经济学人.docx
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经济学人.docx
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经济学人
TheGreatWar
Europe’scommemorationsmayperhapsenda100-yearhaunting,saysourobituarieseditor,inthefirstofthreearticlesonthecentenaryofthefirstworldwar
Nov18th2013|FromTheWorldIn2014printedition
OnlyonewarinBritishhistoryiscalled“Great”.WhyBritonsgavethatnametotheconflictthatbeganin1914remainssomethingofamystery.ComparedwiththeHundredYears’Warthatspannedthe14thand15thcenturies,itlastedbarelyfouryears.Comparedwiththesecondworldwar,whichsprawledtotheAsia-Pacifictheatre,mostofitwasconfinedtoonesmall,clayeycornerofFranceandBelgium.MorallytheGreatWarwasnochest-thumpingcrusade,justtheinevitableoutcomeofitchingrivalriesbetweenthegreatpowersofthetime,likemostwars.
Thehumandevastationitproducedwasalsoextremelylocalised.Aswastraditionalinwarfare,fightingmenwerestilleachother’stargets,ratherthancivilians.Perhaps8.5mpeopledied,against60min1939-45;butmorethan1mofthesewerefromtheBritishEmpire,nearlydoublethetotalforthesecondwar,andmorethan5%oftheforcewaslostononeday,July1st1916,theopeningofthebattleoftheSomme.Thetitle“Great”sprangperhapsfromthissinglestrategicdisaster,andnothingmore.
Fortherewasnothinggreataboutthiswar,andlittlenew.Inordertoconductit,soldierswereconscriptedintheirthousandsandsenttotheirdeathsbydecoratedgeneralswellawayfromthelines;butsuchhasbeenthelotofsoldierssincearmiesbegan.Inordertokillandmaimmoreefficiently,machinegunsandtankswerebroughtintoplay;butthetanksfailedtowork,andtheMaximgunhadalreadybeendeployedintheBoerWarinSouthAfrica.Photographersexhaustivelyrecordedthesqualoroftrenches,thewastelandofbattlefieldsandfoxholes,thejunk-pilesofdecomposingbodies;butMatthewBradyinthe1860shadpublicisedsuchhorrorsintheaftermathofBullRunandAntietam.Hehadcaptured,too,thedull,haggardlookonthefacesofmenwhohadseentoomuchandcouldnotspeakofitathome.Onthelistofhistory’sbloodyclashesbetweentribesandnations,theGreatWardidnotstandout.
Itwasdifferent,peoplesaid,becauseofthebrutaldisconnectionbetweenthewaythewarwaswelcomedin1914,withthosepressing,joyousqueuesintheAugustsunattherecruitmentoffices,andtheawfuldisillusionasitboggeddownandthecasualtiesmounted.Butenthusiasmforwar,frombucklingonarmourtoripplingstandardstodeterminedsightseeing,coloursthemedievalchronicles,asdoesthefear,wearinessandboredomthatsetinafterwards.Tositaroundformonthsinmud,withrottenfood,wasnothingnew.
Thefirstworldwarwasdifferent,peoplesaid,becauseitinspiredanextraordinarybodyofpoetryandart:
theunsparingstanzasofWilfredOwenandSiegfriedSassoon,thejiltedpatriotismofRupertBrooke,theravagedtreesandburningskiesofPaulNash.YettheunvarnisheddescriptionofdeathinbattlebeganwithHomer,whosestoved-inheadsandspillinggutsareeverybitaschillingasOwen’s“froth-corruptedlungs”;andnothinginthedrawingofconflictwasmoreterriblethanGoya’sespalieredandimpaledpeasantsofthePeninsularWar.EventherelentlessmorbidityoftheGreatWarpoets,theirunderstandableobsessionwithburial,bleakpastoralandloversleftbehind,wasinacontinuumwiththelate-19th-centurysadnessofThomasHardyandA.E.Housman,whoseyoungmenareineluctablydriftingtowardstheirdeaths.Somethingwasintheairforyearsbeforethewar.
Equally,theworldthatseemeddestroyedbythewarwasalreadydisintegratingbeforeit.EdwardThomasmournedthecountrysidelost,andH.G.Wellsnoteddeferencedisappearing.Youngwomenwerewearingties,cuttingtheirhairandgoingaftermen’sjobs.Thepolite,effeteLiberalPartywassteadilygivingwaytothebrawnypoliticsoforganisedlabour.Before1914Kandinskywaspaintinghis“Improvisations”,Joycehadstarted“Ulysses”andStravinskyhadwritten“TheRiteofSpring”.TheEarthhadalreadytiltedtowardschaos,longbeforeitsankdeepintoaswampylabyrinthinFlanders.
Otherthingslasted,whentheGreatWarwassupposedtohavemortallydamagedthem.Notionsofhonour,dutyandcountrypersisteduptothesecondwar,andintermittentlyafterwards;patriotismdidnotseemtobegenerallydevaluedbecauseithadbeenharnessedinadubiouscause.TheBritishEmpiresurvived,withthekingsportingthecrownimperialonpostagestamps.Thebittersweethumourofcartoonsandarmysongslastedrighttotheendofthewar;theconflictwasnotsogreat,oroverwhelming,thatlaughterwasexpunged.Familypostcardsfrom1917show“ourtroops”stillgrinningfromtheirtentsinGallipoli,havingalark,despiteeverything.
