美赛常用模型65123主成分分析.docx
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美赛常用模型65123主成分分析.docx
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美赛常用模型65123主成分分析
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SmartGrowthTheoriesinCityDesign
Summary
Withthedevelopmentofglobalurbanization,urbanplanninghasbeenahotspotofmostconcern.Sincethetraditionalurbansprawlplanhasbeengraduallyunabletomeetthedevelopmentneedsofthecity,smartgrowthisproposedin1990’s.Inthispaper,aseriesofmethodsaredevelopedtohelptoimplementsmartgrowththeoriesintocityde-sign.
Intask1,basedonthegatheredabundantdataaboutsmartgrowthofcity,25indi-catorsareselectedbyprincipalcomponentanalysis.Thenweconstructanewthree-levelindicatorsystem,wherethefirstlevelhas1indicator,thesecondlevelhas5indicatorsandthethirdlevelhas25indicatorstoevaluatethesuccessdegreeofthesmartgrowth.Moreover,weusetheentropyweightmethod(EWM)togetweightvectoroftheindica-torsinthethirdlevelandthegroupdecisionmakingmethod(GDM)togettheweightvectorofindicatorsinthesecond-class.Meanwhile,thestandardofthesuccessofthesmartgrowthisobtainedthroughK-meansalgorithm.Ametricsystemwhichincludetheintensityofland,socialequitydegree,trafficquality,coordinationdegreeandeconomicdevelopmentlevel,iseventuallybuilttomeasurethesuccessofsmartgrowthofacity.
Intask2,PittsburghandNingguoareselectedtoresearchtheircurrentgrowthplan.ThroughthemetricproposedinTask1,thestrengthsandweaknessesofthecurrentgrowthplanofselectedcitiesismeasured.
Intask3,oursmartgrowthplanisdevelopedbasedontheindexvalueofthecities.Thenthesupportvectormachine(SVM)andweightedmovingaveragemethod(WMAM)areadoptedtopredictthechangeofindicators.Thecombinedpredictionmodelissubse-quentlyadoptedtominimizethepredictionerror.Eventually,bycomparingtheindicatorbetweencurrentcityplanandoursmartgrowthplan,wecanseethesuccessofoursmartgrowthplan.
Intask4,thesingleeffectoftheindividualinitiativesisevaluatedbyourmetrictorankthepotential.TheresultshowsthatthemostpotentialtothesuccessdegreeofthesmartgrowthistheinitiativeoftheeconomicdevelopmentinNingguo,whileinPitts-burghistheinitiativeofimprovinglandintensiverate.
Intask5,sincethepopulationstructurebetweenthetwocitesisdifferent,twodif-ferentpopulationgrowthmodels(PGM)areadoptedtopredictthechangeofthepopula-tion.ThegrowthratecalculatedbyPGMdemonstratesthatourplancanadjustadaptivelytosatisfiedtheincreasingneedofpopulation.
Finally,weanalyzethestrengthsandweaknessesofthemethodsweproposedinthispaper.TheresearchcanalsosatisfytheneedoftheICMandmakereasonablegrowththeoriesintocitydesign.
Contents
1Introduction3
1.1Background3
1.2ProblemStatementandAnalysis3
2.AssumptionandSymbolExplanation4
2.1Assumption4
2.2SymbolExplanation4
3.Task14
3.1DataPre-processing4
3.2PrimaryIndicatorSystem5
3.3WeightingModelsofEvaluationIndicators7
3.4ComprehensiveEvaluationIndex10
3.5MetricofSmartGrowth12
4Task213
4.1GrowthPlanofSelectedCities13
4.2CityIndexEvaluation14
4.3AnalysisofCurrentGrowthPlan14
5Task314
5.1OurSmartGrowthPlan(SGP)14
5.2ThePredictionModelsforEvaluation15
5.3TheEvaluationofOurSmartGrowthPlan16
6Task417
6.1RankingtheIndividualInitiatives17
6.2ComparingtheInitiativesofTwoCities18
7Task518
7.1TheAdaptablePlanForPittsburgh19
7.2TheAdaptablePlanForNingguo19
8.SensitivityAnalysis20
9.StrengthsandWeaknesses21
9.1Strengths21
9.2Weaknesses21
References21
Appendix22
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1Introduction
1.1Background
Inrecentyears,urbanizationhasbecomeaninevitabletrend.Ithasbeenpredictedthatby2050,about66percentoftheworld'spopulationwillbeaddedtothecity.[1]Consequently,formulatingsuitableurbanplanshavebecomeaconcernofgovernments.Atanearliertime,somecitieschose‘urbansprawl’strategy,namely,justlikestandingpancake.Urbansprawlisaspecialformofsuburbanization.Itincludesthemarginalexpansionoftheexistingurbanizationareaswithverylowpopulationdensity,occupy-inglandthathasneverbeendeveloped.Gradually,manyproblemswereexposedwhenurbansprawlwascarriedout,suchasenvironmentalpollution,thelandinexcesscon-sumption,High-costinfrastructureconstruction,etc.
Inviewofthoseproblems,theconceptofsmartgrowthwasproposedbyGeoffAllderson.Tenprinciplesforsmartgrowthareproposedsubsequentlyin[2].SGisameanstocurbcontinuedurbansprawlandreducethelossoffarmlandsurroundingur-bancenters.Itwillmakethetownorcityapproachamoreeconomicallyprosperous,sociallyequitable,andenvironmentallysustainableplace.
