价格形态百科喇叭形6.docx
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价格形态百科喇叭形6.docx
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价格形态百科喇叭形6
1、BroadeningBottom
(性趋形线点时破测量)性质:
中性,偏熊;趋势:
前驱必须是下跌趋势,后续取决于突破方向(下破时表现要比上破表现好得多,可见,喇叭底更像熊市持续形态);形:
喇叭口扩张型;线:
上上倾,下下倾,形态中价格趋势下倾(可参考MA);点:
上下各两点,四点成型;时:
3个月(60根K线左右?
);破:
破趋势线,或破最高最低;测:
最高-最低;量:
锯齿状,大方向是价涨量增价跌量减。
由表可见=>>
(1)喇叭顶底的下跌表现差不多,说明该类形态体现了价格的动荡,得不到支撑就容易走低。
(2)下跌趋势后形成的喇叭底向下突破表现好,而上涨之后的形成的喇叭顶向上突破虽然表现一般,却大大好于喇叭底的向上突破。
并且,喇叭顶的目标达成率也远高于底。
可见,顺势交易的重要性,哪怕经过形态的动荡洗礼,顺着原趋势的突破总是安全些。
喇叭底的交易策略是形态内交易,突破作为平仓信号。
问题
1).测算收益率时突破按哪个突破标准的?
两种突破标准,破最高却不破上趋怎么算?
2).看统计章节的说法,好像喇叭底是会结束的,所以之后不会继续扩张,突破了水平高低点也是突破,确认一下。
RESULTSSNAPSHOT
Upsidebreakouts
Appearance
Pricetrendisdownward,leadingtotheformation(意思是形态之前的趋势是下跌的).Megaphoneappearancewithhigherhighsandlowerlowsthatwidenovertime.Breakoutisupward.
ReversalOrConsolidation
Short-term(lessthan3months)bullishreversal(形态前提是前驱下跌趋势,故而向上突破时对趋势的反转)
FailureRate
2%(本形态无强烈熊牛特征,故失败模式仅有5%失败)
AverageRise
25%,withmostlikelygainlessthan10%(<40%基准)
VolumeTrend
Ragged,butusuallyfollowsprice:
risesaspricesrise,fallswhenpricesfall.(锯齿状,大方向是价涨量增价跌量减)
Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetarget
59%(<80基准)
SurprisingFinding
Partialriseattheendoftheformationpredictsadownsidebreakout67%ofthetimeandpartialdeclinespredictanupsidebreakout80%ofthetime.(局部下跌的正确率80%,高于局部上涨的67%)
Seealso
BroadeningFormations,Right-AngledandAscending;BroadeningFormations,Right-AngledandDescending;BroadeningTops;BroadeningWedges,Ascending;BroadeningWedges,Descending
Downwardbreakouts
Appearance
Pricetrendisdownward,leadingtotheformation.Megaphoneappearancewithhigherhighsandlowerlowsthatwidenovertime.Breakoutisdownward.
ReversalOrConsolidation
Short-term(upto3months)bearishconsolidation(前驱是下跌,故而继续下跌是持续)
FailureRate
6%
AverageDecline
27%,withmostlikelydeclinebetween15%and20%(>20%基准)
VolumeTrend
Ragged,butusuallyfollowsprice:
risesaspricesrise,fallswhenpricesfall.
Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetarget
70%
Seealso
BroadeningFormations,Right-AngledandAscending;BroadeningFormations,Right-AngledandDescending;BroadeningTops;BroadeningWedges,Ascending;BroadeningWedges,Descending
WhenIcompiledthestatisticsforbroadeningbottoms,Ihadtodoublechecktheresultsbecausetheywereunusual.Broadeningbottomswithdownsidebreakoutsoutperformthosewithupsidebreakouts.Bullishformationstypicallyhavegainsaveragingabout40%;broadeningbottomshavegainsofjust25%.Bearishformationsdeclineabout20%,onaverage,butbearishbroadeningbottomsshowlossesof27%.Thisinformationtellsmethateventhoughyoucanhaveanupsidebreakout,thechartpatternisessentiallyabearishone.Pricesdonotriseallthatfarbeforeretreating,andwhentheydobreakoutdownward,thedeclineisaboveaverageinseverity.统计喇叭底数据时,我不得不多次确认,因为数据太不寻常了。
向下突破的喇叭底表现要比向上突破的优异得多。
牛市形态一般都有平均40%的收益;而喇叭底只有25%。
熊市形态一般下跌20%左右,然后熊市喇叭底跌27%。
由此我得出结论,尽管喇叭底可能会向上突破,但该形态实为下跌形态。
价格向上突破时未必会上涨太久,但当下跌突破时,跌幅会超过一般下跌形态。
Themostlikelygains—computedusingafrequencydistributionofthereturns—areaboutwhatyouwouldexpect:
10%forupsidebreakoutsandarelativelyhigh15%to20%forbroadeningbottomswithdownsidebreakouts.Thefailureratesarealsoremarkablysmall:
just2%and6%forupsideanddownsidebreakouts,respectively.Anythingthatisunder20%Iconsideracceptable.Onesurprisingfindingconcernspartialrisesanddeclines,wherepricesbeginmovingacrosstheformationtotheoppositeside,reversecourse,andstageabreakout.Whenpricesbeginmovingdownfromthetopandreverse,80%oftheformationsstageanupsidebreakout.Fordownsidebreakouts,thescoreisarespectable67%(twooutofthreeshowthisbehavior).收益率:
最可能,向上突破10%,向下突破略高些15%-20%。
失败率:
出奇的低,向上2%,向下6%。
任何低于20%的失败率我认为都是可以接受的。
局部上涨/下跌:
局部上升和下降是一个令人瞩目的特点。
价格从顶部向下,局部下跌后反转,80%的情况下会向上突破;反之,底部弹起部分,调头向下后的向下突破概率67%。
Tour
Somemaintainthatabroadeningbottomdoesnotexist.Theysimplylumpeverybroadeningpatternintothebroadeningtopcategory.Idecidedtoseparatethetwoontheoffchancethattheirperformanceorbehaviordiffers.Youmaywanttocombinethestatisticsordoyourownresearch.许多人认为喇叭底不存在,所有渐宽形态都可归入喇叭顶。
我坚持区分这两类渐宽形态,因为它们性能表现和行为模式有所不同(二者向下突破时区别不大,但是向上突破时,无论涨幅还是目标达成率,喇叭顶的表现远好于喇叭底)。
Youmaybewonderingwhatdifferentiatesabroadeningbottomfromabroadeningtop.Abroadeningbottomhasapricetrendleadingdowntothestartoftheformation;abroadeningtophaspricestrendingup.ThisdifferentiationisanarbitrarydesignationImadetoseparatethetwoformationtypes.Icouldhaveusedtheirlocationinthe12-monthpricerange(thoselocatedintheupperhalfaretops,therestarebottoms).However,thismethodologyposesaproblemwhentheformationisnearthecenteroftheyearlypricerange:
Isitatoporabottom?
Usingapricetrendleadingtoaformationisnosure-firesolutioneither.Ifthepricetrendisnearlyhorizontalorchangesabruptlyjustbeforetheformationstarts,thenIpretendIamamovingaverage.Woulda90-daymovingaveragebetrendingupordown?
Onceyouknowthetrend,youcanthenfigureoutwhetheryouaredealingwithabroadeningtoporbottom.喇叭顶与喇叭底有何区别?
取决于形态出现之前的价格走势,之前是下跌的就是喇叭底,反之是喇叭顶。
我本可以根据形态在一年的价格走势中的相对位置来区分二者,但这样会带来一个问题,如果形态在中间位置怎么办?
当然,根据之前的走势来判断也不能解决所有问题,比如水平走势之后的形态怎么划分?
