第六章 决策分析方法.docx
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第六章 决策分析方法.docx
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第六章决策分析方法
第六章决策分析方法
①《NASASEHANDBOOK》
6.8DecisionAnalysis
6.8.1ProcessDescription
6.8.1.1 Inputs
6.8.1.2 Process Activities
6.8.1.3 Outputs
6.8.2 Decision Analysis Guidance
6.8.2.1 Systems Analysis, Simulation, and Performance
6.8.2.2 Trade Studies
6.8.2.3 Cost-Benefit Analysis
6.8.2.4 Influence Diagrams(影响图)
6.8.2.5 Decision Trees (决策树)
6.8.2.6 Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (多目标决策分析)
6.8.2.7 Utility Analysis
6.8.2.8 Risk-Informed Decision Analysis Process Example
②《SYSTEMSENGINEERINGPRINCIPLESANDPRACTICE》
9DECISIONANALYSISANDSUPPORT
9.1DecisionMaking(决策过程与因素、决策框架)
9.5Trade-OffAnalysis(综合分析,权衡分析)
9.1DECISIONMAKING
Simpledecisionmakingtypicallyrequiresnothingmorethansomebasicinformationandintuition.Forexample,decidingwhatonewillhaveforbreakfastrequiressomeinformation—whatfoodisavailable,whatcookingskilllevelisavailable,andhowmuchtimeonehas.Theoutputofthissimpledecisionisthefoodthatistobeprepared.Butcomplexdecisionsrequiremoreinputs,moreoutputs,andmuchmoreplanning.Furthermore,informationthatiscollectedneedstobeorganized,integrated(orfused),andpresentedtodecisionmakersinsuchawayastoprovideadequatesupporttomake"good"decisions.
Figure9.1depictsasimplifieddecision-makingprocessforcomplexdecisions.Amoredetailedprocesswillbepresentedlaterinthechapter.
Figure9.1Basicdecision-makingprocess.
Obviously,thisappearstoberathercumbersome.However,howmuchtime,energy,andthelevelofresourcecommitmentdevotedtoeachstagewillbedependentonthetype,complexity,andscopeofthedecisionrequired.Formaldecisions,typicalinlargegovernmentacquisitionprograms,maytakeyears,whilecomponentdecisionsforarelativelysimplesystemmayrequireonlyhoursorless.
Eachstagerequiresafiniteamountoftime.Even“makingthedecision”isnotnecessarilyinstantaneous.Forexample,ifmorethanasinglepersonmustmakeandapprovethedecision,thisstagemaybequitelengthy.Ifconsensusisrequired,thenthisstagemaybecomequiteinvolved,andwouldincludepoliticalaswellastechnicalandprogrammaticconsiderations.Governmentlegislaturesaregoodexamplesinunderstandingtheresourcesrequiredineachstep.Planning,gathering,andorganizingareusuallycompletedbystaffsandthroughpublicandprivatehearings.Thestage,makingthedecision,isactuallyaninvolvedprocessthatincludespoliticalmaneuvering,dealmaking,marketing,campaigning,andposturing.Thisstagehaslastedmonthsinmanycases.
Regardlessofthetypeofdecision,ortheforumwithinwhichthedecisionwillbemade,therearemanyfactorsthatmustbeconsideredtoinitiateandcompletetheplanningstage.
FactorsintheDecision-MakingProcess
Complexdecisionsrequireanunderstandingofthemultidimensionalityoftheprocessbeforeanappropriateandusefuldecisioncanbemade.Thefollowingfactorsneedtobeconsideredaspartoftheplanningstage.
GoalsandObjectives.Beforemakingdecisions,oneneedstoask:
whatarethegoalsandobjectivesofthestakeholders?
Thesewillprobablybedifferentatdifferentlevelsoftheorganization.Thegoalsofalinesupervisorwillbedifferentthanaprogrammanager.Whichholdsthehigherpriority?
Andwhatarethegoalsofmanagementabovethedecisionmaker?
Thedecisionshouldbemadetosatisfy(asfaraspossible)thegoalsandobjectivesoftheimportantstakeholders.
DecisionType.Thedecisionmakerneedstounderstandthetypeofdecisionrequired.Manybaddecisionsstemfromamisunderstandingaboutthetyperequired.Isthedecisionbinary?
Maybethedecisionisconcernedwithapermissionofsomesort.Inthesecases,asimpleyes/nodecisionisrequired.Otherbinarydecisionsmaynotbeyesorno,butachoicebetweentwoalternatives,makeorbuybeingaclassicexample.Morecomplexdecisionstypicallyinvolveoneormorechoicesamongasetofalternatives.Lastly,thedecisionmakerneedstounderstandwhoandwhatwillbeaffected.Isthedecisionpurelytechnical,oristhereapersonalelement?
Providingthewrongtypeofdecisionwillcertainlyleadtosignificantlynegativeconsequences.
Inthesamevein,understandingwhoneedstobeincludedinthedecisionisvital.Isthisdecisiontobemadebyanindividual?
Orisaconsensusamongagrouprequired?
Whoneedstoapprovethedecisionbeforeitisimplemented?
Theanswerstothesequestionsinfluenceswhen,andhow,decisionswillbemade.
