九07年美国次贷危机American subprime mortgage crisis in nine and 07.docx
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九07年美国次贷危机American subprime mortgage crisis in nine and 07.docx
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九07年美国次贷危机Americansubprimemortgagecrisisinnineand07
九07年美国次贷危机(Americansubprimemortgagecrisisinnineand07)
07U.S.subprimemortgagecrisis2008-05-1917:
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Subprimemortgagecrisisin07years
First,thedefinitionofsubprimemortgagecrisisintheUnitedStates
ThesubprimemortgagecrisisintheUnitedStatesreferstothefinancialmarketcrisiscausedbytheinsolvencyofthedebtorintherealestatemarket.ItreferstoastormthathappenedintheUnitedStatesduetothebankruptcyofthesubprimemortgageinstitutions,theclosureoftheinvestmentfundandtheviolentvolatilityofthestockmarket.Ithasledtoaloomingshortageofliquidityintheworld'smajorfinancialmarkets.ThesubprimemortgagecrisisintheUnitedStatesbegantoemergegraduallyinthespringof2006.August2007swepttheworld'smajorfinancialmarketssuchastheUnitedStates,theEuropeanUnionandjapan.Thesubprimemortgageloanisrelativetothemortgageloanwithbettercreditcondition.Throughtheformofmortgage,tolow-income,noorlackofsufficientrepaymentabilitytoprove,orotherheavydebt,creditconditionsmore"second"housingbuyersloans.ThemortgageloanofAmericanrealestatemarketcanbedividedinto3levels:
highqualityloanmarket,"ALT-A"loanmarketandsecondaryloanmarket.Highqualityloanmarketfaceshighcreditlevel,reasonabledebtburdenandlittlerisk,andthemortgageinterestrateisrelativelylow.Secondarymarketreferstothelowcreditscore,lackofproofofincome,heavydebtofcustomers,suchasthelowincomeclassandnewimmigrantsintheUnitedstates.The"ALT-A"loanmarketisagrayareabetweenthetwo,referstothecreditrecordisgood,butlackornofixedincome,deposits,assetsandotherlegitimatedocumentsoftheclient.SubprimemarketsandALT-Alendingmarketsarehigh-riskmarkets,mortgageratesarehigherthanhigh-qualityloans,subprimelendingcrisisistheriskcausedbythispartofthemarket.
Two,thecausesofthesubprimemortgagecrisis:
ThedirectcauseoftheU.S.subprimemortgagemarketturmoilistherisinginterestratesintheUnitedStatesandthecontinuedcoolingofthehousingmarket.Subprimemortgagesareloansprovidedbysomelendinginstitutionstoborrowerswithpoorcreditandlowincome.
Interestincreases,resultinginincreasedrepaymentpressure,manyuserswhohavebadcreditfeelthepressureofrepayment,thepossibilityofdefault,theimpactoftherecoveryofbankloanscausedcrisis.
TheUSsubprimemortgagemarketusuallyadoptsthefixedinterestrateandfloatinginterestratecombinationofrepayment,namely:
propertybuyersinthepurchaseinthefirstfewyearsoffixedrateloans,followedbyfloatingrateloans.
Inthe5yearsbefore2006,theU.S.subprimemortgagemarketgrewrapidlyduetothecontinuedprosperityoftheUShousingmarketandthelowlevelofinterestratesintheUnitedStatesinthepastfewyears.
WiththecoolingofthehousingmarketintheUnitedStates,especiallytheshort-terminterestrate,therepaymentinterestrateofthesubprimemortgageloanshasalsorisensharply,andtherepaymentburdenofthebuyershasbeengreatlyaggravated.Atthesametime,thecontinuedcoolingofthehousingmarketalsomakesitdifficultforhomebuyerstoselltheirhomesorrefinancethroughmortgagehousing.Thissituationdirectlyleadstoalargenumberofsubprimemortgageborrowerscannotrepaytheloanontime,andthenleadtothe"subprimemortgagecrisis"".
Three,theimpactoftheU.S.subprimemortgagecrisis:
1,theimpactofsubprimemortgagecrisisontheUnitedstates:
HowbroadwilltheimpactofthesubprimecrisisintheUnitedStatesbe?
Thisisthecurrentworldeconomicandfinancialcirclespaycloseattentiontotheproblem.
Fromitsdirectinfluence:
Firstofall,theimpactisalargenumberoflow-incomebuyers.Unabletorepaytheirloans,theywillfacethedifficultsituationofhousingbeingrepossessedbybanks.
Secondly,moresecondarymortgageinstitutionswillbeforcedtoapplyforbankruptcyprotectionbecausetheycannotacceptloansandsufferseriouslosses.
Finally,becausemanyUSandEuropeaninvestmentfundshaveboughtalargeamountofsecuritiesderivedfromsubprimemortgages,theywillalsosufferheavylosses.
Thiscrisishasundoubtedlybroughtalotofenlightenmenttothedomesticfinancialindustry.Inthefinancialinnovation,mortgagemarketdevelopmentandfinancialsupervision,etc.-sincetheoutbreakoftheU.S.subprimemortgagecrisis,
NomatterfromtheglobalcapitalmarketfluctuationsorchangesintheUnitedStatesintherealeconomy,theloanisnottobeunderestimatedintheUnitedStatesandworldwide.ForChina,thisstormhassoundedthealarmforustobeprepared.