均线是个解决办法,比如根据90日均线的走势。
总之,二者是可以区分开的。
Figure1.1isanexampleofabroadeningbottom.Thisparticularoneiscalledafive-pointreversalbecausetherearefivealternatingtouches,twominorlowsandthreeminorhighs.Afive-pointreversalisalsorare:
Ilocatedonly5inthe77broadeningbottomsIexamined.图1.1是喇叭底的例子,同时也是个特别的模式,因为有五个触点故称为五点反转。
两个低点,三个小高点。
五点反转是种少见的情况,在77个喇叭底形态中我只发现了5个。
ThepricetrendbeginsmovingdowninlateAugustandreachesalow2daysbeforetheformationbegins.Yes,pricesdomoveupforseveraldays,leadingtothefirsttouchofthetoptrendline,butIstillconsidertheoverallpricetrendtobemovingdowntotheformation.ThisparticularchartpatternshowsthepartialdeclineImentionedearlier.Pricesmovedownfrom26to241/2,thenreversecourseandshootoutthetop.Thestockreachedahighof381/2justoverayearlater.价格从8月开始下跌,形态开始两天前达到最低点。
的确,价格在形态开始前几天上涨的,但是要考虑总体价格趋势,而非紧邻的几天。
本例中出现了局部下跌,从26跌倒241/2,然后反转突破。
一年后达到最高点381/2。
IdentificationGuidelines
Table1.1liststheidentificationguidelinesforbroadeningbottoms.Asmentionedearlier,adecliningpricetrendprecedesabroadeningbottom.Evenifpricesrisejustbeforetheformationbegins,ignoreit.Itisstillabottom.Thisarbitrarydesignationalsomakesintuitivesense:
Abottomshouldappearattheendofadowntrend,notwhenpricesareclimbingtothemoon.趋:
喇叭底的前提是先发生一波下跌趋势。
Theshapeoftheformationisdistinct.Itremindsmeofchaostheorywheresmalldisturbancesoscillatebackandforth,thensometimesgrowunbounded,wreakinghavoc.Inthestockmarket,pricesreachnewhighsthencrossoverandmakenewlows.Whenyoudrawatrendlineacrosstheminorhighsandanotherconnectingtheminorlows,theformationlookslikeamegaphone.形:
该形态是明确的。
它让我想起往复波动的混沌理论。
在股票市场,价格创出新高然后向下创出新低。
高点连线的趋势线与低点连线的趋势线看起来像喇叭口。
Thetwotrendlinesdrawnacrosstheminorhighsandlowsareimportant.Thetoptrendlineshouldslopeup;thebottomoneshouldslopedown.Thedivergingtrendlinesdistinguishthebroadeningbottomfromothertypesofformations,suchastheright-angledbroadeningformation(whichhasonehorizontaltreiidline)orthebroadeningwedge(bothtrendlinesslopeinthesamedirection).Soitisimportantthatbothtrendlineshaveaslopethatisoppositeeachother(thatis,thetopslopesupandthebottomslopesdown).线:
上方趋势线倾斜向上;下方趋势线倾斜向下。
扩散的趋势线使喇叭底区别于其他形态。
所以两条趋势线倾向相反是重要的。
Abroadeningbottomneedsatleasttwominorhighsandtwominorlowstobeavalidformation.Anythingfewermeansyouareincorrectlyidentifyingtheformation.Whatisaminorhighorlow?
Aminorhighiswhenpricestrendup,thendropbackdown,leavingaclearlydefinedpeak.Aminorlowisjustthesamethingflippedupsidedown:
Pricesmovelower,thenheadbackupleavingaclearlydefinedvalley.Figure1.1showsfiveminorhighsorlows,labeledbynumbers.Theoddnumberstagtheminorhighsandtheevennumbersaretheminorlows.Letmestressthattheminorhighsandlowsneednotbealternating,asinFigure1.1.Justaslongasyoucancountatleasttwopeaksandtwovalleys—wherevertheymayappear—thatisfine.点:
两个低点与两个高点是必须的。
Thereisnothingmagicalinthevolumetrend.Iperformedlinearregressionfromdiestartofeachformationtotheendpoint(notthebreakoutpointthatisusuallyamonthbeyondtheendoftheformation)andfoundthatvolumerisesabout58%or59%(upsideanddownsidebreakouts,respectively)ofthetime.Thatisjustalittlebetterthanacointoss,certainlynotstrongenoughtomakeadefinitivestatement.Ifyoulookcloselyatmostbroadeningbottoms,youwillfindthatvolumeusuallyfollowsprice.InFigure1.1,thepricedeclinebetweenpeak1andtrough2showsarecedingvolumetrend.Whenpricesheadupfrompoint2topoint3,sodoesvolume.Onethingiscertain:
Volumeisirregularandtherising-allingtrendisonlyageneralguidelineoftenbroken.Whenselectingabroadeningbottom,Iignorethevolumepattern.量:
对于成交量没有特别要求。
Thebreakoutpointisdifficulttoidentifyinabroadeningformationasitisdeveloping.Inretrospect,itiseasier.Ilookfortheplacewherepricespiercetheupordowntrendlineormakeanextendedmove.Ifpricespiercethetrendline,thenthepenetrationpointbecomesthebreakoutpoint.Ifpricesmoveupandfollowalongthetoptrendlinewithoutpiercingit,thenIbacktracktothepriorminorhighanddrawahorizontallineforwardintimeuntilpricescrossit.Whenthathappens,thatisthebreakoutpoint.
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