1.2ProblemStatementandAnalysis
Sincesmartgrowthisessentialtourbanconstruction,itissignificanttoproposeanefficientmethodtogiveplanstomeettheprincipleforsmartgrowthinthisproblem.Therefore,indexsystemisneededtoevaluatethesuccessofsmartgrowthofacityfirstly.Twospecificcitiesareselectedtoevaluatetheeffectoftheirgrowthplansthroughindexsystem.Thenwehavetoproposefeasibleplanstohelpthegrowthofourselectedcities.Tomeasurethesuccessofourplans,theindexsystemisneededinasecondtime.Moreover,thepotentialoftheindividualinitiativesshouldberankedinthisproblem.Eventually,weneedtoexplaininwhatwaysourplansupportsthislevelofgrowthifthepopulationwillincreasebyanadditional50%by2050.
Throughtheaboveanalysis,theflowchartofthispaperisshowninfig.1asfel-lows.
Fig.1Theflowchartinthispaper
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2.AssumptionandSymbolExplanation
2.1Assumption
lThegovernmentpolicywillnotchangeintheshortterm.
lThedatasourceisactualandreliable.
lNeglecttheexplosivechangeswhenforecastingoverthefewdecades.
lScorematrixgivenbyexpertsisnotaffectedbysubjectivefactors.
2.2SymbolExplanation
Symbol
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Definition
thesuccessdegreeofsmartgrowthofacity
Theintensityofland
Thesocialequitydegree
Theeconomicdevelopmentlevel
Thetrafficquality
Thecoordinationdegree
thesumofsquaresofthedistancesfromthesortcenterTheweightofthei-thsecondaryindicator
3.Task1
3.1DataPre-processing
3.1.1DataCollection
Collectingsufficientdataisthebasisofdevelopingacompleteindexsystem.Wesearchedthedatabaseandfound88indicatorsoftwocitiesfirstly.ThedataofPitts-burghinPaisfromcitydata1andthedataofNingguowhichislocatedinAnhui,Chi-naarefromNationalBureauofStatisticsofthePeople'sRepublicofChina2.Thenwesearchedthedataofthetencitieswhichisusedtosetstandardsbyclustering.
3.1.2DataFilling
Theavailabilityofdataisanessentialissue.Nomeasures,regardlessofitsvalue,canprovideefficientassessmentsifbasedonunreliableoruntruthfuldata.Consequent-ly,itisessentialtoensurethecontinuityandauthenticityoftheresearchdata.Never-theless,somedataismissingbecausenotalldataisprovidedinthewebsite.
Toamelioratethissituation,fourmethodsareproposedtocompletethedata,whichareasfollows,
lIftheindicatorvaluesaresmooth,previousdatacanbeadoptedtoreplaceit.
lIfthedatabeforeandaftercanbeobtained,theaveragevaluecanbetakenasthemissing.
lIftwogroupsaresimilar,thenthemissingdatainonegroupcanbereplacedbythevalueofthesamelocationintheothergroup.
1http:
//www.city-
2
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lTheinterpolationmethodisusedindatafitting.
3.2PrimaryIndicatorSystem
3.2.1SelectprimaryindicatorsbyPCA
88initialindicatorsareselectedfirstlytorepresentthesmartgrowthofcities.Be-causethereareagreatdealofindicatorsrelatedtosmartgrowth,themethodofPCA(PrincipalComponentAnalysis)isadoptedtoreducethenumberofprimaryindicators.Theselectionoftheinitial88indicatorsforsmartgrowthisbasedon3E’sprinciplesand10principles.
3E’sprinciplesreferstoEconomicallyprosperous(EP),sociallyEquitable(SEQ),andEnvironmentallysustainable(ESU).Namely,keepeconomysustainedandsteady,guaranteetherighttofairandensureenvironmentalprotectionifthegovernmentadoptsmartgrowthstrategy.
Sincethesmartgrowthwaspresentedin1990’s,thetenprinciplesforsmartgrowth(SGP)havebeenproposed[2].TheSGPisalsoadoptedasreferenceprinciplesinourindexselection.TheSGPismainlyasfollows:
(1)Mixlanduses.
(2)Takeadvantageofcompactbuildingdesign.
(3)Createarangeofhousingopportunitiesandchoices.
(4)Createwalkableneighborhoods.
(5)Fosterdistinctive,attractivecommunitieswithastrongsenseofplace.
(6)Keepopenspace,farmland,naturalbeauty,andcriticalenvironmentalareas.
(7)Strengthenanddirectdevelopmenttowardsexistingcommunities.
(8)Provideavarietyoftransportationchoices.
(9)Makedevelopmentdecisionspredictable,fair,andcosteffective.
(10)Encouragecommunityandstakeholdercollaborationindevelopmentdeci-
sions.
Fromtheaforementionedselections,theinitialselectionoftheprimaryindicatorsisselected.ThenthemethodofPCAisadoptedtoreducethenumberoftheindicator.Eventually,25indicatorsareobtainedasourprimaryindicators.PrimaryindicatorsareshownasinTab.1.
Tab.1Frameworkofsustainabi
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