ThebruntofthesubprimemortgagecrisisintheUnitedStatesisthebankingsector,andtheimportanceoftheriskshiddenbehindthehousingmortgageloanisaproblemthatshouldbepaidcloseattentiontobythecommercialbanksinchina.Intherealestatemarketoverallrisingperiod,housingmortgageloansarehigh-qualityassetsofcommercialbankloans,arelativelyhighrateofreturn,thedefaultrateislow,oncethedefaultcanalsogetcompensationthroughtheauctionofthemortgagedrealestate.Atpresent,therealestatemortgageloanoccupiesalargeproportionintheassetsofChina'scommercialbanks,anditisalsooneofthemainsourcesofloanincome.AccordingtothenewBaselCapitalAccord,commercialbankshavelowerprovisionfortheriskofrealestatemortgageloans.However,oncetherealestatemarketpricesandmortgageratesrisingatthesametime,propertybuyersrepaymentdefaultratewillrisesharply,thetotalamountofprincipalandinterestaftertheauctionmaybelowerthanthevalueofrealestatemortgageprincipalor,thiswillleadtoasignificantincreaseintheratioofbaddebtsofcommercialbanks,theimpactontheprofitabilityofcommercialbanksandcapitaladequacytherateof.However,therealestatemarketinthenearfutureChinapossibilityoffallingpricesisunlikely,butinthelongtermbankmortgageloansriskshouldnotbeignored,mustimplementstrictloanconditionsandloanapprovalsysteminthepresentstage.
Infact,thesourceofthesubprimemortgagecrisisintheUnitedStatesisthattheU.S.realestatefinancialinstitutionsrelaxedtheloanconditionsinthemarketboomperiod,andlaunchedtheformertightloanproducts.ThecommercialbankChinashouldpayfullattentiontothelessonsfromthecrisis,thefirstshouldstrictlyensureShoufupolicyimplementation,increasetheratioofloansShoufu,eliminatezeroShoufuphenomenon;secondshouldtakestrictpreloancreditaudit,avoidfalsemortgagephenomenon.
Beforetheoutbreakofthesubprimemortgagecrisis,theU.S.economyhasbeenrunningontheplatformwithhighgrowthrate,lowinflationrateandlowunemploymentrateformorethan5years,andthetopicof"highfever"intheUShousingmarkethaslastedforseveralyears.ThereisacertainsimilaritybetweentheeconomicpictureofChinaandtheUnitedStatesbeforethehousingmarketcools.
ThebiggestwarningofthesubprimemortgagecrisisintheUnitedStatesisthatweshouldbevigilantagainsttheimpactofmacroeconomicregulationandcontrolpoliciestodealwiththeeconomiccycleonaparticularmarket.TherootcauseoftheU.S.subprimemortgagecrisisistheFed'sinterestratehikeleadingtothedeclineoftherealestatemarket.ThecurrentChinesefacingacceleratinginflationsituation,ifthecentralbankinordertocurbinflationarypressuresandtakeasubstantialmeasurestoimprovetheRMBloaninterestrate,thenitshouldbewaryoftwoaspects:
thefirstisthetighteningoflendingimpactonrealestatedevelopmententerprises,whichmaycausedevelopersfundingfracture;secondistoimprovetheeffectofrepaymentpressureonthemortgageapplicationthepossiblemortgagedefaultratesrise.Theimpactofthesetwoareaswilleventuallyconvergetothecommercialbanksystem,resultinginnon-performingloansofcommercialbanksascollateralratesrise,realestatevaluedecline,andultimatelyaffecttheprofitabilityofcommercialbanksandevensurvivalability.
PeopleneedtounderstandthedifferencesbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesintheeconomiccycleandthehousingmarketcycle.TheUnitedStatesisacountrywithalonghistoryofmarketeconomyundertheglobalsystem.Ithasastrongcyclicalnatureandisnowinthelatestageoftheprosperityofthecurrenteconomiccycle.
Chinahasnotyetexperiencedacompleteeconomiccycle,evenfromthereformandopeninguptonowonly30yearsofhistory,from1992and1993putforwardthemarketeconomytonowisonly15yearsofhistory.Atthisstage,thekeywordofChina'seconomyistheimbalancebetweensupplyanddemand,andthedemandforfixedinvestmentislarge.ThisisdifferentfromtheUSeconomy,whichfocusesonthecycleofnearly10years;inaddition,thecyclesofthehousingmarketinChinaandtheUnitedStatesaredifferent.AftertheimplementationofhousingreforminChina,theendofthehousingmarketformanyyears,thedemandsoared.AlthoughChina'shousingmarketisalsodrivenbyspeculativefactors,
Butlargedemandandlimitedsupplyarethemostimportantreasonsforhigherhousingprices.AndfortheChinesehousingmarket,thegovernmenthasroomforregulation.
ThesubprimemortgagecrisisintheUnitedStatesalsogivesenlightenmenttoChina'sMacro-economicControl.Therearethreemainaspects:
First,itisnecessarytobringassetpricesintothemonitoringobjectofthecentralbankwhenimplementingmonetarypolicy.Becauseonceassetpricesaffect
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