最新英语阅读经济学人文章三篇.docx
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最新英语阅读经济学人文章三篇.docx
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最新英语阅读经济学人文章三篇
IFTHEFederalReserveeasesmonetarypolicyagainatitsmeetingonSeptember13th,asIexpect,itwillbeitsmostmeticulouslydebated,plannedandscrutinisedmoveinrecentmemory.ThecaseforactionhasbeenapparentatleastsincethespringwhenitbecamecleartheeconomywouldunderperformtheFed'srepeatedlyloweredeconomicforecasts.YetBenBernankespentmuchofthepressconferencefollowingtheFed'smeetinginJune,whenitextendedOperationTwist(thepurchaseoflong-termbondsfinancedbysellingshort-termbonds)onthedefensiveoverwhytheFedhadn'tdonemore.InAugust,itagainchosenottopullthetrigger.Butitdidreleaseastatementthathintedthepointwasdrawingnear.TheminutestothatmeetingreleasedthreeweekslatersuggesteditwouldtakeanimmediateandpowerfulimprovementintheeconomytostaytheFed'shand.
WhenMrBernankemadehisannualappearanceattheKansasCityFed'seconomicsymposiuminJacksonHole,Wyoming,today,theworldwaswonderingwhetherhewouldsendadefinitivesignthatactionwascoming.Hedidnot,merelyrepeatingthekeysentencefromtheAuguststatement,thattheFed"willprovideadditionalpolicyaccommodationasneededtopromoteastrongereconomicrecovery."Thisshouldnothavebeensurprising;Fedchairmendon'tliketofront-runtheFederalOpenMarketCommittee.
MrBernankehadadifferentgoalthansignalingtoWallStreet.PressureontheFedhasbecomeintenseinthelastyear,fromhawksandconservatives(notnecessarily,butincreasingly,thesame)whothinktheFedhasdoneallitcandoandgoingfurtherrisksinflation,monetisationofthedebt,andalossofcredibilityforthecentralbank;andfromdovesandliberalswhoaccuseMrBernankeofhavingshirkedhisresponsibilityandhisownprioradvicetotheBankofJapanbynotmoreaggressivelyusingthetoolsandalternativeframeworksavailabletoboostemployment.Thatthisdebatehasunfoldedagainstthebackdropofatightanddivisivepresidentialelectionhasonlyraisedthestakes,becauseitmeantnomatterwhattheFeddoes,onepartywillaccuseitofhavinghelpedtheotherwin.
SinceMrBernankecouldnotescapecriticismregardlessofwhattheFeddid,tacticallyhewasbestservedbywaitinguntilthecaseforactionwasunambiguous,unsurprisingand,mostimportant,wellarticulated.Thedatahavemadethecaseunambiguous:
employmentandgrowthareweakandinflationbytheFed'spreferredmeasurehasedgeddown.BySeptember13th,itwillcertainlybeunsurprising.MrBernanke'stasktodaywastoarticulatethecase.
MrBernankehasalwayssaidthetestwaswhetherthebenefitsofmore"quantitativeeasing"(QE)—thepurchaseofassetsbyprintingmoney—exceededthecosts.Thisiswhathedidtoday.Onthebenefits,hesaidstudiesthatshowtheFed'stwopreviousroundsofQE(largescaleassetpurchases,orLSAPsinFedjargon)plusOperationTwisthadloweredTreasuryyieldsby80to120basispoints.Theyhavealsoledto"significantdeclinesintheyieldsonbothcorporatebonds...[and]substantialreductionsinMBSyieldsandretailmortgagerates.LSAPsalsoappeartohaveboostedstockprices,presumablybothbyloweringdiscountratesandbyimprovingtheeconomicoutlook."Ontheeconomicimpact,hereported:
“
Ifwearewillingtotakeasaworkingassumptionthattheeffectsofeasierfinancialconditionsontheeconomyaresimilartothoseobservedhistorically,theneconometricmodelscanbeusedtoestimatetheeffectsofLSAPsontheeconomy.ModelsimulationsconductedattheFederalReservegenerallyfindthatthesecuritiespurchaseprogramshaveprovidedsignificanthelpfortheeconomy.Forexample,astudyusingtheBoard'sFRB/USmodeloftheeconomyfoundthat,asof2012,thefirsttworoundsofLSAPsmayhaveraisedthelevelofoutputbyalmost3percentandincreasedprivatepayrollemploymentbymorethan2millionjobs,relativetowhatotherwisewouldhaveoccurred.TheBankofEnglandhasusedLSAPsinamannersimilartothatoftheFederalReserve,soitisofinterestthatresearchershavefoundthefinancialandmacroeconomiceffectsoftheBritishprogramstobequalitativelysimilartothoseintheUnitedStates.”
MrBernankealsoarguedthattheFed'sforwardrateguidance,thatisitscommitmentnottoraiseratesthroughtheendof2014,havehadapowerfulimpactonexpectationsofFedtightening.Inconclusion,hesaidthat"nontraditionalpolicytoolshavebeenandcancontinuetobeeffectiveinprovidingfinancialaccommodation"(emphasismine).
Hethencataloguedthepotentialcostsoffurthereasing:
impairedmarketfunctioningastheFed'sshareoftotalbondsincirculationrose;thepotentialforassetbubblesifinterestratesarekeptlowforalongtime;thethreatofinflationiftheFedhastroubleexitingfromitspurchases;andpotentiallossesiftheb
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