克鲁格曼国际经济学第六版的教师手册含英文习题答案imch16.docx

克鲁格曼国际经济学第六版的教师手册含英文习题答案imch16.docx

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克鲁格曼国际经济学第六版的教师手册含英文习题答案imch16

CHAPTER16

OutputandtheExchangeRateintheShortRun

ChapterOrganization

DeterminantsofAggregateDemandinanOpenEconomy

DeterminantsofConsumptionDemand

DeterminantsoftheCurrentAccount

HowRealExchangeRateChangesAffecttheCurrentAccount

HowDisposableIncomeChangesAffecttheCurrentAccount

TheEquationofAggregateDemand

TheRealExchangeRateandAggregateDemand

RealIncomeandAggregateDemand

HowOutputisDeterminedintheShortRun

OutputMarketEquilibriumintheShortRun:

TheDDSchedule

Output,theExchangeRate,andOutputMarketEquilibrium

DerivingtheDDSchedule

FactorsthatShifttheDDSchedule

AssetMarketEquilibriumintheShortRun:

TheAASchedule

Output,theExchangeRate,andAssetMarketEquilibrium

DerivingtheAASchedule

FactorsthatShifttheAASchedule

Short-RunEquilibriumfortheEconomy:

PuttingtheDDandAASchedulesTogether

TemporaryChangesinMonetaryandFiscalPolicy

MonetaryPolicy

FiscalPolicy

PoliciestoMaintainFullEmployment

InflationBiasandOtherProblemsofPolicyFormulation

PermanentShiftsinMonetaryandFiscalPolicy

APermanentIncreaseintheMoneySupply

AdjustmenttoaPermanentIncreaseintheMoneySupply

APermanentFiscalExpansion

Box:

TheDollarExchangeRateandtheU.S.EconomicSlowdownof2000-1

MacroeconomicPoliciesandtheCurrentAccount

GradualTradeAdjustmentandCurrentAccountDynamics

TheJ-Curve

Exchange-RatePass-ThroughandInflation

Summary

AppendixI:

TheIS-LMandtheDD-AAModel

AppendixII:

IntertemporalTradeandConsumptionDemand

AppendixIII:

TheMarshall-LernerConditionandEmpiricalEstimatesofTradeElasticities

ChapterOverview

Thischapterintegratesthepreviousanalysisofexchangeratedeterminationwithamodelofshort-runoutputdeterminationinanopeneconomy.ThemodelpresentedissimilarinspirittotheclassicMundell-Flemingmodel,butthediscussiongoesbeyondthestandardpresentationinitscontrastoftheeffectsoftemporaryversuspermanentpolicies.Thedistinctionbetweentemporaryandpermanentpoliciesallowsforananalysisofdynamicpathsofadjustmentratherthanjustcomparativestatics.ThisdynamicanalysisbringsinthepossibilityofaJ-curveresponseofthecurrentaccounttocurrencydepreciation.Thechapterconcludeswithadiscussionofexchange-ratepass-through,thatis,theresponseofimportpricestoexchangeratemovements.

Thechapterbeginswiththedevelopmentofanopen-economyfixed-pricemodel（AppendixIdiscusstherelationshipbetweentheIS-LMmodelandtheanalysisinthischapter）.AnaggregatedemandfunctionisderivedusingaKeynesian-crossdiagraminwhichtherealexchangerateservesasashiftparameter.Anominalcurrencydepreciationincreasesoutputbystimulatingexportsandreducingimports,givenforeignanddomesticprices,fiscalpolicy,andinvestmentlevels.Thisyieldsapositivelyslopedoutput-marketequilibrium（DD）scheduleinexchangerate-outputspace.Anegativelyslopedasset-marketequilibrium（AA）schedulecompletesthemodel.Thederivationofthisschedulefollowsfromtheanalysisofpreviouschapters.Forstudentswhohavealreadytakenintermediatemacroeconomics,youmaywanttopointoutthattheintuitionbehindtheslopeoftheAAcurveisidenticaltothatoftheLMcurve,withtheadditionalrelationshipofinterestparityprovidingthelinkbetweentheclosed-economyLMcurveandtheopen-economyAAcurve.AswiththeLMcurve,higherincomeincreasesmoneydemandandraisesthehome-currencyinterestrate（givenrealbalances）.Inanopeneconomy,higherinterestratesrequirecurrencyappreciationtosatisfyinterestparity（foragivenfutureexpectedexchangerate）.

Theeffectsoftemporarypoliciesaswellastheshort-runandlong-runeffectsofpermanentpoliciescanbestudiedinthecontextoftheDD-AAmodelifweidentifytheexpectedfutureexchangeratewiththelong-runexchangerateexaminedinChapters14and15.Inlinewiththisinterpretation,temporarypoliciesaredefinedtobethosewhichleavetheexpectedexchangerateunchanged,whilepermanentpoliciesarethosewhichmovetheexpectedexchangeratetoitsnewlong-runlevel.Asintheanalysisinearlierchapters,inthelong-runpriceschangetoclearmarkets（ifnecessary）.Whiletheassumptionsconcerningtheexpectationaleffectsoftemporaryandpermanentpoliciesareunrealisticasanexactdescriptionofaneconomy,theyarepedagogicallyusefulbecausetheyallowstudentstograsphowdifferingmarketexpectationsaboutthedurationofpoliciescanaltertheirqualitativeeffects.Studentsmayfindthedistinctionbetweentemporaryandpermanent,ontheonehand,andbetweenshortrunandlongrun,ontheother,abitconfusingatfirst.Itisprobablyworthwhiletospendafewminutesdiscussingthistopic.

