中国外汇储备14 trillion dollar question.docx
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中国外汇储备14 trillion dollar question.docx
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中国外汇储备14trilliondollarquestion
TheAtlanticHome
January/February2008
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The$1.4TrillionQuestion
TheChinesearesubsidizingtheAmericanwayoflife.Areweplayingthemforsuckers—oraretheyplayingus?
ByJamesFallows
StephenSchwarzmanmaythinkhehasimageproblemsinAmerica.Heistheco-founderandCEOoftheBlackstoneGroup,andhethrewhimselfa$3millionpartyforhis60thbirthdaylastspring,shortlybeforemakingmanyhundredsofmillionsofdollarsinhiscompany’sIPOandfindingcleverwaystoavoidpayingtaxes.That’snothingcomparedwiththewayhelooksinChina.Here,heandhiscompanyaresurprisinglywellknown,thankstoblogs,newspapers,andtalk-showreferences.InAmerica,Schwarzman’sperceivedoffenseisgreed—asinwereadilyforgiveandforget.InChina,thesuspicionisthathehassomehowhoodwinkedordinaryChinesepeopleoutoftheirhard-earnedcash.
Fromthearchives:
"CashingOut"(September2007)
Isprivateequityjustanotherbubble,orasignofsicknessinAmerica'spublicstockmarkets?
ByCliveCrook
Interviews:
"PrivateEquityDeconstructed"(August14,2007)
AtlanticsenioreditorCliveCrookweighsinontheprivate-equitybusiness—whyit'sbooming,whereit'sheaded,andwhatitmeansforAmericancapitalism.
LastJune,China’sBlackstoneinvestmentwashailedintheAmericanpressasasignofcannysophistication.ItseemedjustthekindofthingtheU.S.governmenthadinmindwhenithammeredChinatouseitsnewwealthasa“responsiblestakeholder”amongnations.Byputting$3billionofChina’snationalsavingsintotheinitialpublicofferingofAmerica’sbest-knownprivate-equityfirm,theChinesegovernmentallieditselfwithabig-timeWesternfirmwithoutraisingpoliticalfearsbytryingtobuyoperatingcontrol(itboughtonly8percentofBlackstone’sshares,andnonvotingsharesatthat).ThecontrastwiththeJapaneseandSaudis,whointheirnouveau-richephaserousedirritationandenvywiththeirshowypurchasesofWesternbrandnamesandlandmarkproperties,wasplain.
Sixmonthslater,itdidn’tlooksocanny,atleastnotfinancially.China’sBlackstoneholdingslost,onpaper,about$1billion,duringatimewhenthecompositeindexoftheShanghaiStockExchangewassoaring.AttwodifferentuniversitieswhereI’vespokenrecently,studentshavepointedoutthatSchwarzmanwasamajorRepublicandonor.AstudentatFudanUniversityknewadetailIdidn’t:
thatin2007PresidentBushattendedaRepublicanNationalCommitteefund-raiseratSchwarzman’sapartmentinManhattan(thinkwhathewouldhavemadeofthefactthatSchwarzman,whowasoneyearbehindBushatYale,hadbeenafellowmemberofSkullandBones).Wasn’tthewholeschemeawaytotakemoneyfromtheChinesepeopleandgiveittothepresident’scrony?
TheBlackstonecaseistitillatinginitspersonaldetail,butitisalsoanunusuallyclearandpersonalizedsymptomofadeeper,lesspublicized,andpotentiallymuchmoredestructivetensioninU.S.–Chinarelations.It’snotjustStephenSchwarzman’scompanythatthelaobaixing,theordinaryChinesemasses,havebeensubsidizing.It’severyoneintheUnitedStates.
Throughthequarter-centuryinwhichChinahasbeenopeningtoworldtrade,ChineseleadershavedeliberatelyhelddownlivingstandardsfortheirownpeopleandproppedthemupintheUnitedStates.Thisistherealmeaningofthevasttradesurplus—$1.4trillionandcounting,goingupbyabout$1billionperday—thattheChinesegovernmenthasmostlyparkedinU.S.Treasurynotes.Ineffect,everypersoninthe(rich)UnitedStateshasoverthepast10yearsorsoborrowedabout$4,000fromsomeoneinthe(poor)People’sRepublicofChina.Likesomanyimbalancesineconomics,thisonecan’tgoonindefinitely,andthereforewon’t.Butthewayitends—suddenlyversusgradually,forpredictablereasonsversusduringapanic—willmakeanenormousdifferencetotheU.S.andChineseeconomiesoverthenextfewyears,tosaynothingofbystandersinEuropeandelsewhere.
AnyeconomistwillsaythatAmericanshavebeenlivingbetterthantheyshould—whichisbydefinitionthecasewhenanation’stotalconsumptionisgreaterthanitstotalproduction,asAmerica’snowis.Economistswillalsopointoutthat,despitetheglitterofChina’sbigcitiesandtheriseofitsbillionaireclass,China’speoplehavebeenlivingfarworsethantheycould.That’swhatitmeanswhenanationconsumesonlyhalfofwhatitproduces,asChinadoes.
Neithergovernmentlikestodrawattentiontothisarrangement,becauseithasbeensoconvenientonbothsides.ForChina,ithashelpedtheregimeguidedevelopmentinthewayitwouldlike—andkeepthedomesticeconomy’sgrowthratefromcrossingthethinlinethatseparates“unbelievablyfast”from“uncontrollablyinflationary.”ForAmerica,ithasmeantcheaperiPods,lowerinterestrates,reducedmortgagepayments,alightertaxburden.Butbecauseofpoliticaltensionsinbothcountries,andbecauseofthehugeandgrowingsizeoftheimbalance,thearrangementnowshowssignsofcrackingapart.
