How to Make Decisions.docx
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How to Make Decisions.docx
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HowtoMakeDecisions
HowtoMakeDecisions:
Coherence,Emotion,andPracticalInference
PaulThagard
PhilosophyDepartment
UniversityofWaterloo
pthagard@uwaterloo.ca
Thagard,P.(2001).Howtomakedecisions:
Coherence,emotion,andpracticalinference.InE.Millgram(Ed.),Varietiesofpracticalinference.Cambridge,MA:
MITPress.355-371.
Studentsfacemanyimportantdecisions:
WhatcollegeoruniversityshouldIattend?
WhatshouldIstudy?
WhatkindofjobshouldItrytoget?
WhichpeopleshouldIhangoutwith?
ShouldIcontinueorbreakoffarelationship?
ShouldIgetmarried?
ShouldIhaveababy?
WhatkindofmedicaltreatmentshouldIuse?
Atheoryofpracticalreasoningshouldhavesomethingtosayabouthowstudentsandotherpeoplecanimprovetheirdecisionmaking.
Iregularlyteachafirst-yearcourseoncriticalthinkingintendedtohelpstudentsimprovetheirreasoningaboutwhattobelieveandaboutwhattodo.Afterspendingabouttwothirdsofthecourseonwaysofimprovingjudgmentsaboutthetruthandfalsityofcontroversialclaimsinareassuchasmedicineandpseudoscience,Idevotethelastthirdtopracticalreasoning,withthefocusonhowpeoplecanmakebetterdecisions.Idiscussboththekindsoferroneousreasoningthatdecisionmakerscommonlyfallinto,andsomesystematicmodelsthathavebeenproposedbypsychologists,economists,andphilosopherstospecifyhowpeopleshouldmakedecisions.
Manystudentsinthecoursedislikethesemodels,andresisttheclaimthatusingthemispreferabletomakingdecisionssimplybyintuition.Theytrusttheir"gutfeelings"morethantheytrusttheanalyticalmethodsthatrequireasystematicandmathematicalcomparativeassessmentofcompetingactionsthatsatisfymultiplecriteria.ThetextbooksIuse(mostrecentlyGilovich1991,RussoandSchoemaker1989,SchickandVaughn1999)encouragepeopletoavoidtheuseofintuitionandinsteadtobasetheirjudgmentsanddecisionsonreasoningstrategiesthatarelesslikelytoleadtocommonerrorsinreasoning.Fromthisperspective,decisionmakingshouldbeamatterofcalculation,notintuition.
WhileIagreethatintuition-baseddecisionmakingcanleadtomanyproblems,Ialsothinkthatcalculation-baseddecisionmakingofthesortrecommendedbypsychologistsandeconomistshassomeseriouspitfalls.Inthischapter,Iwilltrytoofferasynthesisandpartialreconciliationofintuitionandcalculationmodelsofdecision,usingarecentlydevelopedtheoryofemotionalcoherence(Thagardinpress).Thistheorybuildsonapreviouscoherence-basedtheoryofdecisionmakingdevelopedincollaborationwithElijahMillgram.Understandingdecisionmakingintermsofemotionalcoherenceenablesustoappreciatethemeritsofbothintuitionandcalculationascontributorstoeffectivepracticalreasoning.
DecisionasIntuition
Supposeyouareastudenttryingtodecidewhethertostudy
(1)anArtssubjectsuchasphilosophyorarthistoryinwhichyouhaveastronginterestor
(2)asubjectsuchaseconomicsorcomputersciencewhichmayleadtoamorelucrativecareer.Tomakethisdecisionintuitivelyisjusttogowiththeoptionthatissupportedbyyouremotionalreactionstothetwoalternatives.Youmayhaveastronglypositivegutfeelingtowardthemoreinterestingsubjectalongwithastronglynegativefeelingaboutthemorecareer-orientedone,oryourfeelingsmaybejusttheopposite.Morelikelyisthatyoufeelpositivefeelingstowardbothalternatives,alongwithaccompanyinganxietycausedbyyourinabilitytoseeaclearlypreferableoption.Intheend,intuitivedecisionmakerschooseanoptionbasedonwhattheiremotionalreactionstellthemispreferable.
Thereismuchtobesaidforintuitivedecisionmaking.Oneobviousadvantageisspeed:
anemotionalreactioncanbeimmediateandleaddirectlytoadecision.Ifyourchoiceisbetweenchocolateandvanillaicecream,itwouldbepointlesstospendalotoftimeandeffortdeliberatingabouttherelativeadvantagesanddisadvantagesofthetwoflavors.Instead,anemotionalreactionsuchas"chocolateyum!
"canmakeforaquickandappropriatedecision.Anotheradvantageisthatbasingyourdecisionsonemotionshelpstoensurethatthedecisionstakeintoaccountwhatyoureallycareabout.Ifyouarepleasedandexcitedaboutapossibleaction,thatisagoodsignthattheactionpromisestoaccomplishthegoalsthataregenuinelyimportanttoyou.Finally,decisionsbasedonemotionalintuitionsleaddirectlytoaction:
thepositivefeelingtowardanoptionwillmotivateyoutocarryitout.
