普通股投资的新原则外文翻译2篇.docx
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普通股投资的新原则外文翻译2篇.docx
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普通股投资的新原则外文翻译2篇
外文翻译之一:
Newercanonsofcommon-stockinvestment
Authors:
Benjamin·Graham
Nationality:
USA
Source:
Securityanalysis
Releasedtimeandpagenumbers:
1934366——375页
Thetrendofearnings,althoughmostdangerousasasolebasisforselection,mayproveausefulindicationofinvestmentmerit.Ifthisapproachisasoundone,theremaybeformulatedanacceptablecanonofcommon-stockinvestment,containingthefollowingelements:
1.Investmentisconceivedasagroupoperation,inwhichdiversificationofriskisdependedupontoyieldafavorableaverageresult.
2.Theindividualissuesareselectedbymeansofqualitativeandquantitativetestscorrespondingtothoseemployedinthechoiceoffixed-valueinvestments.
3.Agreatereffortismade,thaninthecaseofbondselection,todeterminethefutureoutlookoftheissuesconsidered.
SecularExpansionasBasis.Maytheownershipofacarefullyselected,diversifiedgroupofcommonstocks,purchasedatreasonableprices,becharacterizedasasoundinvestmentpolicy?
AnaffirmativeanswermaybedevelopedfromanyoneofthreedifferentkindsofassumptionsrelatingtothefutureofAmericanbusinessandthepolicyofselectionthatisfollowed.Thefirstwillpositthatcertainbasicandlong-establishedelementsinthiscountry’seconomicexperiencemaystillbecountedupon.Theseare
(1)thatournationalwealthandearningpowerwillincrease,
(2)thatsuchincreasewillreflectitselfintheincreasedresourcesandprofitsofourimportantcorporations,and(3)thatsuchincreaseswillinthemaintakeplacethroughthenormalprocessofinvestmentofnewcapitalandreinvestmentofundistributedearnings.Thethirdpartofthisassumptionsignifiesthatabroadcausalconnectionexistsbetweenaccumulatingsurplusandfutureearningpower,sothatcommon-stockselectionisnotamatterpurelyofchanceorguessworkbutshouldbegovernedbyananalysisofpastrecordsinrelationtocurrentmarketprices.
Ifthesefundamentalconditionsstillobtain,thencommonstockswithsuitableexhibitsshouldonthewholepresentthesamefavorableopportunitiesinthefutureastheyhaveforgenerationspast.Thecardinaldefectofinstabilitymaynotberegarded,therefore,asmenacingthelong-rangedevelopmentofcommonstocksasawhole.Itdoesindeedexertapowerfultemporaryeffectuponallbusinessthroughthevariationsoftheeconomiccycle,andithaspermanentlyadverseeffectsuponindividualenterprisesandsingleindustries.Butofthesetwodangers,thelattermaybeoffsetinpartbycarefulselectionandchieflybywidediversification;theformermaybeguardedagainstbyunvaryinginsistenceuponthereasonablenessofthepricepaidforeachpurchase.
InourIntroductionwepointoutthattheexperienceofthelastfifteenyearsweighsagainstthisproposition.Withoutseekingtoprophesythefuture,mayitnotsufficetodeclarethattheinvestorcannotsafelyrelyuponageneralgrowthofearningstoprovidebothsafetyandprofitoverthelongpull?
Inthisrespectitwouldseemthatwearebacktotheinvestor’sattitudein1913—withthedifferencethathiscautionthenseemedneedlesslyblindtothepowerfulevidencesofseculargrowthinherentinoureconomy.Ourcautiontodaywouldappear,atleast,tobebasedonbitterexperienceandontherecognitionofsomenewerandlesspromisingfactorsinthewholebusinesspicture.
SelectionBasedonMargin-of-safetyPrinciple.Theapproachtocommon-stockinvestmentisbasedonthemargin-of-safetyprinciple.Iftheanalystisconvincedthatastockisworthmorethanhepaysforit,andifheisreasonablyoptimisticastothecompany’sfuture,hewouldregardtheissueasasuitablecomponentofagroupinvestmentincommonstocks.Thisattackontheproblemlendsitselftotwopossibletechniques.Oneistobuyattimeswhenthegeneralmarketislow,measuredbyquantitativestandardsofvalue.Presumablythepurchaseswouldthenbeconfinedtorepresentativeandfairlyactiveissues.Theothertechniquewouldbeemployedtodiscoverundervaluedindividualcommonstocks,whichpresumablyareavailableevenwhenthegeneralmarketisnotparticularlylow.Ineithercasethe“marginofsafety”residesinthediscountatwhichthestockissellingbelowitsminimumintrinsicvalue,asmeasuredbytheanalyst.Butwithrespecttothehazardsandthepsychologicalfactorsinvolved,thetwoapproachesdifferconsiderably.
FactorsComplicatingEffortstoExploitGeneralMarketSwings.Aglanceatthechartonpage6,showingthefluctuationsofcommon-stockpricessince1900,wouldsuggestthatpricesarerecurrentlytoohighandtoolowandthatconsequentlythereshouldberepeatedopportunitiestobuystocksatlessthantheirvalueandtosellthemoutlateratfairvalueorhigher.Acrudemethodofdoingthis—butoneapparentlyencouragedbythechartitself—wouldconsistsimplyofdrawingastraightlinethroughtheapproximatemidpointsofpastmarketswingsandthenplanningtobuysomewherebelowthislineandtosellsomewhereaboveit.
