智者投资箴言英文.docx
- 文档编号:4303653
- 上传时间:2022-11-29
- 格式:DOCX
- 页数:23
- 大小:41.93KB
智者投资箴言英文.docx
《智者投资箴言英文.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《智者投资箴言英文.docx(23页珍藏版)》请在冰豆网上搜索。
智者投资箴言英文
1.ArtofStockPickingByCharlieMunger
I'mgoingtoplayaminortrickonyoutodaybecausethesubjectofmytalkistheartofstockpickingasasubdivisionoftheartofworldlywisdom.ThatenablesmetostarttalkingaboutworldlywisdomamuchbroadertopicthatinterestsmebecauseIthinkalltoolittleofitisdeliveredbymoderneducationalsystems,atleastinaneffectiveway.
Andtherefore,thetalkissortofalongthelinesthatsomebehavioristpsychologistscallGrandma'sruleafterthewisdomofGrandmawhenshesaidthatyouhavetoeatthecarrotsbeforeyougetthedessert.
Thecarrotpartofthistalkisaboutthegeneralsubjectofworldlywisdomwhichisaprettygoodwaytostart.Afterall,thetheoryofmoderneducationisthatyouneedageneraleducationbeforeyouspecialize.AndIthinktosomeextent,beforeyou'regoingtobeagreatstockpicker,youneedsomegeneraleducation.
So,emphasizingwhatIsometimeswaggishlycallremedialworldlywisdom,I'mgoingtostartbywaltzingyouthroughafewbasicnotions.
Whatiselementary,worldlywisdom?
Well,thefirstruleisthatyoucan'treallyknowanythingifyoujustrememberisolatedfactsandtryandbang'emback.Ifthefactsdon'thangtogetheronalatticeworkoftheory,youdon'thavetheminausableform.
You'vegottohavemodelsinyourhead.Andyou'vegottoarrayyourexperiencebothvicariousanddirectonthislatticeworkofmodels.Youmayhavenoticedstudentswhojusttrytorememberandpoundbackwhatisremembered.Well,theyfailinschoolandinlife.You'vegottohangexperienceonalatticeworkofmodelsinyourhead.
Whatarethemodels?
Well,thefirstruleisthatyou'vegottohavemultiplemodelsbecauseifyoujusthaveoneortwothatyou'reusing,thenatureofhumanpsychologyissuchthatyou'lltorturerealitysothatitfitsyourmodels,oratleastyou'llthinkitdoes.Youbecometheequivalentofachiropractorwho,ofcourse,isthegreatboobinmedicine.
It'sliketheoldsaying,"Tothemanwithonlyahammer,everyproblemlookslikeanail."Andofcourse,that'sthewaythechiropractorgoesaboutpracticingmedicine.Butthat'saperfectlydisastrouswaytothinkandaperfectlydisastrouswaytooperateintheworld.Soyou'vegottohavemultiplemodels.
Andthemodelshavetocomefrommultipledisciplinesbecauseallthewisdomoftheworldisnottobefoundinonelittleacademicdepartment.That'swhypoetryprofessors,byandlarge,aresounwiseinaworldlysense.Theydon'thaveenoughmodelsintheirheads.Soyou'vegottohavemodelsacrossafairarrayofdisciplines.
Youmaysay,"MyGod,thisisalreadygettingwaytootough."But,fortunately,itisn'tthattoughbecause80or90importantmodelswillcarryabout90%ofthefreightinmakingyouaworldlywiseperson.And,ofthose,onlyamerehandfulreallycarryveryheavyfreight.
Solet'sbrieflyreviewwhatkindofmodelsandtechniquesconstitutethisbasicknowledgethateverybodyhastohavebeforetheyproceedtobeingreallygoodatanarrowartlikestockpicking.
Firstthere'smathematics.Obviously,you'vegottobeabletohandlenumbersandquantitiesbasicarithmetic.Andthegreatusefulmodel,aftercompoundinterest,istheelementarymathofpermutationsandcombinations.Andthatwastaughtinmydayinthesophomoreyearinhighschool.Isupposebynowingreatprivateschools,it'sprobablydowntotheeighthgradeorso.
It'sverysimplealgebra.ItwasallworkedoutinthecourseofaboutoneyearbetweenPascalandFermat.Theyworkeditoutcasuallyinaseriesofletters.
It'snotthathardtolearn.Whatishardistogetsoyouuseitroutinelyalmosteverydayofyourlife.TheFermat/Pascalsystemisdramaticallyconsonantwiththewaythattheworldworks.Andit'sfundamentaltruth.Soyousimplyhavetohavethetechnique.
Manyeducationalinstitutions‑althoughnotnearlyenoughhaverealizedthis.AtHarvardBusinessSchool,thegreatquantitativethingthatbondsthefirstyearclasstogetheriswhattheycalldecisiontreetheory.Alltheydoistakehighschoolalgebraandapplyittoreallifeproblems.Andthestudentsloveit.They'reamazedtofindthathighschoolalgebraworksinlife....
Byandlarge,asitworksout,peoplecan'tnaturallyandautomaticallydothis.Ifyouunderstandelementarypsychology,thereasontheycan'tisreallyquitesimple:
Thebasicneuralnetworkofthebrainistherethroughbroadgeneticandculturalevolution.Andit'snotFermat/Pascal.Itusesaverycrude,shortcuttypeofapproximation.It'sgotelementsofFermat/Pascalinit.However,it'snotgood.
