计量经济学stata英文论文终稿.docx

计量经济学stata英文论文终稿.docx

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计量经济学stata英文论文终稿

Graduatestoapplyforthequantitativeanalysisofchangesinnumberofgraduatestudents

一Topicsraised

Inthispaper,thetotalnumberofstudentsfromgraduatestudents（variable）multivariateanalysis（seebelow）specificanalysis,andcollectrelevantdata,modelbuilding,thisquantitativeanalysis.Thenumberofrelationsbetweentheschoolthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentswiththemajorfactors,accordingtothesizeofthevariousfactorsinthecoefficientinthemodelequations,analyzetheimportanceofvariousfactors,exactlywhatfactorsinchangesinthenumberofgraduatestudentsaspectsplayakeyroleinandchangesinthetrendforfuturegraduatestudentstoourproposal.

Themainfactorsaffectchangesinthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsforstudentsareasfollows：

PercapitaGDP-whichisaffectinganimportantfactortothetotalnumberofstudentsinthegraduatestudents（graduateschoolisnotasmallcost,andonlyhaveacertaineconomicbasehavemoreopportunitiesforpost-graduate）

Thetotalpopulation-itwillaffectthetotalnumberofstudentsingraduatestudentsisanimportantfactor（itcanbesaidtoaffectitisbasedonsource）

Thenumberofunemployedpersons-thisistheimpactofadirectfactorofthetotalnumberofstudentsinthegraduatestudents（itispreciselybecauseofthehighunemploymentrate,willmorepeoplechooseKaoyanwillbetheirownemploymentweights）

Numberofcollegesanduniversities-whichistoinfluencepreciselybecauseoftheemergenceofmoreinstitutionsofhigherlearningintheschoolthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsisnotasmallfactor（toallowmorepeopletoparticipateinKaoyan）

二EstablishModel

Y=α+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+u

Amongthem,the

Y-inthetotalnumberofgraduatestudents（variable）

X1-percapitaGDP（explanatoryvariables）

X2-thetotalpopulation（explanatoryvariables）

X3-thenumberofunemployedpersons（explanatoryvariables）

X4-thenumberofcollegesanduniversities（explanatoryvariables）

三、Datacollection

1.dateExplain

Here,usingthesamearea（ie,China）time-seriesdatawerefitted

2.Datacollection

Timeseriesdatafrom1986to2005,thespecificcircumstancesareshowninTable1

Table1：

Y

X1

X2

X3

X4

1986

110371

963

107507

264.4

1054

1987

120191

1112

109300

276.6

1063

1988

112776

1366

111026

296.2

1075

1989

101339

1519

112704

377.9

1075

1990

93018

1644

114333

383.2

1075

1991

88128

1893

115823

352.2

1075

1992

94164

2311

117171

363.9

1053

1993

106771

2998

118517

420.1

1065

1994

127935

4044

119850

476.4

1080

1995

145443

5046

121121

519.6

1054

1996

163322

5846

122389

552.8

1032

1997

176353

6420

123626

576.8

1020

1998

198885

6796

124761

571

1022

1999

233513

7159

125786

575

1071

2000

301239

7858

126743

595

1041

2001

393256

8622

127627

681

1225

2002

500980

9398

128453

770

1396

2003

651260

10542

129227

800

1552

2004

819896

12336

129988

827

1731

2005

978610

14040

130756

839

1792

四、Modelparameterestimation,inspectionandcorrection

1.Modelparameterestimationanditseconomicsignificance,statisticalinferencetest

twoway（scatterYX2）

twoway（scatterYX3）

twoway（scatterYX4）

graphtwowaylfityX1

graphtwowaylfityX2

graphtwowaylfityX3

graphtwowaylfityX4

Y=59.22454816*X1-7.158602346*X2-366.8774279*X3+621.3347694*X4

（6.352288）（3.257541）（157.9402）（46.72256）

t=（9.323341）（-2.197548）（-2.322889）（13.29839）

+270775.151

（369252.8）

（0.733306）

R2=0.996048AdjustedR-squared=0.994994F=945.1415DW=1.596173

Visible,X1,X2,X3,X4tvalues​​aresignificant,indicatingthatthepercapitaGDP,thetotalpopulationofregisteredurbanunemployedpopulation,thenumberofcollegesanduniversitiesarethemainfactorsaffectingthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsinschool.Modelcoefficientofdeterminationfor0.996048amendmentscoefficientofdeterminationof0.994994,wasrelativelylarge,indicatinghighdegreeofmodelfit,whiletheFvalueof945.1415,indicatingthatthemodeloverallissignificant。

Inaddition,thecoefficientofX1,X4,inlinewitheconomicsignificance,butthecoefficientofX2,X3,doesnotmeettheeconomicsignificance,becausefromaneconomicsense,withtheincreaseinthetotalpopulation（X2）,thetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsshouldbeincreased,andduetotheincreaseinthenumberofunemployed,therewillbemoreandmorepeoplechoosegraduateschool,sothatthetotalnumberofunemployedandgraduatestudentsshouldbepositivelycorrelated.X2,X3coefficientsigncontrarytoexpectations,whichmayindicatetheexistenceofseveremulticollinearity.

