四级模拟试题Model Test1.docx
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四级模拟试题Model Test1.docx
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四级模拟试题ModelTest1
ModelTest1
PartIWriting(30minutes)
Directions:
Forthispartyouareallowed30minutestowriteashortessayentitledShouldSmokingBeBannedinPublicPlaces?
Youshouldwriteatleast120wordsfollowingtheoutlinegivenbelow.
1.近年来越来越多的公共场所禁烟
2.这项举措在受到拥护的同时也引发了争议
3.你的看法
ShouldSmokingBeBannedinPublicPlaces?
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PartIIReadingComprehensive(SkimmingandScanning)(15minutes)
Low-carbonFuture:
WeCanAffordtoGoGreen
Tacklingclimatechangewillcostconsumerstheearth.Thosewhocampaignforagreenrevolutionareouttodestroyourwesternlifestyles.Sucharethecriesofopponentsofemissionscuts,andtheirmessagehaspoliticalimpact:
anumberofsurveyshavefoundthattheenthusiasmofvotersforpoliciestoreduceclimatechangefallsoffasthepricetagincreases.
However,anewmodeling(模型化)exercisesuggeststhatthesefearsarelargelyunfounded.ItprojectsthatradicalcutstotheUK’semissionswillcausebarelynoticeableincreasesinthepriceoffood,drinkandmostothergoodsby2050.Electricityandpetrolcostswillrisesignificantly,butwiththerightpoliciesinplace,saythemodellers,thisneednotleadtobigchangeinourlifestyle.
“Theseresultsshowthattheglobalprojecttofightclimatechangeisfeasible,”saysAlexBowen,aclimatepolicyexpertattheLondonSchoolofEconomics.“It’snotsuchabigaskaspeoplearemakingout.”
Althoughitisimpossibletopreciselypredictpricesfourdecreasefromnow,theexerciseisoneofthemostdetailedexaminationsyetoftheimpactofclimatechangepoliciesonUKconsumers.Itprovidesausefulroughguidetooureconomicfuture.
ThoughitsresultsspeakdirectlytotheUKconsumers,previousresearchhascometosimilarconclusionsfortheUS.InJune,onestudyfoundthatiftheUSweretocutemissionsby50percentby2050,pricesofmostconsumergoodswouldincreasebylessthan5percent.ThefindingsarealsoconsistentwithanalysesbythePewCenteronGlobalClimatechangeinWashingtonDC.“Evencuttingemissionsby80percentoverfourdecadeshasaverysmalleffectonconsumersinmostareas,”saysManikRoyofthePewCenter.“Thechallengeisnowtoconvinceconsumersandpolicy-Makersthatthisisthecase.”
TheIntergovernmentalpanelonClimateChangerecommendsthatwealthynationscuttheiremissionstobetween80and95percentbelow1990levelsby2050inordertoavoidtheworsteffectsofclimatechange.TheUKgovernmentaimstoreduceitscontributionby80percentandleadersoftheotherG8nationshavediscussedfollowingsuit.Tomeetthisgoal,industrieswillhavetoslashfossilfuelconsumption,andlow-carbonpowersourceswillhavetomassivelyexpand.Companieswillhavetopayincreasinglyhigherpricesfortherighttoemitgreenhousegases.
Howwillthisaffecttheaveragecitizen'swallet?
Tomeasuretheimpactofthe80percenttargetontheUKpopulation,NewScientistapproachedCambridgeEconometrics,afirmknownforitsmodelingoftheEuropeaneconomy.Thefirmusedhistoriceconomicdatatopredicttheimpactofemissionsreductionsonpricesinover40categoriesofgoodsandservices.Itcomparedtheimpactofthe80percentcutwithabaselinescenarioinwhichthegovernmenttakesnoactionotherthanthelimitedemissionsrestrictionsalreadyinplaceasaresultoftheKyotoprotocol(京都协议书).
Mostofthepriceincreasesareaconsequenceofrisingenergycosts,inpartbecausecoalandgasarereplacedbymoreexpensivelow-carbonsources.Thepriceofelectricityisprojectedtobe15percenthigherin2050comparedwiththebaseline.Intoday'sprices,thatwouldaddaround£5ontotypicalmonthlyhouseholdelectricitybills.Itwillalsoresultinhigherpriceselsewhere,aseveryindustrialsectoruseselectricity.
Butelectricityandotherformsofenergymakeuponlyasmallpartofthepriceofmostgoods.Otherfactors-rawmaterials,labourandtaxes-arefarmoreimportant.Theenergythatgoesintoproducingfood,alcoholicdrinksandtobacco,forexample,makesupjust2percentoftheconsumerprice.Formotorvehiclepurchasesandhotelstays,thefigureis1percent.Onlyforenergy-intensiveindustriesdoesthecontributionclimbabove3percent.
Asaresult,mostproductscostjustafewpercentmoreby2050.Atcurrentprices,goinglow-carbonisforecasttoaddaround5pencetothepriceofasliceofbreadorapintofbeer.Thepriceofhouseholdappliancessuchaswashingmachinesrisesbyafewpounds.
Thereisonemajorexceptiontothepattern.Airlinesdonotcurrentlyhavealow-carbonalternativetojetfuel.Unlessoneisfound,theywillbearthefullburdenofcarbonpricing,andaveragefareswillrisebyatleast140percent-raisingthecostofatypicalLondontoNewYorkreturntripfromaround£350to£840.
