视频经济学金融市场 16 货币政策 Monetary Policy.docx
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视频经济学金融市场 16 货币政策 Monetary Policy.docx
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视频经济学金融市场16货币政策MonetaryPolicy
Lecture16- TheEvolutionandPerfectionofMonetaryPolicy
Overview:
CentralBanks,originallycreatedasbankers'banks,implementmonetarypolicyusingtheirleverageoverthesupplyofmoneyandcreditstandards.SincetheBankofEnglandwasfoundedin1694,throughthegoldstandardwhichlasteduntilthe1930s,andintomoderntimes,centralbankshavepursuedmonetarypolicytostabilizethebankingsystem.Centralbanksmonitorcurrencyflowsandinflation,actingwhencrises,suchasbankruns,emerged.Morerecently,centralbankshavetakenanincreasinglyexpansiveroleinstabilizingeconomicfluctuations.Intheyettobeconfirmedcurrentrecession,theFederalReservehasusedopenmarketoperationsandinnovativefinancialarrangementstotrytoforestalltherecessionandbailoutfailingfinancialinstitutions.
Readingassignment:
Fabozzietal.FoundationsofFinancialMarketsandInstitutions,chapters5and6
JeremySiegel,StocksfortheLongRun,chapters11,12,and13
Hawtrey,R.G.,TheArtofCentralBanking,chapter4,pp.116-123
FinancialMarkets:
Lecture16Transcript
ProfessorRobertShiller:
Iwanttotalktodayaboutmonetarypolicy.Firstthough,IwantedtojustreviewsomethoughtsaboutCarlIcahn,whospokeonMonday.Ithoughthewasveryamusing.I'magainhappythatyouaskedquestionsbecausethat'swhenyoubringoutaspeakerreallywell.Ithoughtyoucouldhavegivenhimmoretrouble.Heisacontroversialfigure.Whathedoes,asyouknow,istakesoveracompanyandshakesthemupand,insomecases,isaccusedofstrippingtheirassets.But,it'salllegalandyoucouldmakeanargumentthatit'sinageneralgoodofoursocietythatpeopledothat.Ifacompany--ifitsstocksellsforlessthanitsassetsareworth,thenthecompanymaybeshouldbebrokenupandtheassetstakenandgivensomewhereelsebecausethelowstockpriceindicatesaproblem.
Idon'tknowhowtoevaluateeverythingIcahnhasdone,butsomecorporateraidershavebeenunkindtoemployees.Maybeit'snotalwaystheraider;it'sthatsomeemployeeshadtrustedinanimplicitcontractthattheywereofferedbytheiremployer.Forexample,theemployermayhavesaidverbally--orsuggestedtoanemployee--thatifyoudowell,we'llpromoteyouupandyouwillhavevariousadvantagesinthefuture.Thenanoutsideraidercomesinandjustfirestheemployee,sonaturallytheemployeefeelswronged.Thereareinstancesofthatsortofthing.Again,it'slikeanyonewhodoesimportantthings,it'shardtojudgethewholepictureandonthatIamsurehehascreatedvaluefortheeconomy.Someonesuggestedthatweshouldbringincorporateregulatorsaswell.IthinkmaybeinthenextyearI'lldothattooffset--I'mbringinginalotofverysuccessfulfinancepractitionersandIdon'thaveanyregulatorsthisyear.
Also,oneofyouasked,whatliteraturedoyouread?
HementionedtheNicomacheanEthics,whichIhaveneverread--Idon'tknowwhatthatis.HealsomentionedapoembyRudyardKiplingcalledIf.Ididn'trecognizewhathewasreferringtoimmediately,butIlookeditupandit'safamouspoemthatyoumusthaveseen--writtenin1910--aninspirationalpoem.IputitupontheClassesV2,notaspartofthereadinglist,butit'sunderResources,soyoucanreadKipling.Maybehethoughtofthatbecauseit'sreallyapoem--seemstobeapoemofadviceforyoungpeoplebecauseitendsup--thelastlineis--doyouknowthelastline?
Cansomeonereciteit?
What'sthelastline?
"Ifyoufollowtheseinstructions,youwillbeamanmyson."So,that'sthemodeofthoughthemayhavebeeninwhenhetalked.
Anyway,wehaveoursecondmid-termexamonMondayanditwillbelikethefirstmid-term,butitwillbelessmathematical.Thispartofthecoursehadlesstechnicalapparatusthanthefirstpartofthecourse,soitwillconcentrateonthemiddlethirdofthecourse,uptothislecture.YouhavetoreadFabozzi,etal.againcarefullybecauseI'mfreetotakeanythingfromKeyTermsandKeyConceptsfromthechaptersthatwereassignedforthispartofthecourse.Ofcourse,everyreadingthatisonline--Idon'texpectyoutogotothelibrary--issomethingImightaskabout.Aprileleventh,wehaveStephenSchwarzmancomingandI'mlookingforwardtothat.ThatwillagainbeaFriday,butitwillbeatnineo'clockandhewillbehere,soIthinkthatwillbealotoffunalso.
Iwanttothenstarttoday'stalk–lecture--whichisaboutmonetarypolicyandit'sreallyaproposrightnow.WearelivinginveryunusualtimesandIamsurethatBenBernankeandothercentralbankpresidentsarelosingsleeprightnowbecausethisisatimetochallengemonetarypolicymakers.Thethingthatreallyemergedjustinthelastweekorsoisthat--ofcourse,monetarypolicyisaboutsettingofinterestrates.Inthelastweek,theTreasurybillrateontheUnitedStatesfour-weekTreasurybill,whichisthestandard,essentially--three-month--itfellto0.2%.Thisisshocking.Whatishappeningnow?