Soyouhavetolearninaveryusablewaythisveryelementarymathanduseitroutinelyinlife‑justthewayifyouwanttobecomeagolfer,youcan'tusethenaturalswingthatbroadevolutiongaveyou.Youhavetolearntohaveacertaingripandswinginadifferentwaytorealizeyourfullpotentialasagolfer.
Ifyoudon'tgetthiselementary,butmildlyunnatural,mathematicsofelementaryprobabilityintoyourrepertoire,thenyougothroughalonglifelikeaone‑leggedmaninanass‑kickingcontest.You'regivingahugeadvantagetoeverybodyelse.
OneoftheadvantagesofafellowlikeBuffett,whomI'veworkedwithalltheseyears,isthatheautomaticallythinksintermsofdecisiontreesandtheelementarymathofpermutationsandcombinations....
Obviously,youhavetoknowaccounting.It'sthelanguageofpracticalbusinesslife.Itwasaveryusefulthingtodelivertocivilization.I'vehearditcametocivilizationthroughVenicewhichofcoursewasoncethegreatcommercialpowerintheMediterranean.However,double-entrybookkeepingwasahellofaninvention.
Andit'snotthathardtounderstand.
Butyouhavetoknowenoughaboutittounderstanditslimitations‑becausealthoughaccountingisthestartingplace,it'sonlyacrudeapproximation.Andit'snotveryhardtounderstanditslimitations.Forexample,everyonecanseethatyouhavetomoreorlessjustguessattheusefullifeofajetairplaneoranythinglikethat.Justbecauseyouexpressthedepreciationrateinneatnumbersdoesn'tmakeitanythingyoureallyknow.
Intermsofthelimitationsofaccounting,oneofmyfavoritestoriesinvolvesaverygreatbusinessmannamedCarlBraunwhocreatedtheCFBraunEngineeringCompany.Itdesignedandbuiltoilrefineries‑whichisveryhardtodo.AndBraunwouldgetthemtocomeinontimeandnotblowupandhaveefficienciesandsoforth.Thisisamajorart.
AndBraun,beingthethoroughTeutonictypethathewas,hadanumberofquirks.Andoneofthemwasthathetookalookatstandardaccountingandthewayitwasappliedtobuildingoilrefineriesandhesaid,"Thisisasinine."
Sohethrewallofhisaccountantsoutandhetookhisengineersandsaid,"Now,we'lldeviseourownsystemofaccountingtohandlethisprocess."Andinduetime,accountingadoptedalotofCarlBraun'snotions.Sohewasaformidablywillfulandtalentedmanwhodemonstratedboththeimportanceofaccountingandtheimportanceofknowingitslimitations.
Hehadanotherrule,frompsychology,which,ifyou'reinterestedinwisdom,oughttobepartofyourrepertoire‑liketheelementarymathematicsofpermutationsandcombinations.
HisruleforalltheBraunCompany'scommunicationswascalledthefiveW's‑youhadtotellwhowasgoingtodowhat,where,whenandwhy.AndifyouwrotealetterordirectiveintheBraunCompanytellingsomebodytodosomething,andyoudidn'ttellhimwhy,youcouldgetfired.Infact,youwouldgetfiredifyoudidittwice.
Youmightaskwhythatissoimportant?
Well,againthat'saruleofpsychology.Justasyouthinkbetterifyouarrayknowledgeonabunchofmodelsthatarebasicallyanswerstothequestion,why,why,why,ifyoualwaystellpeoplewhy,they'llunderstanditbetter,they'llconsideritmoreimportant,andthey'llbemorelikelytocomply.Eveniftheydon'tunderstandyourreason,they'llbemorelikelytocomply.
Sothere'sanironrulethatjustasyouwanttostartgettingworldlywisdombyaskingwhy,why,why,incommunicatingwithotherpeopleabouteverything,youwanttoincludewhy,why,why.Evenifit'sobvious,it'swisetostickinthewhy.
Whichmodelsarethemostreliable?
Well,obviously,themodelsthatcomefromhardscienceandengineeringarethemostreliablemodelsonthisEarth.Andengineeringqualitycontrol‑atleastthegutsofitthatmatterstoyouandmeandpeoplewhoarenotprofessionalengineers‑isverymuchbasedontheelementarymathematicsofFermatandPascal:
Itcostssomuchandyougetsomuchlesslikelihoodofitbreakingifyouspendthismuch.It'sallelementaryhighschoolmathematics.AndanelaborationofthatiswhatDemingbroughttoJapanforallofthatqualitycontrolstuff.
Idon'tthinkit'snecessaryformostpeopletobeterriblyfacileinstatistics.Forexample,I'mnotsurethatIcanevenpronouncethePoissondistribution.ButIknowwhataGaussianornormaldistributionlookslikeandIknowthateventsandhugeaspectsofrealityendupdistributedthatway.SoIcandoaroughcalculation.
ButifyouaskmetoworkoutsomethinginvolvingaGaussiandistributiontotendecimalpoints,Ican'tsitdownanddothemath.I'mlikeapokerplayerwho'slearnedtoplayprettywellwithoutmasteringPascal.
Andbytheway,thatworkswellenough.Butyouhavetounderstandthatbell‑shapedcurveatleastroughlyaswellasIdo.
And,ofcourse,theengineeringideaofabackupsystemisaverypowerfulidea.Theengineeringideaofbreakpointsthat'saverypowerfulmodel,too.Thenotionofacriticalmassthatcomesoutofphysicsisaverypowerfulmodel.
Allof
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 智者 投资 箴言 英文
![提示](https://static.bdocx.com/images/bang_tan.gif)