DecisionContext.Understandingthescopeofthedecisionisalsoessentialtomakingaproperdecision.Aglobal(orenterprise-wide)decisionwillbemuchdifferentthanasystemcomponentdecision.Theconsequencesofawrongdecisionwillbefar-reachingifthedecisionaffectstheenterprise,forexample.Contextinvolvesunderstandingtheproblemorissuethatledtoadecisionpoint.Thiswillbedifficultsincecontexthasmanydimensions,leadingtodifferentgoalsandobjectivesforyourdecisionmaker:
●technical,involvingphysicalentities,suchassubsystemdecisions;
●financial,involvinginvestmentinstrumentsandquantities;
●personnel,involvingpeople;
●process,involvingbusinessandtechnicalprocedures,methods,andtechniques;
●programmatic,involvingresourceallocations(includingtime,space,andfunding);
●temporal,meaningthetimeframeinwhichadecisionisneeded(thismaybedynamic);and
●legacy,involvingpastdecisions.
Stakeholders.Stakeholderscanbedefinedasanyone(peopleororganizations)whowillbeaffectedbytheresultsofthedecision.Understandingwhothestakeholdersarewithrespecttoadecisionneedstobeestablishedbeforeadecisionismade.Manytimes,thisdoesnotoccur—stakeholdersarenotrecognizedbeforeadecisionismade.Yet,oncethedecisionisannouncedorimplemented,wecanbesurethatallwhoareaffectedwillmaketheiropinionheard.
LegacyDecisions.Understandingwhatrelevantdecisionshavebeenmadeinthepasthelpswithboththecontext(describedabove)andtheenvironmentinwhichthecurrentdecisionmustbemade.Consequencesandstakeholderscanbeidentifiedmorereadilyifthedecisionmakerhasknowledgeofthepast.
SupportingData.Finally,necessarysupportingdataforthedecisionneedtobeprovidedinatimelyfashion.Acoherentandtimelydatacollectionplanisneededtoensureproperinformationcanbegatheredtosupportthedecision.Accuracyindatacollectedisdependentonthedecisiontypeandcontext.Manytimes,decisionsaredelayedunnecessarilybecausegreateraccuracythanneededwasdemandedbeforethedecisionmakerwouldact.
DecisionFramework
Asmentionedabove,understandingthetypeofdecisionneedediscriticalinplanningforandexecutinganyprocess.Severaldecisionframeworksareavailableintheliteraturetoassistinunderstandingthedecisiontype.InTable9.1,wepresentaframeworkthatisacombinationofseveral.
TABLE9.1DecisionFramework
ScopeofControl
Typeof
Decision
Operational
Managerial
Strategicplanning
Technologyneeded
Structured
Known
procedures
algorithms
PoliciesLaws
Trade-off
analysis
Logic
Historical
analysis
Goal-oriented
taskanalysis
Information
systems
Semistructured
Tailored
procedures
Heuristics
Tailored
policies
Heuristics
Logic
CausalityROI
analysis
Probabilities
Decision
support
systems
Unstructured
Intuition
Experimental
Intuition
Experimental
Intuition
Creativity
Theory
Expert
systems
Therearemanywaystocategorizedecisions.Ourcategorizationfocusesonthreetypesofdecisions:
structured,semistructured,andunstructured.
Structured.Thesetypesofdecisionstendtoberoutine,inthatthecontextiswellunderstoodandthedecisionscopeisknown.Supportinginformationisusuallyavailable,andminimalorganizationorprocessingisnecessarytomakeagooddecision.Inmanycases,standardsareavailable,eithergloballyorwithinanorganization,toprovidesolutionmethods.Structureddecisionshavetypicallybeenmadeinthepast;thus,adecisionmakerhasahistoricalrecordofsimilarorexactdecisionsmadeliketheoneheisfacing.
Semistructured.Thesetypesofdecisionsfalloutsideof“routine.”Althoughsimilardecisionsmayhavebeenmade,circumstancesaredifferentenoughthatpastdecisionsarenotaclearindicatoroftherightdecisionchoice.Typically,guidanceisavailablethough,evenwhenspecificmethodsarenot.Manysystemsengineeringdecisionsfallwithinthecategory.
Unstructured.Unstructureddecisionsrepresentcomplexproblemsthatareuniqueandtypicallyone-time.Decisionsregardingnewtechnologiestendtofallintothiscategoryduetothelackofexperienceorknowledgeofthesituation.First-timedecisionsfallintothiscategory.Asexperiencegrowsanddecisionsaretested,theymaytransitionfromanunstructureddecisiontothesemistructuredcategory.Inadditiontothetype,thescopeofcontrolisimportanttorecognize.Decisionswithineachscopearestructureddifferently,havedifferentstakeholders,andrequiredifferenttechnologiestosupport.
Operational.Thisisthelowestscopeofcontrolthatsystemsengineeringisconcernedabout.Operationalcontrolisatthepractitionerlevel—theengineers,analysts,architects,testers,andsoon,whoareperformingthework.Manydecisionsatthisscopeofcontrolinvolvestructuredorsemistructureddecisions.Heuristics,procedures,andalgorithmsaretypicallyavailabletoeitherdescribeindetailwhenandhowdecisionsshouldbemadeoratleasttoprovideguidelinestodecisionmaking.Inrarecases,whennewtechnologiesare
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