Naturesignificance of institutional investors 081013.docx
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Naturesignificance of institutional investors 081013.docx
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Naturesignificanceofinstitutionalinvestors081013
NATUREANDSIGNIFICANCEOF
INSTITUTIONALINVESTORS
Inmostdevelopedeconomiesthedominantformofinvestmentisindirect.Indirectinvestmentinvolvesindividualsputtingmoneyinafund,whichthenusesthatmoneytobuysharesorothersecurities.在大多数发达经济体投资的主要形式是间接的。
间接投资涉及个人把钱放在基金,然后用这笔钱购买股份或其他证券。
Typicallymostofthesharesissuedwithinaneconomyareheldindirectlythroughvarioustypesoffund.Thesefundsareknownasinstitutional,orcollective,investments.通常一个经济体系内发行的股份,间接持有各类型基金。
这些基金被称为机构或集体投资。
Pensionfunds,insurancefunds,andmutualfunds(suchasunittrusts,OEICsandinvestmenttrusts)aremajorinstitutionalinvestors.养老基金,保险基金,共同基金(如单位信托基金,OEICS及投资信托)是主要的机构投资者。
Institutionalinvestorshavecometodominatesecuritiesmarkets.Forexampleithasbeenestimatedthataround75%ofUKsharesareheldthroughinstitutionalinvestments(UKandoverseasinstitutions),asopposedtobeinghelddirectlybyindividuals.In1963UKindividualinvestorsheld54%ofUKcompanyshares.机构投资者来主宰证券市场。
例如据估计,英国大约75%的股份持有,机构投资(英国和海外机构),而不是由个人直接被关押。
在1963年英国个人投资者持有的英国公司股份的54%。
Thetrendtowardsincreasedimportanceofinstitutionalinvestorsseemslikelytocontinue,particularlywithregardtopensionfunds.Amajorfactorbehindthisexpectationisthephenomenonoftenreferredtoasthedemographictimebomb.
机构投资者的重要性日益增加的趋势,似乎可能继续,特别是养老基金方面。
这种预期背后的主要因素是的现象经常提到的人口定时炸弹。
Theratioofpensionerstoworkersisrising.Ithasbeenestimatedthatby2020aratioofjustthreeworkersforeverypensionerislikelytobetypicalindevelopedcountries(compared,forexample,tomorethanfiveworkersperpensionerin1990).工人领取养老金的比例呈上升趋势。
据估计,到2020年,每一个养老金领取者的比率只有三个工人很可能是典型的发达国家(例如,比较,到1990年领取养老金超过五个工人)。
Itisprojectedthattheratiowillcontinuetofallaslifeexpectancyincreases.Thequestionarisesastowhethermembersoftheworkforcewillbeable(andwilling)topaythetaxesrequiredtosupportsuchalargenumberofpensioners.据预测,随着寿命的增加的比例将继续下降。
问题在于,劳动力的成员是否能够并愿意支付所需的税收来支持如此大量养老金领取。
Itislikelythatthecurrent(andfuture)workforcewillneedtoaccumulatesubstantialpensionfundinvestmentsinordertoavoidpovertyinretirementortheneedtocontinueworkingbeyondpresentretirementages.
