caoweiadjusted.docx
- 文档编号:9089563
- 上传时间:2023-02-03
- 格式:DOCX
- 页数:11
- 大小:315.82KB
caoweiadjusted.docx
《caoweiadjusted.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《caoweiadjusted.docx(11页珍藏版)》请在冰豆网上搜索。
caoweiadjusted
WhyChina’sNuclearEnergyIndustryhasFailed
CaoWei
PhDCandidate
SchoolofGovernment
PekingUniversity
CaoweiPKU@
October2,2008
Abstract:
Historically,Chinabecameoneofthe“firstmovers”innuclearpowerbyexplodingitsfirstatomicbombin1964,underverytougheconomicandpoliticalcircumstances,thussuccessfullyenteringintothe“NuclearPowerClub”.ButwhenChinabegantoworkonnuclearenergyinthelate1970s,itseemedveryhesitantandunsuccessfulcomparedtoothernuclearpowers.Theresearchquestionofthisstudyis:
asacountrywithrelativelygoodnuclearindustryfoundations,andwithmotivationtodevelopthatindustryfurther,whyhasChina’snuclearenergyindustryfailedoverthepast30years?
Thedistinguishingfeatureofmyresearchisusingtheperspectiveofinnovationtheorytoanalyzenucleartechnology,andItrytobuildupontheconnectionbetweenthestructureofnucleartechnologyandthepatternofindustrialdevelopment.AfterabriefcomparativeanalysisofthenuclearenergyhistoriesofAmericaandFrance,IconstructageneralframeworktoexploreChina’sindustrialperformance.Theconclusionofthestudyisthat:
theinitialproblemsthatChinafacedandsolvedatthebeginningofitsindustrialdevelopmentaretheprimaryreasonwhytherehasbeennosuccessinthenuclearenergyindustry.
I.ResearchQuestion:
ThisresearchwasinspiredbyapracticalquestionthathasplaguedChina’snuclearenergydevelopmentforalongtime.In2006,ChinadecidedtoimportanAP1000advancedPWRreactorfromtheUS,inordertoimproveitsnuclearenergyindustrybylearningaboutthereactor’stechnology.Butthereweregreatdebatesregardingthatindustrialpolicy.ManypeopledoubtedwhetherChina’snuclearenergyindustrycouldgoforwardfromthen,becausetoomanytimesinthepastpurchasesofuselesstechnologynotonlydidn’thelpChinadevelopasuccessfulnuclearenergyindustry,butalsocreatedanawfulmess.
Historically,Chinawasoneofthe“firstmovers”innuclearpowerbyexplodingitsfirstatomicbombin1964,underverytougheconomicandpoliticalcircumstances,thussuccessfullyintrudedenteringintothe“NuclearPowerClub”.Aswithothernuclearpowercountries,Chinasuccessfullydevelopedanuclearweapon,whichhelpedlaythefoundationsofnucleartechnologyandanuclearindustry.ButwhenChinabegantoworkonnuclearenergyinthelate1970s,itseemedveryhesitantandlesssuccessfulcomparedtoothernuclearpowers.UnderstandingtheinferiorperformanceofChina’snuclearindustryperformancecanbeapproachedfrommanydifferentperspectives,suchasbyconsideringwhatproportionofthecountry’senergyusedisnuclearenergy,orlookingatdevelopmentspeedandtechnologicalcapability.Infact,evenatpresent,Chinastillhasn’tfoundtheproperwaytoprogressinthisindustry.Thusmyresearchquestionis:
asacountrywithrelativelygoodfoundationsinthenuclearindustry,andwithmotivationtodevelopthatindustryfurther,whyhasChina’snuclearenergyindustryfailedoverthepast30years?
ThatChina’sdevelopmentperformanceinnuclearenergyhasbeenpoorisamatterofconsensuswithintheindustry.Howeverfirstweshoulddefine“developmentperformance”asthedependentvariableoftheresearch.IselectthreeindexestomeasureChina’satomicenergyindustryperformance.Table1comparesfivecountries’developmentspeed,andwecanseethatChinahasthelongesttimefromfirstatombombexplosiontofirstnuclearpowerplantconstruction.Chart1indicatesthatChinaalsohasthesmallestpercentageofitsoverallenergyconsumptionfromnuclearenergy.AndPicture1showsChina’smessynuclearenergydevelopmentsituation.Sincetheearly1980s,Chinahaspurchased4typesofnuclearpowerplantsfrom4countries,andatthesametimecreatedsomedomesticallyaswell.Havingfiveentirelydifferentkindsofnuclearplanttechnologiesgatheredbyonecountryisverystrangeinthehistoryofnuclearenergy.Inbrief,China’sbadindustryperformancecanbeseenfromtheslowpaceofitsnucleartechnologydevelopment,fromthelowpercentageofnuclearenergythatthecountryuses,andtheoverabundanceofreactortypes.