Inanarticletwoandahalfyearsago(“CountdowntoaMeltdown,”July/August2005),Idescribedanimaginedfutureinwhichareal-estatecrashandshakinessintheU.S.creditmarketsledtopanicbyChineseandotherforeigninvestors,withunpleasanteffectsforyearstocome.Therealworldhasrecentlyhadinklingsofsimilarconcerns.Inthepastsixmonths,relativenobodiesinChina’sestablishmentwereabletocausebriefpanicsintheforeign-exchangemarketsmerelybyhintingthatChinamightstopsupplyingsomuchmoneytotheUnitedStates.InAugust,aneconomicresearchernamedHeFan,whoworksattheChineseAcademyofSocialSciencesanddidpartofhisdoctoralresearchatHarvard,suggestedinanop-edpieceinChinaDailythatiftheU.S.dollarkeptcollapsinginvalue,Chinamightmovesomeofitsholdingsintostrongercurrencies.Thiswaspresentednotasathreatbutasastatementoftheobvious,likesayingthatduringamarketpanic,lotsofpeoplesell.ThecolumnquicklyprovokedalarmiststoriesinEuropeandAmericasuggestingthatChinawasconsideringthe“nuclearoption”—unloadingitsdollars.
Afewmonthslater,aveteranCommunistPartypoliticiannamedChengSiweisuggestedessentiallythesamethingHeFanhad.Cheng,inhismid-70s,wastrainedasachemicalengineerandhasnoofficialroleinsettingChineseeconomicpolicy.Butwithinhoursofhisspeech,aflurryoftradingforcedthedollartowhatwasthenitslowestlevelagainsttheeuroandothercurrencies.TheheadlineintheSouthChinaMorningPostthenextdaywas:
“Officials’WordsShrivelU.S.Dollar.”Expressingamazementatthemarkets’response,CarlWeinberg,chiefeconomistattheHighFrequencyEconomicsadvisorygroup,said,“ThiswouldbekindoflikeCongressmanCharlieRangelgivingaspeechtellingtheFedtohikeorcutinterestrates.”(Cheng,likeRangel,isknownforcolorfulcomments—butheislesspowerful,sinceRangelafterallchairstheHouseWaysandMeansCommittee.)Inthefollowingweeks,phraseslike“runonthedollar”and“collapseofconfidence”showedupmoreandmorefrequentlyinfinancialnewsletters.Thenervousnessonlyincreasedwhensomeonewhodoeshaveinfluence,ChinesePremierWenJiabao,saidlastNovember,“Weareworriedabouthowtopreservethevalue”ofChina’sdollarholdings.
Whenthedollarisstrong,thefollowing(good)thingshappen:
thepriceoffood,fuel,imports,manufacturedgoods,andjustabouteverythingelse(vacationsinEurope!
)goesdown.Thevalueofthestockmarket,realestate,andjustaboutallotherAmericanassetsgoesup.Interestratesgodown—formortgageloans,credit-carddebt,andcommercialborrowing.Taxratescanbelower,sinceforeignlendersholddownthecostoffinancingthenationaldebt.TheonlyproblemisthatAmerican-madegoodsbecomemoreexpensiveforforeigners,sothecountry’sexportsarehurt.
Whenthedollarisweak,thefollowing(bad)thingshappen:
thepriceoffood,fuel,imports,andsoon(nomorevacationsinEurope)goesup.Thevalueofthestockmarket,realestate,andjustaboutallotherAmericanassetsgoesdown.Interestratesarehigher.Taxratescanbehigher,tocovertheincreasedcostoffinancingthenationaldebt.TheonlybenefitisthatAmerican-madegoodsbecomecheaperforforeigners,whichhelpscreatenewjobsandcanraisethevalueofexport-orientedAmericanfirms(winemakersinCalifornia,producersofmedicaldevicesinNewEngland).
Thedollar’svaluehasbeenhighformanyyears—unnaturallyhigh,inlargepartbecauseoftheimplicitbargainwiththeChinese.LivingstandardsinChina,whilerisingrapidly,havebythesamelogicbeenunnaturallylow.Tounderstandwhythissituationprobablycan’tgoon,andwhatmightreplaceit—viaadollarcrashorsomeotherevent—let’sconsiderhowthiscuriousbalanceofpoweraroseandhowitworks.
Whyapoorcountryhassomuchmoney
By1996,Chinaamasseditsfirst$100billioninforeignassets,mainlyheldinU.S.dollars.(Chinaconsiderstheseholdingsastatesecret,soallnumberscomefromanalysesbyoutsideexperts.)By2001,thatsumdoubledtoabout$200billion,accordingtoEdwinTrumanofthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomicsinWashington.Sincethen,ithasincreasedmorethansixfold,bywelloveratrilliondollars,andChina’sforeignreservesarenowthelargestintheworld.(InsecondplaceisJapan,whoseeconomyis,atofficialexchangerates,nearlytwiceaslargeasChina’sbutwhichhasonlytwo-thirdstheforeignassets;thenext-largestafterthataretheUnitedArabEmiratesandRussia.)China’sU.S.dollarassetsprobablyaccountforabout70percentof
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