它很可能是目前(及未来)劳动力将需要积累大量的养老基金的投资,以避免贫困的退休或需要超越当前的退休年龄继续工作。
LiquidityTheoryofAssetPrices
PepperandOliver(2006)proposedtheLiquidityTheoryofAssetPrices.amajordriverofstockmarketsistheamountofliquidity(MONEY)availableforinvestment.Inotherwords,ifpeoplehavemoremoneytoinvest,theywillinvestmoreandtherebypushupshareprices.辣椒和奥利弗(2006年)提出的流动性资产价格理论。
股市的主要驱动力是流动性(货币)可用于投资。
换句话说,如果人们有更多的钱去投资,他们会投入更多,从而推升股价。
PepperandOliverillustratethepointbyconsideringatake-overfinancedbybankborrowing.Moneyiscreatedwhenloansaremade.Sotheactoffinancingatake-overwithborrowedmoneyincreasesthemoneysupply(liquidity).辣椒和奥利弗说明这一点通过考虑接管由银行贷款提供资金。
钱是贷款发放时创建的。
所以融资接管用借来的钱增加了货币供给(流动性)的行为。
Thepurchaseofthesharesofthetargetcompanypushesthesharepriceup.Thesellersofthesharesthenhavemoneyavailableforinvestment,andmayusethemoneyforthepurchaseofothersharestherebypushingsharepricesup.购买目标公司的股份,推动股价上升。
卖家的股份,然后有资金可用于投资,并可以使用的钱购买其他股份,从而推动股价向上。
Thepeoplewhosellthoseshareswillreceivemoney,someofwhichwillbeusedforsharepurchases.Thisprocesscancontinuethroughanumberofrounds,andateachroundsharepricesarepushedup.出售该等股份的人才能收到钱,其中一些将被用于购买股票。
这个过程可以继续进行的轮数,以及每一轮股价推高。
Thecumulativeincreaseinexpenditureonsharescanbeestimatedbymeansofamultiplierequation:
累计增加支出股份可估计通过事半功倍的方程:
I=Ex[1/(1–k)]
whereIisthecumulativeincreaseinspendingonshares,
Eistheinitialexpenditureonthesharesofthetargetofthetake-overbid,
andkistheproportionofreceiptsfromsalesofsharesthatisinvestedinothershares.我所在的是累积升幅股份支出,E为初始支出的股份收购出价的目标,和K的比例是投资其他股份的股份销售收据。
Ahighrateofreinvestment(ahighlevelofk)producesalargemultipliereffectandalargecumulativeexpenditureonshares(alargeI).
再投资率很高产生较大的乘数效应和一个大型的累计支出股份
Intheeventofasubstantialnumberoftake-oversinatimeperiod,thisliquidityimpactonthestockmarketcouldbeconsiderable.Therewouldbestrongupwardpressureonshareprices.
在事件,在一段时间内相当数量的接管,这种流动性影响股市的可能是相当大的。
会有强劲的上升对股价的压力。
Institutionalinvestorsarepotentiallysignificantforthisprocesssincetheproportionofsharesheldbyinstitutionshassignificanceforthevalueofk.Whereasindividualinvestorsmayusepartofthereceiptsfromsharesalesforpurposesotherthanpurchaseofothershares,institutionalinvestorsarelikelytouseahighproportion(inmanycases100%)onthepurchaseofothershares.机构投资者的潜在意义这个过程中,由于机构持有的股份比例,具有重要意义的K值,而个人投资者则可以用自购销售的部分收入,比购买其他股份的其他用途,机构投资者可能其他股份购买使用的比例很高(在许多情况下,100%)。
Soifinstitutionalinvestorsholdahighproportionofthesharestradedonstockmarkets,thevalueofkwillbehighandsowillthevalueofI.Astheimportanceofinstitutionalinvestorsincreases,sotoowouldtheeffectofliquiditychangesonthelevelofstockindices.因此,如果机构投资者对股市买卖的股份持有比例高,K值的将是高,所以将价值一,增加机构投资者的重要性,所以也上一级的流动性变动的影响股票指数。
Itshouldbeborneinmindthatdecreasesinliquiditycanoccurwithconsequentdownwardmultipliereffects.Thepresenceofinstitutionalinvestorscouldservetomagnifybothupwardanddownwardmovementsinstockindices.我们必须紧记,降低流动性会发生造成向下的乘数效应。
股票指数,机构投资者的存在可以起到扩大向上和向下运动。
Example
Thetake-overofacompanyisfinancedbyborrowing£10billionfrombanks.Thesellersofsharesinthecompanythatistaken-overspend95%oftheirreceiptsonothershares.Thesellersofthesesharesinturnspend95%ofthereceiptsonothershares.Eachtimesharesaresold95%oftheproceedsarespentonothershares.Whatisthecumulativeincreaseinspendingonshares?
接管一家公司是靠借贷10亿英镑从银行融资。
卖家的股份,该公司正在采取OVER花对其他股份的95%,他们的收据。
其他股份,这些股份的卖方又花了95%的收据。
每次股份出售所得款项的95%都花在了其他股份。
什么是累计增加支出股份?
Answer
Thecumulativeincreaseinspendingonshares,I,isgivenbythemultiplierequation:
I=Ex[1/(1-k)]
whereE=£10billionandk=0.95(95%).
