中国的汇率政策和亚洲贸易外文翻译.docx
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中国的汇率政策和亚洲贸易外文翻译.docx
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中国的汇率政策和亚洲贸易外文翻译
中文3577字
本科毕业论文外文翻译
外文题目:
CHINA’SEXCHANGERATEPOLICYANDASIANTRADE
出处:
NewFinance,2009(9)
作者:
AliciaGarcia-Herrero,TuuliKoivu
原文:
Abstract
ThispapershowsempiricallythatChina’stradebalanceissensitivetofluctuationsintherealeffectiveexchangerateoftherenminbi.However,thecurrentsizeofthetradesurplusissuchthatexchangeratepolicyalonewillprobablynotbeabletoaddresstheimbalance.ThepotentialreductioninthetradesurplusresultingfromanincreaseintherenminbiexchangerateislimitedmainlybecauseChineseimportsdonotreactasexpectedtoarenminbiappreciation–theytendtofallratherthanincrease.ByestimatingbilateralimportequationsforChinaanditsmajortradepartners,wefindthatthereactionforimportsisgenerallyconfirmedforChina’stradewithSoutheastAsiancountries.ThatresultmightbeattributabletoAsia’sverticalintegration,asalargeshareofChineseimportsfromSoutheastAsiaarere-exported.WealsofindthattotalexportsfromanumberofAsiancountriesreactnegativelytoarenminbiappreciation,whichpointstoadependenceofAsiancountries’exportsonthoseofChina.
Keywords:
China,trade,exports,realexchangerate
I.Introduction
China’sshareinworldtradehasincreasedextremelyrapidlyduringthepastyears.Infact,itisalreadyoneofthelargestexportersintheworld,togetherwithGermanyandtheUnitedStates.
Untilrecently,China’stradebalancewasveryclosetozero.AccordingtoChina'scustomsstatistics,itstradesurplusamountedtomereUSD32billion(or1.7%ofGDP)in2004(Graph1).However,since2005thetradesurplushasballooned:
itreachednearlyUSD180billionin2006(closeto7%ofGDP)andincreasedfurtherin2007,tomorethan10%ofGDP.
Ontheonehand,Chinesepolicymakersappeartobemaintaininganartificiallylowexchangeratefortherenminbisoastoprofitfromexternaldemandandachieveamuchneededhighgrowthrate.Ontheotherhand,giventhatpricesmaystillplayonlyalimitedroleinsupplyanddemanddecisionsinChina’stransitionaleconomy,doubtshavebeenraisedthattheexchangeratecanbeaneffectivetoolinreducingthetradesurplus.
LinkedtothefirstargumentisthefactthatChinaisfacingstrongpressurefromindustrialcountriestoappreciatetherenminbi.Therealeffectiveexchangerate(REER)oftherenminbirosesteeplyfrom1994untilend-1997buttendedtodeclineafterthatuntilthemovetoamoreflexibleexchangerateregimewasannouncedinJuly2005.Thereaftertherenminbihasappreciatedsomewhatinrealterms.Thequestioniswhether–andtowhatextent–thesharpincreaseinthetradesurpluscanbeexplainedbysucharealdepreciation.
ThelargesizeofChina’stradesurplusmakestheissueimportantnotonlyforChinabutalsofortherestoftheworld.Theexistingliteratureisnotconclusive.ThelackofappropriatedataandsufficientlylongtimeserieshasdiscouragedresearchonthelinkbetweentherenminbiexchangerateandChina’strade.Sincethesummerof2003,whendiscussionsontheundervaluationoftherenminbicametotheforefront,researchonChina’sexchangeratepolicyhasblossomed,butmuchofithasfocusedonestimatingthelong-runequilibriumexchangerateforChinaorexploringwhatkindofexchangerateregimebestsuitstheChineseeconomy.Whilebothquestionsareclearlyrelevant,themosturgentissue–giventhesizeofglobalimbalances–iswhetherChinashouldusecurrencyappreciationasatooltoreduceitshugetradesurplus.
Ourpaperanalyzesthisquestionempiricallyusingcointegrationanalysis.Accordingtoourresults,arealappreciationoftherenminbiwouldreduceChina’stradesurplusinthelongrun,buttheeffectwouldbelimited.Therelativelysmallimpact–comparedwiththesizeoftheimbalance–ismainlyexplainedbythepeculiarpriceelasticitywefindforimports:
namely,Chineseimportsarenegativelyaffectedbytherenminbi’srealappreciation.Byestimatingbilateralimportequations,wefindthatimportsfromAsiancountriestendtofallbutnotthosefromothercountries.ThisapparentlycounterintuitiveresultmightwellbeexplainedbytheverticalintegrationthatcharacterisesintraregionaltradeinAsia:
ChineseimportsfromtherestofSoutheastAsiaaremostlygearedtowardsre-export.Inaddition,weshowevidencethattheSoutheastAsiancountriesdonotseemabletocompensateforthereductionintheirexportstoChinabyincreasingexportstoothercountries,astheirtotalexportsaregenerallynegativelyaffectedbytherenminbi’sappreciation.Inotherwords,exportsfromSoutheastAsiancountriesseemtobeacomplementtoexportsfromChinaratherthanasubstituteforthem.