Achievingtheoverallpictureoflowpricesdoesrequiregovernmentaction.Themodelforecaststhatby2050naturalgasandpetrolwillcost160percentand32percentmorerespectively.Toavoidlargepricerisesinhomeheatingandroadtransportwhilestillhittingthe80percenttarget,theCambridgeresearchershadtobuildtwomajorpoliciesintotheiranalysis.Theyassumedthatfuturegovernmentswillprovidegrantstohelpswitchalldomesticheatingandcookingtoelectricity,andinvestinthebasicfacilitiesneededforelectriccarstoalmostcompletelyreplacepetroleum-fuelledvehicles.
BothpolicieshavebeendiscussedinrecentUKgovernmentstrategydocuments,thoughthedetailofhowtheywouldbeimplementedstillneedsfurtherdiscussion.Firmpoliciesmustfollowifambitiousemissionscutsaregoingtobemade,saysChrisThoungofCambridgeEconometrics.
Soistacklingclimatechangegoingtobeeasierthanexpected,intermsofconsumercosts?
WhiletheCambridgeEconometricsmodeliswidelyrespectedandregularlyusedbytheUKgovernment'sclimatechangeadvisers,anyattempttoforecastfourdecadesaheadcanbedivertedbyunforeseenevents.Thatleadssomeeconomiststoquestionthemodel'sresults.
Forexample,companiescouldmovetocountrieswithlessstrictcarbonregulations,pointsoutRichardToloftheEconomicandSocialResearchInstituteinDublin,Ireland.IncomesintheUKwouldfall,makinggoodsrelativelymoreexpensive.Tolalsoquestionswhetheritisreasonabletousehistoricalpricesasabasisforprojectingbeyond2020.
Despitethis,theCambridgeEconometricsresults,togetherwithotherrecentstudies,doprovideausefulguideforgovernments,saysMichaelGrubboftheUniversityofCambridge.Theysuggestthattheoverallchallengeisconquerable,evenifmanyofthedetailswillonlybecomeclearinyearstocome.
1.Whydoestheenthusiasmofthepolicy-makerstolessonclimatedecrease?
A)Economicrecessioniswidelyspread
B)Westernlifestylesaredestroyed
C)Thecostofagreenrevolutionrises
D)Theenvironmentisimproved
2.Accordingtothemodellers,emissioncutswon’tchangethelifestyle,providedthat_____
A)thepriceoffoodanddrinkremainstable
B)appropriatepoliciesarecarriesout
C)electricityandpetrolcostsdon’trise
D)thepublichasastrongfaithinit
3.ThestudentsreleasedinUKandUSshowthat_________.
A)Cuttingemissionswon’taffectthepriceofdailygoodsmuch
B)Thetwocountries’situationsofthegreenrevolutionaredifferent
C)Theconsumersstronglysupportcuttingemission
D)Themostchallengingproblemishowtostabilizetheprice
4.CambridgeEconometricspredictedtheimpactofemissionsreductionsonpricesfrom———
A)Computeranalysis
B)Pasteconomicdata
C)Currentcategoriesofgoods
D)Abaselinesituation
5.What’sthemajorcauseofthehigherpriceaccordingtothepassage?
A)Highertaxesoncarbonemission
B)Changesofthelifestyle
C)Therisinglivingstandards
D)Risingenergycosts
6.Whyaretheairfarespredictedtorisedramatically?
A)Moreandmorepeoplewilltaketheplane
B)Nocleanenergycanreplacethejetfuel
C)Manyairlinescollapseduetocarbonpricing
D)Thecostofanairlineincreasesforfindingnewenergy
7.ThetwomajorpoliciesbuiltbytheCambridgeresearchersinclude______
A)imposinghighertaxesforpetroleum-fuelledvehicles
B)Stabilizationofthepriceofdailygoodsandservice
C)Theelectrificationofresidentialheatingandcookingsystem
D)Theprohibitionofdrivingpetroleum-fuelledvehicles
8.Someeconomistsdoubtthemodel’sresultsbecausethepredictionmaybedivertedby____
9.RichardTolpointsoutthatgoodsinUKmaybecomemoreexpensiveascompaniescouldfindotherlocationswith___________________.
10.TheCambridgeEconometricsresultsprovideausefulguideforpolicy-makers,withasuggestionthatthegovernmentcan________thechallenge.
PartIIIListeningComprehension(35minutes)
SectionA
11.A)thephysicsclassisverydifficult
B)thephysicsclassisnotgivenhisterm
C)thephysicsclassiseasierthanpeoplethink
D)Thephysicsclassshouldbecancelledifpossible
12.A)hewassatisfiedwithhismilitaryservice
B)itwasthefirsttimehehadbeenabroad
C)hehadneverbeenonawarship
D)hehadbeenonthewarshipbefore
13.A)puticeonherfoot
B)seeadoctoratonce
C)giveherfootagoodrest
D)takethedoctor’sadvice
14.A)theybrokedownandcouldgonofurther
B)theyhaven’tachievedmuch
C)theyhaveproducedageneralagreement
D)theyhaven’tstartedyet
15.A)thewomanisoutofshape
B)thewomandoesn’tneedanewracket
C)thewomanalsoneedsnewtennisshoes
D)Thewomanspenttoomuchonhertennisshoes
16.A)heshouldmakeanapologytoMary
B)hemaytalktoMarydirectly
C)heshou
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