Table1Timedifferencefromnuclearbombtonuclearenergy
FirstAtomicBomb
FirstNuclearPowerPlant
Dif
USA
1945
1957
12
USSR
1949
1954
5
ENG
1952
1956
4
FRA
1960
1956/1977
6
CHN
1964
1991
27
TherearemanyresearchprojectsandviewpointsthattrytoexplainChina’snuclearenergyproblemfromvariousangles.Butpreviousresearchhasalwayssimplyattributedthelowindustrialperformancetomattersofstrategyorinstitutions.Otherviewpoints,fromforexamplepolicydebates,attributethefailureofChina’snuclearenergyindustrytocertainwrongdevelopmentideas,ortosomedepartments’“selfinterestedaction”,whichhindertheindustryoverall.Allthesephenomenahaveoccurredhistorically.Howeverthesekindsofexplanationshavetwocrucialdefects.Firstly,withoutsolidtheoreticalsupport,theseexplanationscannotreachthedeeperlevelsofthequestion,andmaynotsatisfypeople’scuriosityonthismatter.Forexample,ifaresearcherarguesthatChinafailedinnuclearenergybecauseoftheabsenceofacoherentlong-termnational-levelstrategy,theyalsomustexplainwhythatstrategydoesnotexist.Isitbecauseofpolicymakers’imperfectinformation?
Dopolicymakingprocedureshamperprogress,orarethereotherexternalvariablesinaffect?
Secondly,previouslyresearchersmayhaveproducedsomereasonableexplanations,buttheycannotformacoherentlogicthatcoversalltheindependentvariablesthatotherresearchersmaybringforthasachallenge.Allinall,thereisnoforcefulexplanationoftheseissuesineitheracademicresearchorpracticalcircles.
Beforegoingintothehypothesisandarguments,inordertofindtheindependentvariableandconstructasolidcausallink,weshouldstartbyanalyzinggeneralindustrialproblems.Acountry’sindustrialperformancecanpotentiallybeinfluencedbymanyfactors.Inthenuclearenergyindustry,state-levelstrategyandlongtimeindustrialpoliciesareimportant,orevendecisiveindevelopmentperformance.Butstrategiesandpoliciesarealsoformedoreffectedbyseveralotherfactors,suchasenergystructure,technologicalcapability,thesystemofadministrativemanagementand,sometimes,internationalsituationsanddiplomaticpolicies.Allthesefactorsmayinfluencethepolicyoutcomesandfinallytheindustrialperformance.Thismakestheproblemmorecomplicated.SothekeypointinansweringChina’snuclearenergyquestioniswhetherwecanfindafinalpersuasiveindependentvariabletoconnectinaseriesallthevariables(factors),andwhetherwecanuseacoherentlogictodescribethehistory—ahistorythatseemscomplicatedanddifficulttounravel.
Chart1:
Proportionofnuclearenergy(Chinahaslessthan2%;theworldaverageisalmost17%)
Picture1:
China’snuclearenergyindustrylayout
II.Hypotheses
Myresearchmainlyreliesontechnologyinnovationtheory,whileahistoricalcomparativemethodisapplied.Iuseinnovationtheorytostudy,describe,andclassifynuclearpowerplanttechnology,andtotrytobuildtheconnectionbetweenthetechnologystructureanalysisandindustrialdevelopmentpattern.ToexplainChina’sindustrialperformance,ageneralframeworkwillbeconstructedafterwhichIundertakeabriefcomparativeresearchstudyofthenuclearenergydevelopmenthistoryandpatternsinAmericaandFrance.
Thisresearchismadeupofthreebasichypotheses.Thefirstrelatestotechnology.Thesecondrelatestothegeneralframeworkofthenucleardevelopmentpattern.Thethirdhypothesisisdeducedfromtheformertwo,andgivesatemporaryanswertotheresearchquestion.
Hypothesis1:
Thefirsthypothesisprovidesanunderstandingofnuclearenergyfromtheinnovationperspective.Nuclearpowerplantsarea“heterogeneous”and“marginal”technology.The“heterogeneous”charactermeansthatnuclearpowerisascience-basedtechnologyembeddedinconventionalenergyinstrumentsthroughoutthewholestructure.Such“embeddedness”resultsingreatpotentialforconflictbetweenthetwodominatingsectorsandtwodevelopmentpatterns.“Marginal”technologymeansthatnuclearenergyisarelativelyreplaceabletechnology.Thisisbecausethenuclearsafetyproblemhasstillnotbeencompletelysolvedandcontinuestodominatenuclearpowerplantdesign;henceindustrydevelopmentisvolunerablecomparedtootherenergies.
Frommypointofview,“heterogeneous”istheforemostimportantcharacterofnuclearenergy.Thischaracteristiccanbeanalyzedbythestructureofthetechnologyusinginnovationtheory.Justaswithothertechnologies,therearemanydifferentapproachestorealizingthefunctionofnuclearfissionpowergenerationandelectricenergytransformation.Basedontechnologythathasevolvedinhistory,thedominatedesignofnucleartechnologyatpresentislightwaterreactors(LWRs),includingpressurized-waterreactors(PWRs)andboilingwaterreactors(BWRs).Lightwaterisconsideredinferiortoothertechnologies,yetitdominatesthemarketforpowerreactors.ThisislargelyduetotheearlyadoptionandheavydevelopmentbytheUSNavyoflightwaterforsubmarinepropulsion(Cowan,1990).Theprincipaldifferencebetweenanuclearpowerstationandacoal-firedpowerplantisthenatureofthefuel.Nuclearenergydoesnotcomefromchemicalreactions,suchasburning,butfromnuclearreactions.Thenuclearreactormerelyreplacestheboilerinaconventionalfossilfuelpowerstation(MakhijianiandSaleska,
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- caoweiadjusted
![提示](https://static.bdocx.com/images/bang_tan.gif)