Interestrateshavehitzero--0.2%;that'stwentybasispointsabovezero.PeoplehavelongthoughtthatthesekindsofthingshappenonlyinJapan,butthat'snottrueatall;it'shappeningrightnowintheU.S.
There'sbeenatotalcrashinTreasurybillrates,soit'snotgoingto--onethingweknowisthatthiscrashisover.TheTreasurybill--thethree-monthTreasurybillratehascrashed--it'svirtuallyzero--andthestoryisoverbecauseitcan'tgoanylower.Well,itcouldgotwentybasispointslower,butinterestratescanneverbenegative.So,that'sit;it'sover;we'vejusthitzero.Thisisthethingthatworriescentralbankers.Wheninterestrateshitzero,thentheydon'thave--it'salittlebitlikeyoursteeringsystemonyourcarfreezinguporhittinga--you'rehydroplaningonthehighway;yoursteeringwheeldoesn'tworkanymore.Onceinterestrateshitzero,youcan'tcutthemanymoreandthat'swhattheFedwantstodo.I'mtalkingaboutfour-weekTreasurybills;theFederalFundsRateisstillat2¼%,butatleastthemoreprominentthree-monthT-billrateisattheend.
WhatIwanttodoistalkaboutwhattheFedinthiscountryisdoingandwhatothercentralbanksaredoing.Iwanttostartbyputtingitinhistoricalperspective.Ifyou'llallowme,Iwilltalkfirstaboutjustwhatisacentralbank,suchastheFederalReserve,andwhatdotheydo.Iwanttofirstjustgoback--thestoryItoldyouinarecentlecturewasthestoryofagoldsmithbanker.Thisishowitstarted.Therewerepeople--goldsmithswerepeoplewhoworkedinthemetalgoldandmadebeautifulthingsforpeople--jewelryandotherthings.Theyhadsafesintheirshopandsomepeoplewouldsaytothegoldsmith,Ihavesomevaluables.Idon'thaveasafe--canIputitinyoursafe?
Thegoldsmithwouldsay,okay.Thenhe'dwriteonalittlenoteandhandittotheguyandsay,justkeepthisnote.Ifitwasabearernote--ifthenotesaid,I'llpay--ifitwasn'tauniqueobjectbutjustgold,thenotewouldsaythatthisgoldsmithwillpaytothebearersomanyouncesofgold.Andthat'showbankinggotstarted.
Itemergedintoaninstitutioninwhichbankswouldhavenotes--banknotes--thatcirculatedwidelyandwebegantothinkofthemasmoney.Ifyouputyourgoldinthecareofagoldsmith,initiallyyoudon'tthink--youthinkthemoneyisthere.Buteventually,youhavethisbearernotethatyoustartpassingaroundtospendtootherpeopleandtheystarttothinkofthemasmoneyandthat'stheoriginofbanking.Ifyouasksomeoneacouplehundredyearsago,what'stheessenceofabank?
Theywouldsay,ohtheyprintpapermoney--privatebanksprintpapermoney,notjustgovernmentbanks.Well,thereweren'tgovernmentbanks;originally,theywereallprivate.
Thereisaninstitutioncalledthe"goldstandard"--nowtotallyandcompletelygoneeverywhereintheworld.Whatitwas--itbegan--thefirstcountrytoadoptthegoldstandardofficiallywastheUnitedKingdomandthatwasin1717.WhatitmeantwasthatthegovernmentoftheU.K.committedthattheirpapermoneywouldalwaysandatalltimesberedeemableingold.ItwasgraduallyadoptedbyothercountriesthroughtimeandtheUnitedStatesdidn'tofficiallyadoptituntil1900.Letmejustgobacktothewaythethingworked.Itusedtobethatitwas–actually,thegoldstandardkindofcameinbyaccidentinEngland,originally;thatwasinthe1600s.Theprominentcoinwascalledtheshillinganditwasasilvercoin.TheBritishpoundwastwentyshillings,soeffectively,thepoundwasonasilverstandard.Thentheystartedmintingnewcoinsoutofgoldandthegovernmentwasissuingcoins--theycalledthemguineas.Theystartedoutasa--theyjustmintedtheamountinonecoin,whichtheythoughtwasequivalenttotwentyshillings.So,theyhadaguinea,whichtheysaidwastwentyshillings,andthenthereweretwocoins--eithershillingsorguineas--thatwasthemoneyatthetime.
Then,theproblemwasthattheprice--relativepriceofthosetwo--wasnotreallyfixedbythegovernment.So,itstartedtodriftandpeoplestartedtothink,Ithinkaguineaisworthmorethantwentyshillingsandthemarketpricedrifteduptotwenty-oneshillings.So,thegovernmentwasupset--oftheU.K.Wewantedthistobeatwentyshillingcoin,butnowinthemarketit'stradingattwenty-one.Thentheyimplementedarulethattheguineaisworthtwenty-oneshillings.Then,therelativepriceofgoldversussilvershiftedtothepointthatthegoldwith--atthetwenty-oneshillingexchangerate,thegoldshillingwasworthless--thegoldguineawasworthlessthantwenty-oneshilling.So,alltheshillingsdisappearedandtheonlycoinleftwasthe
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