美元。
首先为经济因石油价格下跌而摇摇欲坠的俄国提供二百五十亿美元贷款,换来的是在今后四分之一世纪中每天得到二十九万桶石油供应的承诺,以及修建一条通往中国的石油管道。
CLSA中国能源研究负责人关荣乐上周在一份研究记录中写道,“放缓的俄国经济,下跌之中的原油价格和产量,以及信贷收缩,这都为中国讨价还价提供了极大的便利”。
另外,巴西也得到了一百亿美元贷款,这是在中国国家副主席习近平访问该国期间宣布的,中国同样得到了每天提供十六万桶原油的承诺。
同时,习先生还与委内瑞拉签署协议,向一家开发基金注资四十亿美元,作为回报,到2015年该国每天要向中国提供一百万桶原油。
“最重要的是,中国总是意欲保证未来资源的安全”,卡维先生表示。
这场危机,以及下跌的资产价格,“开放了世界上最为重要的部分”,他补充说。
“中国将会考虑在任何拥有资源的地方投资,而不仅仅是那些其他国家不愿去的所在”。
然而,尽管一些海外银行期望自己也能成为中国金钱的避风港,但很少有人认为北京会投资在麻烦缠身的金融部门上面。
“自然资源对一个国家来说有着战略意义,对此他们可以有所交代,但无法就一些金融行业的交易自圆其说”,独立经济学家谢国忠表示。
过去两年中,中国主权财富基金先后在摩根士丹利、黑石和巴克莱身上损失五到七成投资,谢先生指出。
当中国接着价格低廉的机会再次走上国际舞台时,它的报价将遭到多大的政治阻力,仍有待于观察。
2005年,尽管当时中国海外石油公司(中海油)报出比竞争对手雪佛龙高得多的报价,但在华盛顿的强力政治干预下,该公司最终被迫撤销对美国石油公司尤尼科的收购。
“现在局势如此糟糕,以至于大家会为了弄到钱而不顾一切”,卡维表示。
但对那些被认为在海外极为活跃的国有企业来说,“政治天平仍然难以平衡”。
尤为敏感的是中国公司被质疑获得国家帮助,这令其在与西方公司的竞争中获得不少潜在优势。
上周,中国石油公司网站曾报道,政府仍未正式发表的石油和天然气发展规划中预计将出现该类资助条款。
“中国会鼓励企业勘探、取得海外资源,并将为重要的海外能源投资项目提供低息贷款和优惠贷款利率”,该报道表示。
“伴随低石油价格”,我们可以看到中国的银行在收购资金中“发挥更大作用”,布鲁金斯学会的当斯博士认为。
“如果中国公司都知道以极低利率从国有银行中弄钱,我们担心这种支持会导致一场不公平的竞争”。
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