经济结构决定金融结构外文文献翻译中英文最新.docx
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经济结构决定金融结构外文文献翻译中英文最新.docx
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经济结构决定金融结构外文文献翻译中英文最新
经济结构决定金融结构外文文献翻译中英文2019-2020
英文
Doeseconomicstructuredeterminefinancialstructure?
FranklinAllen,LauraBartiloro
Abstract
Inthispaper,weexaminetherelationshipbetweenthestructureoftherealeconomyandacountry'sfinancialsystem.Weconsiderwhetherthedevelopmentoftherealeconomicstructurecanpredictthedirectionofevolutionofacountry'sfinancialstructure.Usingdatafor108countries,wefindasignificantrelationshipbetweenrealeconomicstructureandfinancialstructure.Next,weexploitshockstotheeconomiesinIndia,FinlandandSweden,andSouthKoreaandshowthatchangesintheeconomicstructureofacountryinfluencetheevolutionofitsfinancialsystem.Thissuggeststhatfinancialinstitutionsandcapitalmarketschangeinresponsetothestructureofindustries.
Keywords:
Financialsystem,Economicstructure
Introduction
Thestructuresoffinancialsystemsvaryamongindustrialanddevelopingcountries.Insomecountries,financialsystemsarepredominantlybank-based,whileinotherstheyaredominatedbycapitalmarkets.Onlyfragmentedtheoriesexistintheliteraturethatexplaintheprevailingdifferencesincountryfinancialstructures,whicharedefinedasthemixoffinancialmarkets,institutions,instruments,andcontractsthatprescribehowfinancialactivitiesareorganizedataparticulardate.
Theexistingstudiesexplaintheprevailingdifferencesinfinancialstructuresusinglegaloriginandprotection,politics,history,andcultureasfactors.Thispaperconsidersthelinkbetweentherealeconomicstructureandthefinancialsystemofacountry.Sucharelationshipisinfluencedbythefundingsourcesforcorporateinvestmentthatdifferdependingonfirmandprojectcharacteristics(Allen,1993; BootandThakor,1997; AllenandGale,1999).Consistentwiththistheory,banksaremoreappropriateforthefinancingoftraditionalasset-intensiveindustries,whereascapitalmarketsfavourinnovativeandriskyprojects.Oneimplicationofthistheoryisthattherealeconomicstructureofacountry,whetheritisassetintensiveorserviceoriented,coulddetermineitsfinancialstructure.Forinstance,financialsystemsincountriessuchasGermanyandJapanwouldremainbank-basedaslongastheireconomiesaredominatedbymanufacturingindustries.Contrastingly,thefinancialsystemintheUnitedStateswillcontinuetobemarket-orientedaslongasserviceandhighlyinnovativecompaniesconstitutealargeshareoftheeconomy.Consequently,thefinancialsystemsoftheUnitedStates,Germany,orJapanwillremainatpolarextremesbecauseoftheireconomicstructureseventhoughthecountriesareatasimilarstageofdevelopment.
Robinson(1952) arguesthatfinancialintermediariesandmarketsemergewhenrequiredbyindustries.Consequently,intermediariesandmarketsappearinresponsetoeconomicstructure.Theideathattheformoffinancing,andthusthecountry'sfinancialstructure,dependsonthetypeofactivitythatfirmsengageinhasnotyetbeendirectlyaddressedintheliterature.Toprovideevidenceofthehypothesisthatstructureandchangesintherealeconomydeterminethedirectionofevolutionofacountry'sfinancialsystem,wefirstmustdistinguishthedifferentfinancialstructuresacrosscountries.However,althoughrecentattentionhasshiftedtoamoresystematicclassificationoffinancialsystems,theliteratureprovidesonlyverybroadmeasuresanddefinitionsforclassification.Consistentwiththeliteraturethisstudyclassifiesacountry'sfinancialsystemaseitherbank-based(theGermanorJapanesemodel)ormarket-based(theAnglo-Saxonmodel).Inthebank-basedfinancialsystem,financialintermediariesplayanimportantrolebymobilisingsavings,allocatingcredit,andfacilitatingthehedging,pooling,andpricingofrisks.Inthemarket-basedfinancialsystem,capitalmarketsarethemainchannelsoffinanceintheeconomy(AllenandGale,2000).
Ourtheorybuildson RajanandZingales(2003a) whonotethatbank-basedsystemstendtohaveacomparativeadvantageinfinancingfixed-asset-intensivefirmsratherthanhightechnologyresearchanddevelopment-basedfirms. RajanandZingales(2003a) arguethatfixed-asset-intensivefirmsaretypicallymoretraditionalandwellunderstood,andtheborrowerhasthecollateraltoenticefreshlendersiftheexistingonesproveoverlydemanding.Asper RajanandZingales(2003a),loansarewellcollateralisedbyphysicalassets,andthereforeareliquid;hence,theconcentrationofinformationinthesystemwillnotbeabarriertothefinancingoftheseassets.Conversely,theauthorsarguethatmarket-basedsystemswillhaveacomparativeadvantageinfinancingknowledgeindustrieswith intangibleassets.
