从管理视角再谈股利政策外文翻译.docx
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从管理视角再谈股利政策外文翻译.docx
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从管理视角再谈股利政策外文翻译
原文:
RevisitingManagerialPerspectivesonDividendPolicy
Muchempiricalresearchexistsinvestigatingwhetherdividendpolicyaffectsfirmvalue.GrahamandDodd(1951)andGordon(1959)arguethatanincreaseinthedividendpayoutincreasesstockprice(value)andlowersthecostofequity,butempiricalsupportforthispositionisweak.OtherssuchasLitzenbergerandRamaswamy(1979,1982),Blume(1980),andAngandPeterson(1985)taketheoppositeposition.Theirstudiesreportthatstockswithhighdividendpayoutratioshavehigherrequiredreturnsandthereforelowerprices.StillotherssuchasBlackandScholes(1974),MillerandScholes(1978,1982),Miller(1986),andBemstein(1996)maintainthatdividendpolicymakesnodifferencebecauseithasnoeffectoneitherstockpricesorthecostofequity.Researchershavetestedthesealternativetheoriesofdividendpolicybuthavenotobtainedconclusiveresults.Thus,theissueofwhichexplanationofdividendpolicyismostcorrectremainsunresolved.
Weaddressthreemajorresearchquestionsinthisstudy.First,whatviewsdoNasdaqmanagersfromdividend-payingfirmshaveonthedividend-settingprocess?
WeexpectthatoursurveyrespondentsstronglyagreewithstatementsinvolvingLintner's(1956)modelondividendpolicy.Lintner'sfamousinvestigationofdividendpolicystressesthatfirmsonlyincreasedividendswhenmanagementbelievesthatearningshavepermanentlyincreased.Aspreviouslydiscussed,muchsupportexistsforLintner'sdescriptionofhowfirmssettheirdividendpayments.WeexpecttheNasdaqfirmsstudied,allofwhichhaveestablishedpatternsofpayingdividends,toholdsimilarviews.
Second,docorporatemanagersofdividend-payingNasdaqfirmsbelieveafirm'sdividendpayoutcanaffectfirmvalue?
Basedonasetofhighlyrestrictiveassumptions,MillerandModigliani(1961)contendthatdividendpolicyhasnoeffectoneitherthepriceofafirm'sstockoritscostofcapital.Weexpectthatmanagersgenerallybelievethatdividendpolicymattersbecausetheyoperateinaworldinwhichmarketimperfectionscanmakedividendpolicyrelevant.Therefore,weexpecttoobservegeneralagreementbymanagersofNasdaqfirmsparticipatinginourstudywithstatementsrelatingtotherelationshipbetweendividendpolicyandvalue.StudiesbyLintner(1956),Baker,Farrelly,andEdelman(1985),andothersreportthatmanagersbelievedividendstabilityisdesirable.Ifthispositioniscorrect,investorsshouldpreferstocksthatpaymorepredictabledividendstothosethatpaythesameamountofdividendsinthelongrunbutinamoreerraticmanner.
Wedonotexpectthemajorityofrespondentstoagreewithstatementsinvolvingtheresidualdividendmodel,whichimpliesthatdividendsarepaidoutof"leftover"earnings.Althoughusingtheresidualpolicymayhelpafirmsetitslong-runtargetpayoutratio,webelievethatmanagerstypicallydonotusethisapproachtoguidethepayoutinanyoneyearbecausethiswouldleadtoerraticdividends.
WesurveymanagersofNASDAQfirmsthatconsistentlypaycashdividendstodeterminetheirviewsaboutdividendpolicy,therelationshipbetweendividendpolicyandvalue,andfourcommonexplanationsforpayingdividends.Theevidenceshowsthatmanagersstresstheimportanceofmaintainingdividendcontinuityandwidelyagreethatchangesindividendsaffectfirmvalue.Managersgivethestrongestsupporttoasignalingexplanationforpayingdividends,weaktolittlesupportforthetax-preferenceandagencycostexplanations,andnosupporttothebird-in-the-handexplanation.Thestudyprovidesnewevidenceabouthowmanagersviewdividendlifecyclesandresidualdividendpolicy.
Wereporttheresultsinthreesub-sections.First,wediscussNASDAQmanagers'responsestostatementsaboutdividendpolicyinvolvingthedividendsettingprocessandthehistoricalpatternofdividends.Next,weexaminerespondentviewsondividendrelevance.Thethirdsub-sectionexaminestheresponsesaboutthefourcommonexplanationsforpayingdividends.
Ourstudyexamineshowmanagersviewdividendpolicybutusesadifferentdatasettoextendandrefinethescopeofprevioussurveyresearch.Specifically,wesurveycorporatemanagersofNASDAQfirmsthatconsistentlypaycashdividendstodeterminetheirviewsaboutdividendpolicy,therelationshipbetweendividendpolicyandvalue,andfourcommonexplanationsforpayingdividends--signaling,tax-preference,agencycosts,andbird-in-the-handarguments.Ourmotivationforconductingthisstudyistodeterminewhethertheevidencesimplyreaffirmswhatwealreadyknoworprovidesnewinsightsaboutdividendpolicy.ThestudyistimelygivenevidencebyFameandFrench(2001)ofthedecliningincidenceofdividendpayers,whichnotonlyreflectsthechangingcharacteristicsofdividendpayersbutalsotheirlowerpropensitytopaydividends.
