01 Introduction five first lessons.docx
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01 Introduction five first lessons.docx
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01Introductionfivefirstlessons
GameTheory:
Lecture1Transcript
Overview:
WeintroduceGameTheorybyplayingagame.Weorganizethegameintoplayers,theirstrategies,andtheirgoalsorpayoffs;andwelearnthatweshoulddecidewhatourgoalsarebeforewemakechoices.Withsomeplausiblepayoffs,ourgameisaprisoners'dilemma.Welearnthatweshouldneverchooseadominatedstrategy;butthatrationalplaybyrationalplayerscanleadtobadoutcomes.Wediscusssomeprisoners'dilemmasintherealworldandsomepossiblereal-worldremedies.Withotherplausiblepayoffs,ourgameisacoordinationproblemandhasverydifferentoutcomes:
sodifferentpayoffsmatter.Weoftenneedtothink,notonlyaboutourownpayoffs,butalsoothers'payoffs.Weshouldputourselvesinothers'shoesandtrytopredictwhattheywilldo.Thisistheessenceofstrategicthinking.
September5,2007
< ProfessorBenPolak: SothisisGameTheoryEconomics159.Ifyou'rehereforarthistory,you'reeitherinthewrongroomorstayanyway,maybethisistherightroom;butthisisGameTheory,okay.Youshouldhavefourhandouts;everyoneshouldhavefourhandouts.Thereisalegalreleaseform--we'lltalkaboutitinaminute--aboutthevideoing.Thereisasyllabus,whichisapreliminarysyllabus: it'salsoonline.AndtherearetwogameslabeledGame1andGame2.CanIgetyoualltolookatGame1andstartthinkingaboutit.Andwhileyou'rethinkingaboutit,Iamhopingyoucanmultitaskabit.I'lldescribeabitabouttheclassandwe'llgetabitofadminunderourbelts.Butpleasetryandlookat--somebody'snotlookingatit,becausethey'reusingitasafanhere--solookatGame1andfilloutthatformforme,okay? Sowhileyou'refillingthatout,letmetellyoualittlebitaboutwhatwe'regoingtobedoinghere.SowhatisGameTheory? GameTheoryisamethodofstudyingstrategicsituations.Sowhat'sastrategicsituation? Welllet'sstartoffwithwhat'snotastrategicsituation.InyourEconomics-inyourIntroEconomicsclassin115or110,yousawsomeprettygoodexamplesofsituationsthatwerenotstrategic.Yousawfirmsworkinginperfectcompetition.Firmsinperfectcompetitionarepricetakers: theydon'tparticularlyhavetoworryabouttheactionsoftheircompetitors.Youalsosawfirmsthatweremonopolistsandmonopolistsdon'thaveanycompetitorstoworryabout,sothat'snotaparticularlystrategicsituation.They'renotpricetakersbuttheytakethedemandcurve.Isthislookingfamiliarforsomeofyouwhocanrememberdoing115lastyearormaybetwoyearsagoforsomeofyou? Everythinginbetweenisstrategic.Soeverythingthatconstitutesimperfectcompetitionisastrategicsetting.Thinkaboutthemotorindustry,themotorcarindustry.FordhastoworryaboutwhatGMisdoingandwhatToyotaisdoing,andforthemomentatleastwhatChryslerisdoingbutperhapsnotforlong.Sothere'sasmallnumberoffirmsandtheiractionsaffecteachother. Soforaliteraldefinitionofwhatstrategicmeans: it'sasettingwheretheoutcomesthataffectyoudependonactions,notjustonyourownactions,butonactionsofothers.Allright,that'sasmuchasI'mgoingtosayforpreviewrightnow,we'regoingtocomebackandseeplentyofthisoverthecourseofthenextsemester. SowhatIwanttodoisgetontowherethisapplies.ItobviouslyappliesinEconomics,butitalsoappliesinpolitics,andinfact,thisclasswillcountasaPoliticalScienceclassifyou'reaPoliticalSciencemajor.YoushouldgocheckwiththeDUSinPoliticalScience.Itcount-GameTheoryisveryimportantinlawthesedays.Soforthoseofyou--forthehalfofyou--thataregoingtoendupinlawschool,thisisprettygoodtraining.GameTheoryisalsousedinbiologyandtowardsthemiddleofthesemesterwe'reactuallygoingtoseesomeexamplesofGameTheoryasappliedtoevolution.Andnotsurprisingly,GameTheoryappliestosport. Solet'stalkaboutabitofadmin.Howareyoudoingonfillingoutthosegames? Everyonemanagingtomultitask: fillinginGame1? Keepwriting.IwanttogetsomeadminoutofthewayandIwanttostartbygettingoutofthewaywhatisobviouslytheelephantintheroom.Someofyouwillhavenoticedthatthere'sacameracrewhere,okay.Soassomeofyouprobablyknow,Yaleisundergoinganopeneducationprojectandthey'revideoingseveralclasses,andtheideaofthis,istomakeeducationalmaterialsavailablebeyondthewallsofYale.Infact,ontheweb,internationally,sopeopleinplaces,maybeplacesintheU.S.orplacesmilesaway,maybeinTimbuktuorwhatever,whofinditdifficulttogeteducationalmaterialsfromthelocaluniversityorwhatever,canwatchcertainlecturesfromYaleontheweb. Someofyouwouldhavebeeninclassesthatdothatbefore.What'sgoingtodifferentaboutthisclassisthatyou'regoingtobeparticipatinginit.Thewayweteachthisclassiswe'regoingtoplaygames,we'regoingtohavediscussions,we'regoingtotalkamongtheclass,andyou'regoingtobelearningfromeachother,andIwantyoutohelppeoplewatchingathometobeabletolearntoo.Andthatmeansyou'regoingtobeonfilm,attheveryleastonmike. Sohow'sthatgoingtowork? AroundtheroomarethreeT.A.sholdingmikes.Letmeshowyouwheretheyare: onehere,onehere,andonehere.WhenIaskforclassroomdiscussions,I'mgoingtohaveoneoftheT.A.sgotoyouwithamicrophonemuchlikein"Donahue"orsomething,okay.Atcertaintimes,you'regoingtobeseenonfilm,sothecameraisactuallygoingtocomearoundandpointinyourdirection. NowIreallywantthistohappen.Ihadtoargueforthistohappen,causeIreallyfeelthatthisclassisn'taboutme.I'mpartoftheclassobviously,butit'saboutyouteachingeachotherandparticipating.Butthere'sacatch,thecatchis,thatthatmeansyouhavetosignthatlegalreleaseform. Soyou'llseethatyouhaveinfrontofyoualegalreleaseform,youhavetobeabletosignit,andwhatthatsaysisthatwecanuseyoubeingshowninclass.Thinkofthisasabadhairdayreleaseform.Allright,youcan'tsueYalelaterifyouhadabadhairday.ForthoseofyouwhoareontherunfromtheFBI,yourVisahasrunout,oryou'resittingnexttoyourex-girlfriend,nowwouldbeagoodtimetoputapaperbagoveryourhead. Allright,nowjusttogetyouusedtotheidea,ineveryclasswe'regoingtohaveIthinkthesametwopeople,soJudeisthecameraman;whydon'tyouallwavetoJude: thisisJudeokay.AndWesisouraudioguy: thisisWes.AndIwilltryandremembernottoincludeJudeandWesintheclassroomdiscussions,butyoushouldbeawarethatthey'rethere.Now,ifthisismakingyounervous,ifit'sanyconsolation,it'smakingmeverynervous. So,allright,we'lltryandmakethisclassworkassmoothlyaswecan,allowingforthisextrathing.Letmejustsay,noone'smakinganymoneyoffthis--atleastI'mhopingtheseguysarebeingpaid--butmeandtheT.A.sarenotbeingpaid.Theaimofthis,thatIthinkisagoodaim,it'saneducationalproject,andI'mhopingyou'llhelpuswithit.Theonedifferenceitisgoingtomean,isthatattimesImightholdsomeofthediscussionsfortheclass,comingdownintothispartoftheroom,here,tomakeitalittleeasierforJude. Allright,howarewedoingnowonfillingoutthoseforms? Haseveryonefilledintheirstrategyforthefirstgame? Notyet.Okay,let'sgoondoingabitmoreadmin.ThethingyoumostlycareaboutI'mguessing,isthegrades.Allright,sohowisthegradegoingtoworkforthisclass? 30%oftheclasswillbeonproblemsets,30%ofthegrade;30%onthemid-term,and40%onthefinal;so30/30/40. Themid-termwillbeheldinclassonOctober17th;thatisalsoinyoursyllabus.Pleasedon'tanybodytellmelate-anytimeaftertodayyoudidn'tknowwhenthemid-termwasandthereforeitclasheswith17differentthings.Themid-termisonOctober 17th,whichisaWednesday,inclass.Allright,theproblemsets: therewillberoughlytenproblemsetsandI'lltalkaboutthemmorelateronwhenIhandthemout.ThefirstonewillgooutonMondaybutitwillbeduetendayslater.Roughlyspeakingthey'llbeeveryweek. Thegradedistribution: allright,sothisistheroughgradedistribution.Roughlyspeaking,asixthoftheclassaregoingtoendupwithA's,asixtharegoingtoendupwithA-,asixtharegoingtoendupwithB+,asixtharegoingtoendupwithB,asixtharegoingtoendupwithB-,andtheremainingsixth,ifIaddedthatupright,aregoingtoendupwithwhatIguesswe'renowcallingthepresidentialgrade,isthatright? That'snotliterallytrue.I'mgoingtosqueezeitabit,I'mgoingtocurveitabit,soactuallyslightlyfewerthanasixthwillgetstraightA's,andfewerthanasixthwillgetC'sandbelow.We'llsqueezethemiddletomakethembemoreB's.OnethingIcanguaranteefrompastexperienceinthisclass,isthatthemediangradewillbeaB+.ThemedianwillfallsomewhereintheB+'s.Justasforewarningforpeoplewhohaveforgottenwhatamedianis,thatmeanshalfofyou--notapproximatelyhalf,itmeansexactlyhalfofyou--willbegettingsomethinglikeB+andbelowandhalfwillgetsomethinglikeB+andabove. Now,howareyoudoinginfillingintheforms? Everyonefilledtheminyet? Surelymustbeprettyclosetogettingeveryonefilledin.Allright,solastthingstotalkaboutbeforeIactuallycollectthemin-textbooks.Therearetextbooksforthisclass.Themaintextbookisthisone,Dutta'sbookStrategyandGames.Ifyouwantaslightlytougherbook,morerigorousbook,tryJoelWatson'sbook,Strategies.Bothof
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- 01 Introduction five first lessons