2.计量经济学检验

TheabovetablecanbeseentoexplainthepositivecorrelationbetweentheheightofthevariableX1andX2,X3,X4,X2,X1,X3,betweenthehighlypositivelycorrelated,showingthatthereisseriousmulticollinearity.Followingamendmentstepwiseregression：

Y=60.21976901*X1-61096.25048

（6.311944）（42959.23）

t=（9.540606）（-1.422191）

AdjustedR-squared=0.825725F=91.02316

Y=27.05878289*X2-2993786.354

（5.622791）（680596.9）

t=（4.812340）（-4.398766）

R-squared=0.562668F=23.15862

Y=1231.659997*X3-371863.6509

（161.9045）（90051.37）

t=（7.607324）（-4.129461）

AdjustedR-squared=0.749576F=57.87138

Y=1053.519847*X4-964699.7964

（65.85948）（79072.71）

t=（15.99648）（-12.20016）

AdjustedR-squared=0.930628F=255.8874

Theanalysisshowsthatthefoursimpleregressionmodel,thetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsforthelinearrelationshipbetweenYcollegex4,goodnessoffit：

Y=1053.519847*X4-964699.7964

（65.85948）（79072.71）

t=（15.99648）（-12.20016）

AdjustedR-squared=0.930628F=255.887

Y=714.1694264*X4+25.58237739*X1-708247.7381

（48.45708）（2.930053）（45496.23）

t=（14.73818）（8.731029）（-15.56718）

AdjustedR-squared=0.986606F=700.7988

Y=886.3583756*X4+8.974091045*X2-1852246.686

（55.52670）（1.837722）（189180.7）

t=（15.96274）（4.883269）（-9.790886）

AdjustedR-squared=0.969430F=302.2581

Y=791.519267*X4+436.7502136*X3-885870.134

（69.64253）（90.10899）（55171.66）

t=（11.36546）（4.846910）（-16.05662）

AdjustedR-squared=0.969163F=299.5666

Bythedataanalysis,comparison,percapitaGDPofthenewentrantstotheX1equationoftheAdjustedR-squared=.986606

Thelargestimprovement,andeachparameter,T-testsignificant,soIchosetoretaintheX1

Thenaddtheothernewvariablestothestepwiseregression:

Y=570.3757921*X4+53.53863254*X1-12.18901747*X2+777507.8381

（46.57535）（6.618152）（2.747500）（336370.1）

t=（12.24630）（8.089665）（-4.436403）（2.311466）

AdjustedR-squared=0.994626F=987.1753

Throughanalysis,wecanfind:

addanewvariableX2,X2coefficient-12.18901747,indicatinganegativecorrelationbetweenX2andY,butintherealeconomicsignificance,X2totalpopulation,andYnumberofgraduatestudentsapositivecorrelationbetweenthemoregeneraleconomicsignificanceofthetotalpopulation,theabsoluteamountofthenumberofgraduatestudentwillbemore.So,X2,shouldberemoved.

Y=700.5113451*X4+53.63805156*X1-597.614061*X3-534866.1749

（33.11564）（6.480707）（131.3478）（49101.16）

t=（12.24630）（8.089665）（-4.436403）（2.311466）

AdjustedR-squared=0.994626F=987.1753

Similarly,addinganewvariableX3,itsparameterestimateisstillnegative,X3,representedbythenumberofunemploymentinurbanareas,theeconomicsignificance,themoreunemploymentinurbanareas,willencouragemoreandmorepeoplegotoPubMedinordertoachieveimprovetheirownquality,employabilityandopportunities.So,inreality,thetwoshouldbepositivelycorrelated,itshouldberemovedX3

3.Whitetest

Finalresultsofaseriesofinspectionandcorrection：

Y=-51055.44688+66.53070046*X1+382.1680346*X4

（9052.520）　　（9.443438）　　　　　　（78.77833）

t=（-5.639916）（7.045178）（4.851182）

AdjustedR-squared=0.921287F=106.3395　　ＤＷ＝1.627477

五、Analysisandconclusionsofthemodel

Itcanbeseenfromthemodel:

（1）model:

significantlycorrelatedonlywithcollegesanduniversitiestotalandpercapitaGDPinthetotalnumberofgraduatestudents.

（2）X1,X4isinlinewitheconomicsignificanceofthetest.Economicsense,thetotalnumberofgraduatestudentswiththeincreaseinpercapitaGDPincreases,theincreasewiththeincreaseinthetotalnumberofuniversities.Anduniversitiesisthetotalimpactofthetotalnumberofthemostimportantfactorinthegraduatestudents.

（3）theamendmentofthemodelcoefficientofdeterminationandFvalues​​areveryhighgoodnessoffitofthemodelisgood