Honesty.docx
- 文档编号:5012893
- 上传时间:2022-12-12
- 格式:DOCX
- 页数:13
- 大小:78.22KB
Honesty.docx
《Honesty.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《Honesty.docx(13页珍藏版)》请在冰豆网上搜索。
Honesty
文章一
Whyhonestyisthebestpolicy
Corporatedeceitisaslipperyslope
Mar7th2002|fromtheprintedition
Playitstraight,saysBuffettAP
FOReverycorporatecrookthereareatleasttencorporatedeceivers:
peoplewhofoolthemselvesthatthingsareotherthanwhattheyappeartobe.Atfirsttheydonotbreakthelaw,buteventuallytheyfindthatcorporatedeceitisdifficulttosustain.“Ohwhatatangledwebweweavewhenfirstwepractisetodeceive,”wroteSirWalterScottin1808.HemighthavebeentalkingaboutEnron,Lucent,Xeroxoranyoftheotherbigcorporatedeceiversthathavecometolightinrecentyears.
Deceitdemandsmoredeceituntileventuallythepilecollapsesundertheweightofitsownincredibility.AsWarrenBuffettputsit,“Onceacompanymovesearningsfromoneperiodtoanother,operatingshortfallsthatoccurthereafterrequireittoengageinfurtheraccountingmanoeuvresthatmustbeevenmore‘heroic'.Thesecanturnfudgingintofraud.”
ThemostoutstandingrecentexampleofthisisEnron,anenergy-tradingcompanyaswidelypraisedasanyonlinewonderattheheightoftheInterneteuphoria.Analystslovedit.Onepredictedthatitwouldcometodominatethewholesalemarketforelectricity,naturalgas,coal,energyderivativesandbandwidth,andonthreecontinents.Investors
loveditenoughtovaluethecompanyat$28billioninOctober2001,lessthantwomonthsbeforeitskiddedintobankruptcy.
Themediaalsolovedit.Withoutirony,Fortunemagazinevotedit“Themostinnovativecompanyoftheyear”for2000.AndTheEconomist,foritssins,wroteattheendofJunelastyearthat“EnronhascreatedwhatmaybethemostsuccessfulInternetventureofanycompanyinanyindustryanywhere”—notingthatthebannerwhichgreetedvisitorsatEnron'sHoustonheadquartershadrecentlybeenchangedfrom“Theworld'sleadingenergycompany”to“Theworld'sleadingcompany”.Rarelyhaspridecomebeforeabiggerfall.
Aboveall,though,consultantslovedit.In“TheWarforTalent”(HarvardBusinessSchoolPress,2001),EdMichaels,HelenHandfield-JonesandBethAxelrodwrotethat:
“FewcompanieswillbeabletoachievetheexcitementextravaganzathatEnronhasinitsremarkablebusinesstransformation,butmanycouldapplysomeoftheprinciples.”
Theauthors,allconsultantsatMcKinsey,heapedparticularpraiseonJeffSkilling,aformerMcKinseyconsultantwhobecameEnron'sCEO.InAugust2001hesuddenlyresignedfromEnron“forpersonalreasons”.MrSkillingtriedtoweldanewcultureontoanestablishedfirmbyrecruitingfast-trackMBAsandtraders.Itturnedouttobeanexplosiveformula.
ItwasnotthatEnronlackedsubstance,butintheendthehypegotthebetterofit.Tomeettheoutsideworld'sunrealisticexpectations,itbegantofudgethefigures.Todisguiseitsliabilities,itwrappedthemupinprivatepartnershipsandtookthemoffitsbalancesheet.Andtosatisfythewishfulthinkers'insatiabledemands,itbroughtearningsforwardbysellingsharesinotheroff-balance-sheetpartnerships,andcountingtheproceedsasrevenues.
Whenthisdeceitwasnolongersustainable,thecompanywasobligedtorestateitsearnings,whichcauseditscollapse.“Myhypothesis”,saysMichaelJensen,aformerprofessoratHarvardBusinessSchoolandnowadirectorattheMonitorGroup,astrategicconsultancy,“isthattheyoverreachedtotrytobecomeallthingstoeverybody,tobecometheworld'sgreatestcompany.Noonecangrowthatfast.”
NotallcorporatedeceptionisonthescaleofEnron's,butevenwhenitislittlemorethantheequivalentofawhitelie,itisstilldangerous.TakeeBay,oneofthefewreallysuccessfulbusinessestohavegrownoutoftheInternet.IthasareputationforgivingconservativefinancialforecaststoWallStreetanalysts,sotheyhavetakentosecond-guessingthecompanyandmarkingupitsforecasts.ThatputseBayunderpressuretohittargetsithadnotconsidereditselfcapableofachieving.Yetifitfailstoreachthem,WallStreetmaywellforgetthattheydidnotcomefromthecompanyinthefirstplace.
Stormwarning
Earlythisyear,eBaywaslevitatingonaprojectedp/eratioofover90,anumberthatreflectsinvestors'colossalexpectationsaboutitsfutureearnings.Anyslightdisappointmentcoulddealthesharepriceadisproportionatelylargeknock.Becauseofalltheotherthingsthatdependonacompany'ssharepricethesedays,suchaknockcanbringacompanydown.Fromtheflappingofabutterfly'swings,ahugetornadocanarise.