Consequently,wesuggestthatcountrieswithamajorityofphysical-asset-intensivefirms,dependingonexternalfinance,willbemorelikelytopossessabank-orientedfinancialsystem.However,capitalmarketsshoulddevelopmoreeffectivelyincountrieswithfirmsthatarebasedonknowledgeandintangibleassets.Wetestthishypothesisbyidentifyingfixed-asset-intensivefirmswithintheeconomicsectordefinedasindustrybythestandardclassificationsystemforeconomicactivity.Conversely,inthisstudytheservicesectoractsasaproxyforknowledgeandintangibleassetfirms.Therelativeimportanceofthetwotypesoffirmsinaneconomywillberepresentedbytherelativevolumeofactivityofthetwodifferenteconomicsectors.Thestandardsystemofclassificationforeconomicactivityincludesathirdsector,agriculture.Weclassifyagricultureasaphysical-asset-intensiveindustrybecauselandandagriculturalmachinerymaybeusedascollateraland,therefore,weassumethatfirmsintheagriculturalsectorwillpreferbankfinancingovercapitalmarkets.
Wefirstpresentsomehistoricalevidenceshowingthenexusbetweenrealeconomicstructureandfinancialsystem.Inordertotestouroutlinedhypothesis,weuseapaneldatasetfor108countriesandemployboththepanelOLSandatwo-step generalised-method-of-moments (GMM)system.Additionally,weinvestigatetherobustnessoftheresultsbyintroducingdifferentadditionalcontrolvariablesandtestingtheheterogenouseffects.Theresultssuggestthatthereisanegativeandsignificantrelationshipbetweenacountry'seconomicstructure(industryversusservicesector)andfinancialsystemstructure(stockmarketversusbankingsector).Ineconomieswheretheservicesectorcarriesmoreweighteconomicallythanindustryandagriculture,thecountrytendstohaveamarket-basedfinancialsystem.Incontrast,abank-basedfinancialsystemismorelikelytoemergeineconomieswithmanyfixed-asset-intensivefirms.
Next,weconducteventstudiesusingthe treatmenteffect estimationtoisolatetheendogeneityconcerns.Weanalysedifferenttypesofexogenousshocktothestructureoftherealeconomyanditsimpactonfinancialstructure.Weemploythreeeventsthatchangedtheeconomicstructuresofthecountriesandfurtherinvestigatetheirimpactonthefinancialstructureusinga difference-in-difference strategy.ThefirsteventisIndia'sstructuralreformsin1991asapositiveshocktothecountry'seconomy;thesecondoneisthedemiseoftheSovietUnionasanegativeshocktotheeconomyofFinlandandSweden;thethirdoneistheeconomicreformsinthe1980sandearly1990sinSouthKorea.InIndiaandSouthKoreawefindthatafterthestructuralreformsoftheeconomies,theservicesectorgrewinrelativetermsandthestockmarketsinbothcountriesexperiencedsignificantlyfastergrowththantheirbankingsystems,comparedtothecontrolcountries.InFinlandandSwedenwedocumentthatfollowingthenegativeshocktheservicesectorgainedinrelativeimportance,whichwasfollowedbythefastergrowthoftheequitymarketincomparisontothebankingsystem.Overall,theresultsofthethreedifferenteventstudiesconfirmourhypothesisthattherelativeimportanceoffinancialintermediariesandmarketsisdeterminedbytheindustryneedsofacountry.
Thefindingsofthisstudyareinterestingfromaregulatoryperspectiveandlendinsightintothedevelopmentoffinancialstructuresworldwide.Themainpolicyimplicationsfromthisstudyarethatfinancialstructuresshouldbeevaluatedintermsofwhethertheymeettherequirementsoftherealeconomyandindustries.Furthermorethefinancialstructurecannotbechangedaslongastheeconomicstructuredoesnotchange.Theresultsprovideinsightintothereasonsforlimitedcapitalmarketsgrowthindevelopingcountriesdespiteofficialstimulationeffortsfromgovernmentsandmultilateralorganisations(Schmukleretal.,2007).Accordingtoourstudyofmanydevelopingcountries,aslongaseconomiesremainrelativelyagriculture-andindustry-oriented,anygovernmentefforttocreateorfurtherdevelopacapitalmarketislikelytonottobeverysuccessful.Additionally,anyregulationthatattemptstoforceachangeinthefinancialsystemmayresultinadiscrepancyintheeconomicandfinancialstructure.Therefore,sucheffortsorregulationsmayintroducefinancialconstraintsthatcanfurtherstalleconomicgrowthbecausefinancialstructureinfluencesoutputlevelsandeconomicgrowth(LevineandZervos,1998; Luinteletal.,2008).
Therealeconomyandfinancenexus
Anumberofexplanationsforfinancialstructureexistintheliterature;however,noneareabletoprovideacomprehensiveaccountoftheobservations.Thefirstexplanationisbasedonlegaloriginandinvestorprotection. Levine(1997) buildsontheworkof LaPortaetal.(1997, 1998);henceforthLLSV)statingthatlegalsystemsoriginatefromalimitednumberoflegaltraditions:
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