Untilrecentlyoldmenstilllivedwhoseeyes,milkywithcataracts,hadseenthebattlefieldsoftheGreatWarandwhosequaveringvoicescouldstilldescribethem.Theirpresencemadethewarunbearablypoignant,butstilldidnotexplainthehaunting.Thesecondworldwar,alsowithitsageingwitnesses,didnotdogpeopleso.
TheGreatWarcametosignifyliveswastedtonopurpose;inthat,ithadnorivals.Andfallingsoearlyinthe20thcentury,itcametohijackit,asiftheprefix“Nineteen”couldneverquitelosethestainofmudandblood.Thiswasthewarafterwhichthereweremeanttobenomore;eachsubsequentwar,therefore,wasabetrayalofthosewhohaddiedinit,asignthattheworldhadnot,afterall,honouredtheirsacrifice.After2014,whentheworldfulsomelytriestomakeituptothem,theuniformedghostsmaybegintobegentlyshakenoff.Onehundredyearsmay,afterall,belongenoughtomourn.
AnnWroe:
obituarieseditor,TheEconomist
FromTheWorldIn2014printedition
The$9trillionsale
Governmentsshouldlaunchanewwaveofprivatisations,thistimecentredonproperty
Jan11th2014|Fromtheprintedition
IMAGINEyouwereheavilyindebt,ownedalargeportfolioofequitiesandunder-usedpropertyandwerehavingtroublecuttingyourspending—muchlikemostWesterngovernments.Wouldn’tyouthinkofoffloadingsomeofyourassets?
Politicianspushprivatisationatdifferenttimesfordifferentreasons.InBritaininthe1980s,MargaretThatcherusedittocurbthepoweroftheunions.EasternEuropeancountriesemployeditlatertodismantlecommandeconomies.Today,withpublicindebtednessatitshighestpeacetimelevelinadvancedeconomies,themainrationaleistoraisecash.
Taxpayersmightthinkthatthebestfamilysilverhasalreadybeensold,butplentyisstillinthecupboard(seearticle).State-ownedenterprisesinOECDcountriesarewortharound$2trillion.Thenthereareminoritystakesincompanies,plus$2trillionorsoinutilitiesandotherassetsheldbylocalgovernments.Buttherealtreasuresare“non-financial”assets—buildings,land,subsoilresources—whichtheIMFbelievesareworththree-quartersofGDPonaverageinricheconomies:
$35trillionacrosstheOECD.
Someoftheseassetscouldnotorshouldnotbesold.WhatpricetheLouvre,theParthenonorYellowstoneNationalPark?
Murkygovernmentaccountingmakesitimpossibletoknowwhatportionofthetotalsuchtreasuresmakeup.Butitisclearthattheoveralllistincludesthousandsofmarketableholdingswithlittleornoheritagevalue.
America’sfederalgovernmentownsnearly1mbuildings(ofwhich45,000werefoundtobeunneededorunder-usedina2011audit)andaboutafifthofthecountry’slandarea,beneathwhichlievastreservesofoil,gasandotherminerals;America’s“fracking”revolutionhassofarbeenalmostentirelyonprivateland.TheGreekstate’slargeststockofunrealisedvalueliesinitsmorethan80,000non-heritagebuildingsandplotsofland.Withonlyoneholidayhomeforevery100inSpain,Greeceshouldbeabletotemptdevelopersandotherinvestorsattherightprice.AnalystsatPwCreckonSwedenhasmarketablestate-ownedpropertyworth$100billion-120billion.IfthatistypicaloftheOECD,itsgovernmentsaresittingonsaleablelandandbuildingsworthupto$9trillion—equivalenttoalmostafifthoftheircombinedgrossdebt.
Getonwithit
Governmentsseemstrangelyreluctanttoexploittheserevenue-raisingopportunities.Thatispartlybecauseprivatisationalwaysfacesopposition.Particularsensitivitiessurroundland,asRonaldReagandiscoveredwhenhisplantosellswathesofAmerica’sWestwereshotdownbyacoalitionofgreensandrancherswhoenjoyedgrazingrights,andastheBritishgovernmentfoundin2010whenenvironmentalistsscuppereditsattempttosellForestryCommissionland.
Inrecentyearsthebigtransactions,apartfromreprivatisationsofrescuedbanks,havemostlytakenplaceinemergingmarkets.ActivityisstartingtopickupinEurope:
theBritishgovernmentsoldRoyalMaillastyear,andissettingagoodexamplebothintransparencyoveritslandandpropertyholdingsandinitsreadinesstosellthem.But,overall,cautionrules.Italy,forexample,carriesapublic-debtburdenof132%ofGDP,yetitsprivatisationplansaretimid—eventhoughthestatehasproportionatelymoretosellthanmostotherrichcountries,withcorporatestakesworthperhaps$225billionandnon-financialassetsworthasmuchas$1.6trillion.Nowthatmarketshaveregainedtheircomposure,itistimetobebolder.
Therearewaysofencouragingsales.Datacollectiononpublicpropertyisshockinglypoor.ItispatchyeveninScandinavia,wheregovernmentspridethemselvesontheiropenness.Governmentsneedtogetabetterideaofwhattheyhold.Effectivelandregistries,givingcertaintytotitle,areessential:
Greece’sregistryremainsamess.Toomanygovernmentsuseaflak
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