Inrecentyears,corporatedishonestyhasbeenencouragedbytheavailabilityofeasymoney.Thefinanceindustryismoregiventoherd-likebehaviourthananyother.Itsbossesalwaysimaginethattheirrivaldownthestreethasjuststumbledupontheperfectwaytomakerisk-freeprofits.Venturecapital,privateequity,commercialmortgage-backedsecurities,privatepartnerships...thelistofwaysofthrowingmoneyatriskyventuresfasterthanthecompetitionisconstantlybeingreplenished.
Onemaincauseofthedotcombubblewastheimmaturityoftheventure-capitalindustry
Onemaincauseofthedotcombubblewastheimmaturityoftheventure-capitalindustry.Ithadnothingliketheresourcesneededtomonitorthebusinessesinwhichitwasinvestingotherpeople'ssavings,soitwasflyinghalf-blind.Afirmwithmoremoneyandpromisethanperformance—andtherewereplentyofthoseinthelate1990s—hasalimitedrangeofchoices:
itcanreturnthemoney;itcanbemorerealisticaboutthepromise;oritcanlieaboutitsperformance.
Anumberofventure-capitalfirmsarenowtryingtobuilduptheirexpertisetogivetheirinvestmentsabetterchance.PaulGompers,aprofessorattheHarvardBusinessSchoolandco-authorof“TheMoneyofInvention”(HarvardBusinessSchoolPress,2001),arguesthattheventure-capitalindustryisgoingthroughthesamegrowingpainsasinvestmentbanking40yearsago.
Meanwhile,ithasbecomeharderthanatanytimeinthepastdecadeforgoodbusinessideastofindseedcapitalinAmerica.Forexample,astart-upcalledFluidSense,basedjustoutsideBoston,inventedaninfusionpumptodripfluidsintohospitalpatientsthatallowsthemtowalkaboutinsteadofremainingbedbound.In2000thiswasoneofTimemagazine'stopinventionsoftheyear;byOctober2001thecompanywasbankrupt,unabletofindthecapitaltokeepitgoing.
“Theventure-capitalindustryhasbeenpronetoovershooting,”saysMrGompers.Herd-likebehaviourensuresanalternationoffeastsandfamines.Forthemomentitisfaminetime,causedbyyesterday'sself-delusionalfeast.
Dangerousgames
Anumberofthingscanbedonetoencouragecorporatehonestyandhelptocounteractthepowerfulurgetodeceive.MrJensenandthebossoftheMonitorGroup,JoeFuller,havebeenarguing—intheWallStreetJournalandtheHarvardBusinessReview,amongotherplaces—thatthedialoguebetweenchiefexecutivesandWallStreetmustchange.Bossesneed“toputanendtotheexpectationsgamebysimplysaying‘no'towhathaseuphemisticallybeentermed‘earningsguidance',”theywroterecently.MrFullersaysthattherecessioninAmerica“givescompaniesanexcellentopportunitytoresettheconversationonanumberoflevels.”
Afewhavebeguntosetanexample.GeorgeDavid,thechiefexecutiveofUnitedTechnologies,stoodhisgroundlastDecemberwhenanalystscriticisedhis“conservative”targetforthegroup'searningsin2002.“You'veleftyourselfaself-imposedhurdlethatyoucanclearlyjumpoverwithoutexpendingmuchenergy,”complainedHowardRubel,ananalystwithGoldmanSachs.Thatcriticismcarriesmoreweighttodaythanitusedtobecauseagrowingnumberofpeoplestandtoloseoutfromalowhurdle,includingmanagersthemselves(throughshare-optionschemes)andemployees(throughtheirpensionfunds,whichinvestmoreandmoreintheirowncompany'sshares).JamesKilts,whobecamebossofGillettejustoverayearago,wentonestepfurther.AthisfirstfullmeetingwithWallStreetanalystsinJunelastyear,heridiculedearlierforecaststhatGillette'searningscouldgrowby18%ayearandresolutelyrefusedtogiveanearningsforecasthimself.
Itisnotjustthatacompany'smanagersneedtobehonestabouttheirperformance:
investorsalsoneedtotakeamoredispassionateviewofwhattheyaretold.InDecember,America'sSecuritiesandExchangeCommissiongaveawarningtoinvestorsthatpro-formaearningsreportsshouldbe“viewedwithappropriateandhealthyscepticism”.Suchfiguresareproducedbycompaniesforavarietyofpurposesandarenotusuallyauditedbytheirexternalaccountants.
Thehigh-techindustryhasmadeextensiveuseofpro-formaaccountstopumpupitsresults.SmartStockI,anonlineanalyst,reportedrecentlythatforthefirstthreequartersof2001,the100companiesintheNasdaq100indexannouncedpro-formaprofitsof$19.1billion.YetwhenthefigureswereprocessedinlinewithAmerica'sgenerallyacceptedaccountingprinciples(GAAP),whichcompanieshavetouseintheirauditedaccounts,that“profit”becamealossof$82.3billion.TheNasdaq100includescompaniessuchasMicrosoft,Intel,CiscoSystems,OracleandDell.Ofthese,onlyOracle'spro-formaresultsboreanyresemblancetoitsGAAPfigures.Cisco'spro-formaprofitof$700mtranslatedintoaGAAPlossof$3billion.
OtherstryingtoescapefromtheguidancegameincludeUSANetworks,anonlineretailandentertainmentgrouprunbyBarryDiller.InafilingwiththeSEClastOctober,thecompanysaidthatit“hasdecidedtochangeitsapproachtothe‘guidance'ritual”.Forthisandsubsequentyears,thecompany“willprovidetheinvestmentcommunitywithouractual
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- Honesty