耶鲁大学金融市场英文文本FinancialMarketsLecture08Transcript.docx
- 文档编号:7218696
- 上传时间:2023-01-22
- 格式:DOCX
- 页数:13
- 大小:31.63KB
耶鲁大学金融市场英文文本FinancialMarketsLecture08Transcript.docx
《耶鲁大学金融市场英文文本FinancialMarketsLecture08Transcript.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《耶鲁大学金融市场英文文本FinancialMarketsLecture08Transcript.docx(13页珍藏版)》请在冰豆网上搜索。
耶鲁大学金融市场英文文本FinancialMarketsLecture08Transcript
FinancialMarkets:
Lecture8Transcript
ProfessorRobertShiller:
NextWednesdaywe'rehavingDavidSwensenlecturetous.HeheadsuptheYaleendowment--ortheinvestmentoftheYaleendowment--andIhaveaNewYorkTimesarticleonthesyllabus,justsortofabiographyofhimyoucouldread.Onreserve,Ihavehisrecentbooks,soIhopethatyouwillgetalotfromhim.Imisspoke,he'snotaYalecollegegraduate,he'saYaleEconomicsPhD;hisundergraduatewasfromUniversityofWisconsinbuthe'sbeenatYaleaverylongtime.HecametoYalefromWallStreetin1985andatthattimetheYaleendowmentwasworthaboutonebilliondollars.Itisnow,underhisleadership,$22.5billionandthatexplainsalotofthequalityofyourlifebecausethatmeanswehaveabout$2milliondollarsperstudent.Theintereston$2milliondollarsis--whatisthat?
Ican'tevendodivision--$100,000ayear.Sothat'swhyYaleismuchmoregenerouswithfinancialaidthanotheruniversitiesandwhywehavebeautiful--ofcourse,thisroomwasbuilt,Ibelieve,inthe30s.Don'tthankDavidSwensenforthisroombutforalotofotherthings.
SoYalehada28%returnonitsportfoliolastyear,whichwasnumberoneofallcollegeendowments.Moreover,it'shada17.8%averagereturnforthelasttenyears,whichisnumberoneamonguniversityendowments.WebeatHarvard,webeatPrinceton,butactuallyPrincetonwas--theheadofthePrincetonendowmentisaprotégéofDavidSwensenandI'msurethesepeoplegettogetherandtalk.Allofthemajoruniversities--HarvardhasbeendoingverywelltooandsohaveDuke,MIT,Amherst,alotof--itseemsthatuniversitiesmanagetoinvestverywell,atleasttheyhaveinrecentdecades.Ithinkthathas--mytheory--thathassomethingtodowiththeintellectualatmosphereatuniversities.Thatis,investingwellrequirescarefulstudyandtheintellectualtraditionwehaveatuniversitieshelpspromotethat.Idon'tknowifDavidSwensencancontinuetodothis.Ithinkwe're--he'shadaspectacularreturn,buthe'sgettingintoachallengingyear.Thisisayearoffinancialcrises,soI'mwarningyouaheadthat--don'texpecta28%returnontheYaleportfolioforthecomingyear.Youcanaskhimaboutthat.Ifhecandoitagaininthissituation,itwillbeamazing.ThatwouldbenextWednesday.
Meanwhile,Iwanttotalktodayaboutregulation.Wow,Ithinkwe'realright--somethingneedsmoreregulationhere--allthesewires.Iwanttomotivateregulationintermsofthelastlecture.Ourpreviouslecturewasaboutbehavioralfinanceanditwasabouthumanfailings.Ithinkthatwetomotivatealotofourregulationoffinancialmarketsbythekindsoferrorsthatpeoplemake.Iwantedtolistafewerrorsthatarewell-knownandthatareexploitedbyunscrupulouspeopleinfinance.Ithinktheymotivatealotofwhat--I'mgoingtowriteanumberofprinciplesofbehavioralfinancedownandjustmentionthembrieflyandthenreturntoregulation.Thesearethingsfromthefieldofpsychology.
Wishfulthinking.Thisreferstothefactthatpeople--thissoundslikesomethingyouprobablyalreadyknowbutithasbeendocumentedbypsychologists.Peopletendtomaketheerrorofbelievingwhattheywanttobelieve.Forexample,peopletendtobelievethattheirteamwillwin;thishasbeendocumentedbypsychologists.Theyhaveabias.Ifyouaskthem,what'stheprobabilitythatYalewillwintheYale-Harvardgame,don'texpectYalestudentsorHarvardstudentstogiveanunbiasedprobability.Youtendto,inyourmind,thinkthatyou'regoingtowin.Thisalsoappliestoelections--wejusthadaprimaryyesterday.Peopletendtoassumethatthecandidatethattheybelieveinwillwin.So,it'swell-knownandthisissomethingthatcanbeexploitedbypeoplesellinginvestments.
Secondthing:
attentionanomalies.Theseare--humanattentiontendstobesporadic.Thatisthatyou--theerrorsthatpeoplenaturallymakeareoftenerrorsofinattention.Youlookatcertainthingsandyouoverly--youpaytoomuchattentiontosomethingsandtoolittletoothers.Thisissomethingthatpsychologistshavebeentalkingaboutforoverahundredyears.Humanattentionispartofhumanintelligence.WehavetoknowwhattopayattentiontoPeoplewhoarenotgoodinfocusingtheirattentionontherightthings--I'mnotjusttalkingaboutattentiondeficitdisorder,I'mtalkingaboutsomemorehigh-levelquestionofhowyouknowwhatyoushouldbepayingattentionto.Underattention,there'sasocialbasisforattentionandthatisthatpeopletendtopayattentiontowhatotherpeoplearepayingattentionto.It'seasytosweepthingsundertherugandgetpeopletoforgetsomething.Thekindsofthingsthatarenaturallytalkedaboutgetexcessiveattentionandthedetailstendtogetforgotten.