I=10x[1/(1-0.95)]=10x[1/0.05]=10x20=200
Thecumulativeincreaseinspendingonsharesis£200billion.
Theliquiditymultiplierdescribedaboveexplainsaprocessthatdrivesthestockmarketeitherupordown.Itindicatesthecumulativeincreaseinspendingonassetsbutdoesnotindicatethesizeoftheresultingriseorfallintheaveragepriceoftheassets.上述流动乘数解释的描述解释了过程,推动股市向上或向下。
它表明资产的支出,但累计涨幅并不表明资产的平均价格产生上升或下降的大小。
Congdon(2006)hassuggestedthattheextentofthemarketmovementcanbeestimatedbyconsideringthedemandforliquidityonthepartofinstitutionalinvestors.CONGDON(2006)认为,市场运动的程度,可以考虑对部分机构投资者的流动性需求估计。
THedemonstratedthatinstitutionalinvestors(lifeassuranceandpensions)haveafairlystabledemandforliquidityinthesenseoftheratioofliquidassetstootherassets.表明机构投资者(人寿保险及退休金)有一个相当稳定的流动性需求对于在这个意义上的流动性资产的比例对他资产.
Iftheinstitutionalinvestorsexperienceachangeinliquiditythatmovestheliquidityratioawayfromthedesiredlevel,theywillattempttorestorethedesiredratio.
如果机构投资者遇到流动性的变化,远离流动资金比率所需的水平,他们将试图恢复所需的比率。
Forexamplethecentralbank(BankofEngland)maybuygovernmentbondsfromtheinstitutions.Themoneyusedtopayforthebondsaddstotheliquidityoftheinstitutions.
Theinstitutionsattempttorestoretheirliquidityratiostothedesiredvaluesbyspendingthesurplusliquidityonassetssuchasshares,bondsandcommercialproperty.
Thiswilldriveupassetprices.Share,bondandpropertypriceswillrise.Solongastheholdingofliquidityexceedsthedesiredamountinvestmentspendingwillcontinue.
ifoneinstitution’sspendingisanotherinstitution’sreceipt,theattemptbyaninstitutiontoreduceitsholdingofliquiditydoesnotreducetheaggregateholdingofliquiditybyinstitutions.
eachinstitutionattemptstoreduceitsliquidityholdingtothedesiredlevel,buttheinstitutionsinaggregatefailtodoso.
Somemoneywillbelosttotheinstitutions,forexampletoindividualshareholderswhoselltoinstitutions,butmuchofthesurpluswillremainwiththeinstitutions.
Iftheinstitutionsholdahighproportionoftotalinvestmentassets,mostoftheadditionalmoneymayremainwiththeinstitutions.Thedesiredratioofliquiditytootherassetsisrestoredbyariseinshare,bondandpropertyprices.
Supposethatinstitutionalinvestors,inaggregate,holdnon-liquidassetsof£1,000billion.Alsosupposethat,onaverage,theinstitutionsdesiretoholdliquidassetsequalto4%ofnon-liquidassets.
Togethertheyrequire£40billionofliquidassets.IftheBankofEnglandbuys£30billionofgiltsfromthem,theywouldhavealiquidassetsratioofabout7%.
Inaggregatetheywouldnotridthemselvesofthesurplus£30billion,sincetheywouldtendtopassthemoneybetweenthemselvesassharesandbonds(andotherassets)areboughtfromeachother.
Someofthemoney,say£10Billion,wouldbelosttotheinstitutions.Thiswouldreducetheaggregateholdingofliquidityto6%oftheoriginalvalueofnon-liquidassets.Theinstitutionswouldstillhave£60billionofliquidassets.
Thedesiredratioofliquidassetstonon-liquidassetsisrestoredbyariseinassetprices.Share,bondandpropertypriceswouldriseuntilthedesiredratioisrestored.Solongastheactualratioexceedsthedesiredratiospendingonsharesandbonds(andproperty)wouldcontinue,aswouldtheresultingriseinprices.
Priceswouldriseuntilthetotalvalueofnon-liquidassetsreached£1,500billion.Theliquidityratioof4%wouldthenhavebeenrestored(£60billionofliquidassetsagain
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