a global economy needs a global currency.docx
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a global economy needs a global currency.docx
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aglobaleconomyneedsaglobalcurrency
CommodityPrices,ExchangeRatesandtheInternationalMonetarySystem[2]
Presentedby
DrRobertMundell
UniversityProfessorofEconomics
ColumbiaUniversity
(1999NobelPrizeinEconomicScience)
Indiscussingcommodityprices,oneisdealingwithcommoditypricesincurrencies;soitmaybeexpectedthatmonetaryvariablesareamongtheexplanationsofrealchange.Internationalcommoditypricesaremostlyexpressedindollars,forexample,intheIMFInternationalFinancialStatistics,orintermsofindicesbasedondollarprices.Suchcommoditypricesareobviouslyaffectedbyinflationaswellasrealdevelopments,andalsobythevalueofthedollarexchangerate.Thereisadefinitelinkbetweenmonetarypolicies,exchangeratesandcommodityprices,andthisisthesubjectwhichIwishtodiscusstoday.
PricingingoldanddollarsunderfixedratesPricesarerelationshipsbetweentwoquantities,aquantityoftheobjectforsale,andaquantityofaquidproquo-usuallymoney--offeredforit.Itmaythereforebeexpectedthatchangesinpricescouldreflectnotonlymarket-specifictrendsbutalsomonetarydevelopment.Inaworldofinflation,forexample,commoditypriceswouldberising,andinaworldofdeflationtheywouldbefalling.Bothwouldbeclearmanifestationsofmonetaryratherthanrealdisturbances.Therewouldnotbeaproblemof"commodityprices,"therewouldbeaproblemofmonetarystability.Toanalyzesignificanttrendsin"commodityprices,"thereforeitisimportantfirsttoisolatethemonetarydisturbances(iftheyarepresent)fromtherealdisturbances.
Superimposedongeneralmovementsofworld-wideinflationordeflationareinfluencesofexchangerates.Inourworldofmultiplecurrenciesandflexibleexchangerates,commoditypricesmightriseinonecurrencybutfallinanother.
Thestatementofcommoditypricesindollarscouldrevealeitheraproblemconcerningcommoditypricesoraproblemofthedollar.Thisbringsupthequestion:
inwhatcurrencyorcurrenciesshouldcommoditypricesbequoted?
Inthepost-warworld,thedollarwasbyfarthemostimportantcurrencyintheworldandhadbeensinceWorldWarI.Itwasnaturaltouseitasthebasicunitofaccountandtheconvertibledollar--the"1944golddollar"--wastheanchorforexchangerates.Paritiesforcurrencieswereexpressedinweightsofgold(thedollarwas1/35ofanounceor.888671gramsofgold),butcurrencyunitsandexchangeratesweremorenormallyexpressedintermsofthemorefamiliargolddollar.Aslongasthedollarwasexchangeableintogoldat$35anounce,thedollarhadthelegalroleandlegitimatestatusastheinternationalunitofaccount.Itwasnaturalalsotousedollarquotationsasthebasisfortheindexofcommodityprices.
Allthatchangedwiththeinternationalmonetarysystembrokedownintheearly1970s.Thedollarwasnolongerconvertibleintogold,andforeigncurrencieswerenolongerconvertibleintothedollar.Thedollarlostitsjudicialstatusasbothmonetaryanchorandunitofaccount.Exchangeratesbecameflexible.TheIMFBoardofGovernorsthenofficiallyscrappedtheIMFconstitutionbasedonfixedexchangeratesandofficiallyacceptedtheanewregimeofmarket-based"managed"flexibleexchangerates.Theideawastoletmarketsdetermineexchangerates.Atthesametimeitwasdecidedtoridgoldofits"mystique,"andtoauctionoffatleastpartofIMFgoldstocksaswellasUSTreasuryholdings,andtointroduceinitsplaceasanumerairetheindexofthevalueofabasketofafewmajorcurrenciesthattheSpecialDrawingRights(SDR)hadbecome.
numeraire:
Aneconomictermthatrepresentsaunitofaccount.InFrench,thetermmeans"money","coinage"or"facevalue".Anumeraireisusuallyappliedtoasinglegood,whichbecomesthebasegood.Allsimilargoodsarethenvaluedandpricedagainstthebasegood.Thiscomparisonmakesitpossibletoidentifywhichgoodsareworthmorethanothers.
InvestopediaSays:
AnexampleofanumeraireariseswhenwelookathowcurrencieswerevaluedundertheBrettonWoodssystemduringthemid-twentiethcentury.TheU.S.dollarwaspricedasone-thirty-fifththepriceofanounceofgold.Allothercurrencieswerethenpricedaseitheramultipleorafractionofthedollar.Inthissituation,theU.S.dollaractedasthenumerairebecauseitwasfixedtothepriceofgold.
Whatnumeraireunderflexibleexchangerates?
Unfortunately,therewasnotatthetimemuchunderstandingofhowthenewregimewouldworkorofwhatwouldfulfillthefunctionsformerlyfilledbygoldandthedollar.Unliketheprevioussystem,whichhadbeenbuiltupontheexperienceofhundredsofyearsofmonetaryhistory,therewasnoprecedentforthenewregimeofpapercurrenciesconnectedbyfluctuatingexchangerates.In
additiontherehadbeenlittletheoreticalanalysisoftheproblemslikelytobeencountered.