Threeisanchoring.Thisreferstoatendencyforpeopleinmakingquantitativejudgmentstosubconsciouslyhavetheirjudgmentsanchoredbysomearbitrarystimulus.Imentionedoverconfidencelastperiod;wethentendtohaveoverconfidenceinouranchoredjudgments.TheclassicexperimentthatdemonstratedanchoringwasKahnemanandTversky--I'mwritingK&T--inawheeloffortuneexperiment,whichtheydidin1974.Whattheydidwastheygotsubjectstoparticipateinapsychologicalexperimentandtheexperimentconsistedofaskingthesubjectsquestionsthathadquantitativeanswers,whichwerealwaysnumbersfromzerotoonehundred.Thentheysaid,I'mgoingtoaskyouaquestionbutbeforeyouanswerthequestionI'mgoingtospinawheeloffortune.Youknowwhatawheelof--it'slikeoneofthosethingsonquizshows.Youspinthisbigwheelanditrotatesforawhileandthenitstopsatonenumber,butobviouslyarandomnumber,becausethiswheeloffortunehadallthenumbersfromzerotoonehundred.
Oneofthequestionstheyaskedwas,whatpercentofAfricannationsbelongtotheUnitedNations?
Thatapparentlyisadifficultquestionthatmostpeopledidn'tknowin1974.Thewaytheydidit--theysaid,we'llaskyouthequestionandthinkaboutit,butwhileyou'rethinkingaboutit--don'tansweryet--we'regoingtospinthiswheeloffortune.Soitcomesupwitharandomnumberthentheyaskedfortheanswer.Well,itturnsoutthatpeopletendedtogiveananswerclosetothenumberthatcameuponthewheeloffortune.Now,theyperfectlywellknewthatthewheeloffortunewasrandom.So,theexperimenters,aftertheygotthenumber,they'dsay,heyyournumberisalmostthesameasthenumberthatjustcameup.Peoplewould--andtheywouldsay,didyoujustgivemethenumberthatcameup?
Andpeoplewoulddenyit.Theywouldsay,ohnoIwasn'tinfluencedbythatnumber.
Thepointofanchoringisthatyouaresubconsciouslyinfluencedbynumbersanditaffectsyourjudgment;youthinkyouknow.Forexample,inlookingatastock,ifyouaskpeopletopredictastockmarketpricetheythinkofsomenumberthattheysawbeforeandtheyareoverlyinfluencedbythatnumber.Forexample,inthelate1990s,ifyouweretoaskaquestion--I'mhypothesizing--howlikelyisitthattheDowwillbeover10,000bytheyear2008?
Peoplemightgivethatalowprobabilitybecauseithadneverbeenover10,000,sotheyjusthadnopsychologicalanchoringonthatnumber.Onceitpasses2000,thenitseemscompletelynatural;that'sanchoring.
Relatedtothisistherepresentativenessheuristic.Itseemstomethatifyoutypethisyou'llgetaspellcheckerror.Andthat'sKahnemanandTverskyagainandit'srelatedtoanchoringinsomesense.Whatitmeansisthat--itreferstoahumantendencytojudgeeventsonthebasisofsimilaritytoothereventsthatareprominentinourmindwithoutregardtotheactualprobabilityoftheevent.I'llgiveyou--inoneofKahnemanandTversky'sexamples,peoplewereaskedtojudgetheoccupationofayoungwoman.Theyhadadescriptionoftheyoungwomanandthewomanwasdescribedassensitive,artistic,etc.Theoccupationchoicesthattheywereallowedwere:
bankteller,sculptress,orsomethingelse.Manypeoplechosesculptressbecausetheythought,wellifshe'sasensitive,artisticwomanmaybeshe'sasculptress.Butthatisaterriblemistakebecauseweshouldknowthatsculptressesareveryrare;veryfewpeoplehavethejobofasculptressorsculptor,soit'samistake.Whatitmeansisthatpeoplewill--whatitmeansis--[Ihavetostuffthiswireinmypocket]--thatwesometimesexaggerateinourimaginationsomerareeventanditcolorsoutthinking.Forexample,thestockmarketcrashof1929isrepeatedlyre-expectedeventhoughitonlyhappenedonce;it'sjustprominentinourthinking.Peoplearelookingatstockpricestoseepatternsthattheyrememberthatareprominentintheirthinkingandthenthosepatternsaregivenanexaggeratedprobability.
Whenwelookedattherandomwalkseries--Ithinktherepresentativenessheuristicplayedaroleinthereaswell.Whenyoulookatarandomwalkyouhavetheintuitiveimpressionthatyoucanextrapolateit--thatitdoesn'tlooklike--youcan'tbelieveit'sreallyrandom,butthereasonyoucanisbecauseyouoverweightheprobabilityofcertainthingsthatcaughtyourattention.Therearesomemore.
Fiveisgamblingbehavior.Anthropologistshavefoundthatgamblingispresentinallhumancultures.Notthateveryonegamblesbuttherewillbe--yougotoanyhumansocietyandaskaboutitandtherewillbesomegameofchancethattheyplayatthe--thatinfluencestheirthinking.Theproblemwith--there'saproblemwithgamblingbehaviorbecauseinacertainfractionofthepopulationwehavepathologicalgambling.Onestudyestimatedthat1.1%ofmenand.5%ofwomen,forsomereasonmorecommonamongmenth
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 耶鲁大学 金融市场 英文 文本 FinancialMarketsLecture08Transcript
链接地址:https://www.bdocx.com/doc/7218696.html