Therestofthepaperisorganizedasfollows.Section2reviewstheexistingliterature.Section3describesthemethodologyandthedataused.Section4presentstheresultsonhowChina’sexportsandimportsreacttochangesintheexchangerateanddemand.InSection5,wedigdeeperintotheissueofwhyChineseimportsdonotgetaboostfromtherenminbi’sappreciation;todoso,weestimatebilateraltradeequationswithChina’smaintradepartnersandthenanalysetheexportequationsofselectedAsiancountries.Section6concludes.
IV.ResultsforChina’simportandexportequations
Asapreliminarystep,wetestfortheorderofintegrationofthevariablesincludedinouranalysis.WeusetheaugmentedDickey-Fuller(ADF)testsfortheexistenceofaunitroot.Nearlyallvariablesarefoundtobenon-stationaryinlevelsbutstationaryinfirstdifferences.WethentestfortheexistenceofcointegrationvectorsusingtheJohansenprocedure.Wefindatleastonecointegratingvectorforeachvariablegroup.AsproposedbyPhillipsandLoretan(1991),thepresenceofthecointegratingvectorsallowsustoestimatearegressionofthelaggeddeterminantsandtheirdifferencesthroughanon-linearleastsquaresapproach.Suchanapproachwillyieldunbiasedandconsistentestimatesofthelong-runandshort-runparameters.
Besidesregressionsonexportandimportequationsforourfullsample(1994–2005),wealsoransuchregressionsforashorterperiod(2000–05)thatconcentratesontheperiodofWTOinfluence.Inbothcases,weconsideritimportanttodistinguishbetweenprocessedandordinarytradeand,therefore,runseparateequationsforeachoftheminthecaseofbothexportsandimports.Themaximumnumberofshort-termlagsintroducedintheequationswasthree,andweultimatelyincludedonlythosethatwerestatisticallysignificant.
ThefullresultsfortheexportequationscanbefoundinTableA2intheAppendix.16Asexpected,long-runexchangerateelasticitiesofChina’sexports–bothprocessedandordinaryarenegativeandsignificantinourfullsampleandalsoafterWTOentry.Whenappropriatelytransformed(seeTable2),theestimatedlong-runimpactoftherealexchangerateisaround–1.3forprocessedexportsforbothperiods.Forordinaryexports,itdropsfrom–2.3measuredforthewholeperiodto–1.6forthemorerecentperiod.Ourresultsareveryclosetothosefoundbyotherauthorsusingcointegrationanalysis(–1.5fortotalexportsinLauetal(2004)and–1.3inShuandYip(2006)).Theyarealsosimilartotheestimatedexportpriceelasticitiesformajorindustrialcountries(–1.5and–1.6fortheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdom,respectively,accordingtoHooperetal(1998)).
Forbothordinaryandprocessedexports,thelong-runpositiveeffectofworlddemandonChineseexportsisverysmallandnotstatisticallysignificantinourfullsample,butitdoesbecomesignificantafterWTOmembership.ThatresultisinlinewiththeideathatChinawasfacingconsiderablebarrierstoprofitingfromothercountries’growthbeforeitsWTOentry.Inaddition,forthemostrecentsample,theincomeelasticityofChineseexportsisverycloseto1,asexpected.
TheestimatedcoefficientsoftheimportequationsareshowninTableA3intheAppendix.Demandfactorsseemtoplayarelativelymoderateroleinexplainingpastimports.Inthelatersubsample,importsforprocessingdoreactpositivelytoexternaldemand,measuredbyprocessedexports,anddomesticindustrialoutputincreasesordinaryimports,asexpected.
Asonewouldexpect,theFDIstockappearstohaveapositiveeffectinthelongrunbothonordinaryimportsandonimportsforprocessing.Finally,areductioninimporttariffsseemstofosterimportsforprocessinginthelongrun.19Asforexports,dummiesfortheChineseNewYearaswellasforDecemberweresignificantinmostcases.
Finally,theexchangerateelasticityofimportsisalwaysnegativeandgenerallysignificant.Theonlyexceptionisimportsforprocessinginthelattersubperiod,forwhichthenegativecoefficientontheexchangerateissignificantonlyatthe15%level.Theexchangeratehasnotonlyadirectlinktoimportsforprocessingbutalsoanindirectlinkviaprocessedexports.Inotherwords,arenminbirealappreciationtendstoreduceimportsratherthantoincreasethem.Althoughcounterintuitiveatfirstsight,suchnegativeelasticityhasalreadybeenreportedinsomeofthemostrecentliterature,suchasMarquezandSchindler(2006).Thefindingbasicallyimpliesthatimports–evenordinaryones–aremoresensitivetotheloweringofexportsinducedbytherenminbirealappreciationthantoariseinpurchasingpower.
VI.Conclusions
Duringthepastfewyears,therehasbeengrowingdiscussionbothinChinaandininternationalforumsonthedesirabilityofarenminbiappreciation.ManyhavearguedthatexchangeratepolicywouldnotservethepurposeofreducingChina’slargetradesurplus.Thispapershows
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- 中国 汇率 政策 亚洲 贸易 外文 翻译
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