Oneoftheproblemsrelatedtotheuseofaunitofaccount.Withallcurrenciesonthesamefooting,internationalpaymentswouldbeinchaos.Atthemostrudimentarylevel,howwouldexchangeratesbequoted?
Withncurrenciesintheworldthereare?
n(n-1)exchangerates.Ifn=200thereare9900exchangerates!
Flexibleexchangeratesintheabsenceofanumeraireinwhichtoexpresscurrencypriceswouldinvolveenormousconfusion.
Fortunately,themarketfoundthesolution.Underflexibleexchangeratesthedollarwasmoreratherthanlessimportantthanbefore.Exchangerateswerequotedmainlyindollars,thecurrencymostfrequentlyusedinexchangemarketsandthemainreserveasset(apartfromgold)ofcentralbanks.Ifallcurrencieswerequotedindollarsandperfectarbitragecouldbereliedontherewouldbe"only"199independentlyflexibleexchangerates.
Thesamesolutionwasadoptedinthestatisticalmonthly,IMFIFS.Therewasnolongeranylegalbasisforusingthedollarasthenumeraireforexpressingexchangeratesbutitwastheexpedientsolution.Dollarexchangeratesgave
somecoherencetointernationalmonetarytransactions.Butitwasfarfromasolution.Theusefulnessofacurrencyasnumerairedependspartlyonitsstability.Butwasthedollarstable?
Impactofthedollarcycle
Therewouldhavebeennoproblemifthedollarhadbeenstablevis-?
visothercurrencies.Butinfactthathasnotbeenthecase.Sincethe1970s,thetwomostimportantcurrencies,besidesthedollar,havebeentheGermanDMandthe
Japaneseyen.Thedollarhasgyratedagainstothermajorcurrencies.AgainsttheDM,forexample,thedollarwasDM3.5in1975andfellinhalftoDM1.7fiveyearslater,in1980.ThenthedollardoubledtoDM3.4byearly1985,andthen
fellbelowDM1.35inAugust1992,atthepeakoftheERMcrisisinEurope.
SincethattimethedollarhasrisenfaraboveDM2.0Thisinstabilityofthedollar/DMratemeansthatcommoditypricesindollarsandDMwouldbeformuchoftheperiodmovinginoppositedirections.Inaperiodwhenthecommoditiespriceswererisingindollars,theymighthavebeenfallinginDMs,andviceversa.
Yen-dollarfluctuationshavebeenjustasextreme.Inthehey-dayofBrettonWoods,theyen-dollarratewasfixedat360yentothedollar.Afterthe1970sthisratebecameflexible.By1985thedollarwas250yen.Tenyearlater,by
April1995,thedollarhadfallento78yen.Inotherwordstheyenhadtripledinvalueagainstthedollar.ThiswastheperiodinwhichthebalancesheetsofJapanesecompanieswereundermined,andJapanesebanksendedupwiththe
non-performingloansthatpersistintrillionsofdollarstothisday.ButfromApril1995toJune1998,thedollarsoaredfrom78yento148yen,creatingthesettingfortheAsiancrisis.After1948thedollarfellto105yenbutthenroseagain.Duringthesefluctuations,dollarandyenpricesfrequentlymovedinoppositedirections.
Theinstabilityofdollar-markanddollar-yenexchangeratesdoesnotprovebyitselfthatthedollarisunstable.TheinstabilitycouldequallybeduetoeventsinGermanyorJapanorelsewhere.Yettherehasbeenadistinctcycleof
thedollarmeasuredagainstothermajorcurrencies,andthismeansthatquotationsofcommoditypricesindollarsmaygiverisetogravemisinterpretation.
ThemovementofthedollarwithrespecttotheSDRwasonewayofmeasuringthestabilityofthedollar.Initially,theSDRwasequivalentto1/35ofanounceofgold,i.e.,a1944golddollar,butitsgoldbasiswasstrippedawayinthelater1970sanditeventuallybecameabasketoffivemajorcurrencies
including,besidesthedollar,theyen,themark,thepoundandthefranc.Theweightswerechangedasseemedappropriatewithchangingcircumstances.ThevalueofthisSDRbasketintermsofthedollarwasofcourseunityin1970,
whenthefirstissueofSDRsweremade.Thenitroseto$1.32in1979withthedollar'sdepreciation,fellto$0.98in1984asthedollarsoaredintheearly1980s,thenroseto$1.49in1995withtheweakeningofthedollarandthenfellto$1.24attheendof2001asthedollarstrengthenedinthelate1990s.Thesefluctuations,itshouldbenoted,havebeenextremelylarge,especiallyinproportiontodifferencesinpricelevelsandinflationrates.3/25/2009
Commoditypricecycles
Thequestionneedstobeaskedwhetherthecycleofthedollaragainstmajorcurrenciesisrelatedtothecycleofthedollarcommodityprices.Acasualreadingofthestatisticssuggeststhatthisrelationshipisquiteclose.Thustheindexofnon-oildollarcommoditiestripledinthe1970swhenthedollarwasdepreciatingsharplyrelativetotheSDR;itthenfellbymorethan20percentfrom1980to1986whenthedollarwassoaring;thenitroseby50percentfrom198
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