Perhapssucha“system”wouldbeaspracticalasany,buttheanalystislikelytoinsistonamorescientificapproach.Onepossiblerefinementwouldoperateasfollows:
1.Selectadiversifiedlistofleadingindustrialcommonstocks.
2.Determineabaseor“normal”valueforthegroupbycapitalizingtheiraverageearningsatsomesuitablefigure,relatedtothegoinglongterminterestrate.
3.Determineabuyingpointatsomepercentagebelowthisnormalvalueandasellingpointaboveit.(Orbuyingandsellingmaybedone“onascaledown”and“onascaleup.”)
Amethodofthiskindhasplausiblelogictorecommendit,anditisfavoredalsobyanage-oldtraditionthatsuccessinthestockmarketisgainedbybuyingatdepressedlevelsandsellingoutwhenthepublicisoptimistic.Butthereaderwillsuspectatoncethatthereisacatchtoitsomewhere.Whatareitsdrawbacks?
Asweseeit,thedifficultiesattendingthisideaarethreefold:
First,althoughthegeneralpatternofthemarket’sbehaviormaybeproperlyanticipated,thespecificbuyingandsellingpointsmayturnouttohavebeenbadlychosen,andtheoperatormaymisshisopportunityatoneextremeortheother.Second,thereisalwaysachancethatthecharacterofthemarket’sbehaviormaychangesignificantly,sothataschemeofoperationthatwouldhaveworkedwellinthepastwillceasetobepracticable.Third,themethoditselfrequiresaconsiderableamountofhumanfortitude.Itgenerallyinvolvesbuyingandsellingwhentheprevalentpsychologyfavorstheoppositecourse,watchingone’ssharesgolowerafterpurchaseandhigheraftersaleandoftenstayingoutofthemarketforlongperiods(e.g.,1927–1930)whenmostpeopleareactivelyinterestedinstocks.Butdespitethesedisadvantages,whichwedonotminimize,itisourviewthatthismethodhasagooddealtocommendittothosetemperamentallyqualifiedtofollowit.
TheUndervalued-individual-issueApproach.Theotherapplicationoftheprincipleofinvestinginundervaluedcommonstocksisdirectedatindividualissues,whichuponanalysisappeartobeworthsubstantiallymorethantheyaresellingfor.Itisrarethatacommonstockwillappearsatisfactoryfromeveryqualitativeangleandatthesametimewillbefoundtobesellingatalowpricebysuchquantitativestandardsasearnings,dividends,andassets.Issuesofthistypewouldundoubtedlybeeligibleforagrouppurchasethatwouldfulfilloursupplementarycriterionof“investment”giveninChap.4.(“Aninvestmentoperationisonethatcanbejustifiedonbothqualitativeandquantitativegrounds.”)Ofmorepracticalimportanceisthequestionwhetherornotinvestmentcanbesuccessfullycarriedonincommonstocksthatappearcheapfromthequantitativeangleandthat—uponstudy—seemtohaveaverageprospectsforthefuture.Securitiesofthistypecanbefoundinreasonabeabundance,asaresultofthestockmarket’sobsessionwithcompaniesconsideredtohaveunusuallygoodprospectsofgrowth.Becauseofthisemphasisonthegrowthfactor,quiteanumberofenterprisesthatarelongestablished,wellfinanced,importantintheirindustriesandpresumablydestinedtostayinbusinessandmakeprofitsindefinitelyinthefuture,butthathavenospeculativeorgrowthappeal,tendtobediscriminatedagainstbythestockmarket—especiallyinyearsofsubnormalprofits—andtosellforconsiderablylessthanthebusinesswouldbeworthtoaprivateowner.
Weinclinestronglytothebeliefthatthislastcriterion—apricefarlessthanvaluetoaprivateowner—willconstituteasoundtouchstoneforthediscoveryoftrueinvestmentopportunitiesincommonstocks.Thisviewrunscountertotheconvictionsandpracticeofmostpeopleseekingtoinvestinequities,includingpracticallyalltheinvestmenttrusts.Theiremphasisismainlyonlong-termgrowth,prospectsforthenextyear,ortheindicatedtrendofthestockmarketitself.Undoubtedlyanyofthese准投资机会的值于下来地位的惑oundinreasonablthreeviewpointsmaybefollowedsuccessfullybythoseespeciallywellequippedbyexperienceandnativeabilitytoexploitthem.Butwearenotsosurethatanyoftheseapproachescanbedevelopedintoasystemortechniquethatcanbeconfidentlyfollowedbyeveryoneofsoundintelligencewhohasstudieditwithcare.Hencewemustraiseoursolitaryvoiceagainsttheuseoftheterminvestmenttocharacterizethesemethodsofoperatingincommonstocks,howeverprofitabletheymaybetothetrulyskillful.Tradinginthemarket,forecastingnextyear’sresultsforvariousbusinesses,selectingthebestmediaforlong-termexpansion—allthesehaveausefulplaceinWallStreet.
Whetherornotourownconceptofcommon-stock
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