原油价格与石油产品价格外文翻译文献中英文最新.docx
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原油价格与石油产品价格外文翻译文献中英文最新.docx
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原油价格与石油产品价格外文翻译文献中英文最新
原油价格与石油产品价格外文文献翻译中英文
(节选重点翻译)
英文
Areviewoftheevidenceontherelationbetweencrudeoilpricesandpetroleumproductprices
LouisEderington,ChitruFernando
Abstract
Wereviewalargebodyoftheempiricalliteraturefocusingontherelationbetween petroleumproduct pricesandoilpricesanddiscusstheevidenceonthedirectionof causality betweencrudeoilpricesandpetroleumproductprices.Inaddition,wesurveytheliteratureonthemuch-debatedquestionofwhetherpetroleumproductpricesresponddifferentlytoincreasesversusdecreasesinoilprices,whichBacon(1991)labeledthe“rocketsandfeathers”phenomenon.
Keywords:
Oilprices,Petroleumproductprices,Energyeconomics,Commodities
1. Introduction
Thissurveyisthefirstofatwo-partseriesthatreviewstheextantempiricalevidenceregardingthebehaviorof petroleumproductfuturesprices.Hereinwereviewtheliteraturefocusingontherelationbetweenpetroleumproductpricesandoilprices.Inthecompanionreview(Ederingtonet al.,2018a),weturntothegeneraldistributionalcharacteristicsofpetroleumproductprices,theinfluenceoffundamentalfactorssuchasrefineryoutagesandweatheronproductprices,thewaythatpricediscoveryoccursforpetroleumproductprices,thepredictiveaccuracyofpetroleumproductfuturespricesforfuturespotprices,andtheimpactofspeculationonpetroleumproductprices.
Crudeoilisthe“mainingredient”inrefinedpetroleumproducts.Twoprimaryhypothesesregardingthecausalrelationbetweenoilpricesandpetroleumproductpriceshavebeenpresentedintheliterature.Thefirstarguesthattheprimarycausalrelationrunsfromoilpricestoproductprices(seethesurveyof FreyandManera,2007; U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,2014)andrestsonthehypothesisthatthemarginalpriceofabarrelofapetroleumproductshould,inprinciple,bedeterminedbythehighestmarginalcostofoilused.Analternativeisthat causality runsintheoppositedirection(Verleger,1982, 2011; Baumeisteret al.,2018).Thedirectionofcausalityhasimportantimplicationsfortheregulationandorganizationofthesemarketsandthefacilitationoftrade.Numerousauthorsinvestigatingthelinksbetweenoilpricechangesandproductpricechangeshavetakenthedirectionofcausationasagivenandassumedthatthedominantchannelisfromoilpricestoproductprices.However,recentevidencesuggeststhatcausalitymayrunfromproductpricestooilprices.Whetherthereisacausallinkrunningfromproductpricestooilpriceshasreceivedlimitedalthoughincreasingattention(Ascheet al.,2003; Kaufmannet al.,2009; Kilian,2010; BilginandEllwanger,2017; Baumeisteret al.,2018).Theevidencesupportingthefirsthypothesisrestsgenerallyontheanalysisofdatameasuredatamonthlyorweeklyfrequency,whereassupportforthealternativehypothesisrestsgenerallyonthebehaviorofdatameasuredataquarterlyorlongerfrequency.
Oneimportantpartofthedialogueabouttheshort-termconnectionbetweenoilpricesandpetroleumproductpricesisthespeedandmagnitudeofproductprices'responsetochangesinoilprices.Thisresponseisoftenreferredtoasthe“rocketsandfeathers”phenomenon,aphrasecoinedby Bacon(1991) todescribethefastriseresponseingasolinepricestoincreasesinoilpricesandtheslowfallasoilpricesdecline.Thisquestionformsthebasisofalong,ongoingdebateaboutwhethergasolineprices(andotherproductprices)respondmorestronglyandquicklytooilpriceincreasesthantooilpricedecreases.Pricesofrefinedpetroleumproductssuchasgasolineandheatingoilhavelongbeenafocalpointofinteresttoindividualconsumers,industrialproducersandconsumers,aswellaspublicpolicymakersandacademics.Whengasolinepricesarerising,thereismuchpopularconsternation.Allegationsofcollusiononthepartofretailsellersaswellas predatorypricing arecommon.Forinstance,hearingsconductedbytheU.S.SenateCommitteeonEnergyandNaturalResourcesemphasizedthemission“Toexploretheeffectsofongoingchangesindomesticoilproduction,refininganddistributiononU.S.gasolineandfuelprices.” Nodoubtasaconsequenceoftheregulatoryandantitrustattentionfocusedonthisindustry,alargeempiricalliteraturestudyinggasolinepriceshasdeveloped.
Hereinwereviewtheevidenceregardingcausalityandthewaysthatpetroleumproductpricesrespondtoincreasesordecreasesinoilprices.Aspartofourreview,wealsoexaminetheempiricalevidenceonwhichmarket-determinedoilpriceservesastheprincipalbenchmarkforproductprices.
2. Petroleumproductprices
2.1. Crudeoilpricesandproductprices
Heatingoil,gasoline,andfueloilareallrefinedfromcrudeoil.Thepricesof petroleumproducts areinextricablylinkedtothepriceofcrud
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