Butemotion-basedintuitivedecisionmakingcanalsohavesomeseriousdisadvantages.Anoptionmayseememotionallyappealingbecauseoffailuretoconsiderotheravailableoptions.Intuitionmaysuggestbuyingchocolateicecreamonlybecauseyouhavefailedtoconsideralower-fatalternativethatwouldbeahealthierchoice.Intuitionisalsosubjecttotheintensecravingthatdrugaddictscall"jonesing".Ifyouarejonesingforcocaine,orforapizza,orforaMercedes-Benzconvertible,yourintuitionwilltellyoutochoosewhatyoucrave,butonlybecausethecravinghasemotionallyswampedotherdesiresthatyouwillbemoreawareofwhenthecravingislessintense.
Anotherproblemwithintuitionisthatitmaybebasedoninaccurateorirrelevantinformation.Supposeyouneedtodecidewhomtohireforajob.Ifyouareprejudicedagainstpeopleofaparticularsex,race,orethnicity,thenyourintuitionwilltellyounottohirethem,eveniftheyhavebetterqualificationsfordoingthejobwell.Itisdifficulttodetermineintrospectivelywhetheryourintuitionsderivefromreliableandrelevantinformation.
Finally,intuitivereasoningisproblematicingroupsituationswheredecisionsneedtobemadecollectively.Ifotherpeopledisagreewithyourchoices,youcannotsimplycontendthatyourintuitionsarestrongerorbetterthantheintuitionsofothers.Defendingyouremotionalreactionsandattemptingtoreachaconsensuswithotherpeoplerequiresamoreanalyticalapproachthansimplyexpressingyourgutfeelings.
DecisionasCalculation
Expertsondecisionmakingrecommendamoresystematicandcalculatingapproach.Forexample,Bazerman(1994,p.4)saysthatrationaldecisionmakingshouldincludethefollowingsixsteps:
1.Definetheproblem,characterizingthegeneralpurposeofyourdecision.
2.Identifythecriteria,specifyingthegoalsorobjectivesthatyouwanttobeabletoaccomplish.
3.Weightthecriteria,decidingtherelativeimportanceofthegoals.
4.Generatealternatives,identifyingpossiblecoursesofactionthatmightaccomplishyourvariousgoals.
5.Rateeachalternativeoneachcriterion,assessingtheextenttowhicheachactionwouldaccomplisheachgoal.
6.Computetheoptimaldecision,evaluatingeachalternativebymultiplyingtheexpectedeffectivenessofeachalternativewithrespecttoacriteriontimestheweightofthecriterion,thenaddinguptheexpectedvalueofthealternativewithrespecttoallcriteria.
Wecanthenpickthealternativewiththehighestexpectedvalueandmakeadecisionbasedoncalculation,notonsubjectiveemotionalreactions.Usingslightlydifferentterminology,RussoandShoemaker(1989,ch.6)recommendessentiallythesamekindofdecisionmakingprocessbasedonmultipleweightedfactors.
Somestudentsdismissthiskindofprocessasrobot-like,andfinditoffensivethatimportantdecisionsintheirlivesmightbemademathematically.AcartoonintheNewYorker(Jan.10,2000,p.74)showsamansittingatacomputerandsayingtoawoman:
"I'vedonethenumbers,andIwillmarryyou."Somedecisions,atleast,seeminappropriatelybasedondoingthenumbers.ButistheemotionaldismissalofBazerman's6-stepcalculationmethodjustified?
Wecancertainlyseesomenotableadvantagesofthecalculationmethodovertheintuitionmethod.First,itissetuptoavoidneglectingrelevantalternativesandgoals.Second,itmakesexplicittheconsiderationofhowthevariousalternativescontributetothevariousgoals.Third,itputsthedecisionmakingprocessoutintheopen,enablingittobecarefullyreviewedbyaparticulardecisionmakerandalsobyothersinvolvedinagroupdecisionprocess.
However,thecalculationmethodofdecisionmakingmaybemoredifficultandlesseffectivethandecisionexpertsclaim.Supposeyouaretryingtodecidebetweentwocoursesofstudy,sayphilosophyversuscomputerscience,andyousystematicallylistalltherelevantcriteriasuchashowinterestingyoufindthesubjectsandhowwelltheyfitwithyourcareerplans.Youthenweightthecriteriaandestimatetheextenttowhicheachoptionsatisfiesthem,andproceedtoacalculationoftheexpectedvalueofthecompetingchoices.Havingdonethis,youfindthattheexpectedvalueofoneoption,sayphilosophy,exceedsthatoftheother.Butwhatifyouthenhavethereaction"Idon'twanttodothat!
"Youremotionalreactionneednotbecrazy,becauseitmaybethatthenumericalweightsthatyouputonyourcriteriadonotreflectwhatyoureallycareabout.Moreover,yourestimatesabouttheextenttowhichdifferentactionsaccomplishyourgoalsmaybeverysubjectiveandfluid,sothatyourunconsciousestimationisatleastasgoodasyourconsciousone.Ionceknewsomeonewhotoldmethatshemadedecisionsbyfirstflippingacoin,withheadsforoneoptionandtailsforanother.Whenthecoincameupheads,shewouldnoteheremotionalreaction,whichgaveherabetterideaofwhethershereallywantedtheoptionassociatedwithheads.Shethenusedthisemotionalinformationtohelphermakeachoicebetweenthetwooptions.
Thereisempiricaleviden
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