Tables1through3reportourempiricalfindings.Forpresentationpurposes,wecollapsetheresponsesintothreecategories:
disagree(-2and-1),noopinion(0),andagree(+1and+2).Ineachpanelofthetables,welisttheresultsinorderoftheirmeanresponses,fromlargesttosmallest.Althoughnotshown,wealsouset-teststodetermineifanyofthemeanresponsesdifferssignificantlyfrom0(noopinion).Basedonthet-tests,werejectthenullhypothesisthatthemeanvalueofeachstatementdoesnotdifferfromzero,exceptstatements$24and$27.Thistestwasconductedatthe0.05level.
PanelAofTable1reportshowtherespondentsviewfivestatements($4through$8)relatingtoLintner'sdescriptionofthedividend-settingprocess.Ofthe27statementscontainedinthesurvey,NASDAQmanagersshowthehighestlevelofagreementwith$6(mean=1.53)and$7(mean=1.47).Morethan90percentagreethatafirmshouldavoidincreasingitsregulardividendifitexpectstoreversethedividenddecisioninayearorso($6)andafirmshouldstrivetomaintainanuninterruptedrecordofdividendpayments($7).ThehighlevelofagreementwiththesetwostatementssuggestsconcernoftherespondingNASDAQmanagersaboutthecontinuityofpayingdividends.
PanelAofTable2reportstheresultsofhowNASDAQmanagersviewfivestatementsabouttherelationshipbetweendividendpolicyandfirmvalue($9,S10,S11,S13,andS15).Morethan90percentagreewiththestatementthatanoptimaldividendpolicystrikesabalancebetweencurrentdividendsandfuturegrowththatmaximizesstockprice(S11).Morethan80percentoftherespondentsagreethatafirmshouldformulateitsdividendpolicytoproducemaximumvalueforitsshareholders(S10)andthatafirm'sinvestment,financing,anddividenddecisionsareinterrelated(S13).About65percentofrespondingNASDAQmanagersagreesthatachangeinafirm'scashdividendsaffectsfirmvalue($9).Onlyabouthalfagreethatafirm'sdividendpolicygenerallyaffectsthefirm'scostofcapital(S15).Theseresponsesareconsistentwithoursecondpredictionthatrespondentsgenerallybelievedividendpolicymatters.
Asexpected,lessthanhalftherespondentsagreewithS12andS14.Thefactthattherespondentsdonotexpressstrongagreementwitheitherstatementinvolvingresidualdividendtheoryisnotsurprisinggiventheirresponsestoseveralearlierstatements($6,$7,and$8)thatfavordividendcontinuityandstability.Also,respondentsfromdividend-payingfirmsareprobablymuchlesssensitivetoquestionsinvolvingthelinkbetweendividendpolicydecisionsandfinancingdecisions(S13)andhowdividendpolicylinksupwiththefirm'sinvestmentdecisions(S12andS14)thantheircounterpartsatnodividend-payingfirms.
Wesurveymanagersofdividend-payingNASDAQfirmstolearntheirbeliefsaboutthedividendsettingprocess,whetherdividendpolicyaffectsfirmvalue,andfourcommonexplanationsforpayingdividends.SomeevidencetendstoconfirmwhatwealreadyknowfromearliersurveysofNYSEfirmsandotherempiricalresearch.Thisevidenceisstillimportantbecauseitreinforcessomeearlierfindingswhilenotsupportingothersusinganewdatasetandtimeperiod.
First,ourresultsshowthatrespondentsfromdividend-payingNASDAQfirmsstronglyagreewithstatementssupportingLintner's(1956)findings.Inparticular,respondentsstresstheimportanceofdividendcontinuity.AnimplicationofthisfindingisthatmanagersgenerallyperceivethatfirmstodaysetdividendpaymentsinamannerconsistentwiththatdescribedbyLintnermorethanfourdecadesago.
Second,NASDAQmanagerswidelysupportstatementsconsistentwiththeconceptthatafirm'sdividendpolicymatters.Theyagreethatanoptimaldividendpolicystrikesabalancebetweencurrentdividendsandfuturegrowththatmaximizesstockprice,andthatafirmshouldformulateitsdividendpolicytoproducemaximumvalueforshareholders.Animplicationofthisfindingisthatmarketimperfectionsleadtotherelevanceofdividendpolicy.
Third,managersgivethestrongestsupporttoasignalingexplanationforpayingdividends.Again,thisfindingisnotsurprisingbecausemuchempiricalevidenceisconsistentwithhypothesesgeneratedbydividendsignalingmodels.Animplicationofthisfindingisthatmanagerswhoareconcernedaboutdividendcontinuityshouldbecarefulofthesignalsconveyedtothemarketbychangesindividends.However,managersofferlittleornosupportforthetaxpreferenceandagencycostexplanations.Thelatterfindingissurprisingespeciallyconsideringthatotherempiricalevidenceisconsistentwiththemonitoringroleofdividends.Notunexpectedly,mostrespondentsdisagreewithstatementssupportingthebird-in-the-handexplanationforpayingdividends.Furthertestsshowth
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