Bothtemporaryandpermanentincreasesinmoneysupplyexpandoutputintheshortrunthroughexchangeratedepreciation.Thelong-runanalysisofapermanentmonetarychangeonceagainshowshowthewell-knownDornbuschovershootingresultcanoccur.Temporaryexpansionaryfiscalpolicyraisesoutputintheshortrunandcausestheexchangeratetoappreciate.Permanentfiscalexpansion,however,hasnoeffectonoutputevenintheshortrun.Thereasonforthisisthat,giventheassumptionsofthemodel,thecurrencyappreciationinresponsetopermanentfiscalexpansioncompletely"crowdsout"exports.Thisisaconsequenceoftheeffectofapermanentfiscalexpansionontheexpectedlong-runexchangeratewhichshiftsinwardtheasset-marketequilibriumcurve.ThismodelcanbeusedtoexplaintheconsequencesofU.S.fiscalandmonetarypolicybetween1979and1984.Themodelexplainstherecessionof1982andtheappreciationofthedollarasaresultoftightmonetaryandloosefiscalpolicy.

Thechapterconcludeswithsomediscussionofreal-worldmodificationsofthebasicmodel.Recentexperiencecastsdoubtonatight,unvaryingrelationshipbetweenmovementsinthenominalexchangerateandshiftsincompetitivenessandthusbetweennominalexchangeratemovementsandmovementsinthetradebalanceasdepictedintheDD-AAmodel.Exchange-ratepass-throughislessthancompleteandthusnominalexchangeratemovementsarenottranslatedone-for-oneintochangesintherealexchangerate.Also,thecurrentaccountmayworsenimmediatelyaftercurrencydepreciation.ThisJ-curveeffectoccursbecauseoftimelagsindeliveriesandbecauseoflowelasticitiesofdemandintheshortrunascomparedtothelongrun.Thechaptercontainsadiscussionofthewayinwhichtheanalysisofthemodelwouldbeaffectedbytheinclusionofincompleteexchange-ratepass-throughandtime-varyingelasticities.AppendixIIIprovidesfurtherinformationontradeelasticitieswithapresentationoftheMarshall-Lernerconditionsandareportingofestimatesoftheimpact,short-runandlong-runelasticitiesofdemandforinternationaltradeinmanufacturedgoodsforanumberofcountries.

AnswerstoTextbookProblems

1.Adeclineininvestmentdemanddecreasesthelevelofaggregatedemandforanyleveloftheexchangerate.Thus,adeclineininvestmentdemandcausestheDDcurvetoshifttotheleft.

2.Atariffisataxontheconsumptionofimports.Thedemandfordomesticgoods,andthusthelevelofaggregatedemand,willbehigherforanyleveloftheexchangerate.Thisisdepictedinfigure16-1asarightwardshiftintheoutputmarketschedulefromDDtoD'D'.Ifthetariffistemporary,thisistheonlyeffectandoutputwillriseeventhoughtheexchangerateappreciatesastheeconomymovesfrompoint0topoint1.Ifthetariffispermanent,however,thelong-runexpectedexchangerateappreciates,sotheassetmarketscheduleshiftstoA'A'.Theappreciationofthecurrencyissharperinthiscase.Ifoutputisinitiallyatfullemploymentthenthereisnochangeinoutputduetoapermanenttariff.

Figure16-1

3.Atemporaryfiscalpolicyshiftaffectsemploymentandoutput,evenifthegovernmentmaintainsabalancedbudget.Anintuitiveexplanationforthisreliesuponthedifferentpropensitiestoconsumeofthegovernmentandoftaxpayers.Ifthegovernmentspends$1moreandfinancesthisspendingbytaxingthepublic$1more,aggregatedemandwillhaverisenbecausethegovernmentspendstheentire$1whilethepublicreducesitsspendingbylessthan$1（choosingtoreduceitssavingaswellasitsconsumption）.Theultimateeffectonaggregatedemandisevenlargerthanthisfirstrounddifferencebetweengovernmentandpublicspendingpropensities,sincethefirstroundgeneratessubsequentspending（Ofcourse,currencyappreciationstillpreventspermanentfiscalshiftsfromaffectingoutputinourmodel.）

4.ApermanentfallinprivateaggregatedemandcausestheDDcurvetoshiftinwardandtotheleftand,becausetheexpectedfutureexchangeratedepreciates,theAAcurveshiftsoutwardandtotheright.Thesetwoshiftsresultinnoeffectonoutput,however,forthesamereasonthatapermanentfiscalexpansionhasnoeffectonoutput.Theneteffectisadepreciationinthenominalexchangerateand,becausepriceswillnotchange,acorrespondingrealexchangeratedepreciation.Amacroeconomicpolicyresponsetothiseventwouldnotbewarranted.

Figure16-2

5.Figure16-2canbeusedtoshowthatanypermanentfiscalexpansionworsensthecurrentaccount.Inthisdiagram,thescheduleXXrepresentscombinationsoftheexchangerateandincomeforwhichthecurrentaccountisinbalance.PointsaboveandtotheleftofXXrepresentcurrentaccountsurplusandpointsbelowandtotherightrepresentcurrentaccountdeficit.ApermanentfiscalexpansionshiftstheDD