A Factor Decomposition on Chinas Carbon Emission from 1997 toBased on IPATLMDI Model.docx
- 文档编号:3443027
- 上传时间:2022-11-23
- 格式:DOCX
- 页数:32
- 大小:719.85KB
A Factor Decomposition on Chinas Carbon Emission from 1997 toBased on IPATLMDI Model.docx
《A Factor Decomposition on Chinas Carbon Emission from 1997 toBased on IPATLMDI Model.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《A Factor Decomposition on Chinas Carbon Emission from 1997 toBased on IPATLMDI Model.docx(32页珍藏版)》请在冰豆网上搜索。
AFactorDecompositiononChinasCarbonEmissionfrom1997toBasedonIPATLMDIModel
AFactorDecompositiononChina’sCarbonEmissionfrom1997to2012—BasedonIPAT-LMDIModel
WeiLi1,*,Ya-BoShen1,Hui-XiaZhang1
1DepartmentofEconomicManagement,NorthChinaElectricPowerUniversity,Address:
No.689HuadianRoad,BaodingCity,071003China;E-Mail:
ncepulw@
*Address:
No.689HuadianRoad,BaodingCity,071003China;E-Mail:
ncepulw@
Abstract:
Inthispaper,weprobeintothekeyfactorsthatpossesssignificanteffectsonChina’sCO2emissionsduring1997-2012onthebasisofIPAT-LMDImodel.CarbondioxideemissionsarespecificallydecomposedintoCO2emissionsintensity,energystructure,energyintensity,industrialstructure,economicoutputandpopulationscaleeffects.ResultsindicatethattheparamountdrivingfactorsresultedinthegrowthofCO2emissionsiseconomicoutput,followedbypopulationscaleandenergystructure.Incontrast,energyintensityandindustrialstructuregenerallyplayanoutstandingroleinreducingemissions.Thispaperconstructsanewweightassessmentsystembyintroducing“contributionvalue-significantfactor-effectcoefficient”toreplace“contributionvalue-contributionrate”inthepreviousliterature.Accordingtothemostsignificantpositiveeffectandthemostnegativeeffectfromtheconclusion,wepointouteffectivepoliciesthatcannotonlyacceleratethetargetof“China’scarbonemissionsperunitofGDPcouldcutdownby40-45%by2020,from2005levels”,buthavecrucialsignificanceonthelowcarboneconomicdevelopmentstrategyofChina.
Keywords:
IPAT-LMDImodel;Carbonemissions;Influentialfactors;Contributionvalue-significantfactor-effectcoefficient;lowcarboneconomy
1Introduction
Nowadays,theworldeconomyisinaperiodoftransitiontoalowcarboneconomy,whileChinaisfacingastagewheretherapiddevelopmentofindustrializationandurbanization.EconomicgrowthgivesrisetotheaugmentofenergyconsumptionandCO2emissions[1].Chinaisthelargestdevelopingcountryintheworldwiththerapideconomicdevelopment.China’sGDPhasincreased(from7225.34to29533.57billionYuan)sharplyataverageannualrateof9.84%,thepercapitaGDPhasincreased(from5873.91to21865.47Yuan)dramaticallyataverageannualrateof9.16%[2].ThetotalGDPhasrunupto5878.61billiondollarsby2010exceedingJapan,turningintothesecondlargesteconomyintheworld.Atthesametime,China’sprimaryenergyconsumptionraisedsharplyfrom1.38to3.62billiontoncoalequivalents(tec)during1997-2012[2].Withthepersistentfocusonclimatechangefromallcountriesintheworld,carbonemissionshavecapturedgrowingattentionofourgovernment.China’scarbonemissionskeeponrisingfleetlywithrelevantenergyconsumptionlevel,from3528.02milliontonsin1997to9774.47milliontonsin2012.China’senergy-relatedcarbonemissionshavereached7.03billiontonsby2008,surpassingtheUnitedStatestobecometheworld’slargestemitterforthefirsttime.ThatmakesChina’sinternationalpressureincreaseinresponsetoclimatechangeissues.Chinapossessesanambitiousgoaltoreducecarbonemissionsintensityby40%-45%ofthe2005levelby2020.CarbonemissionswillconstraintChina’senergyconsumptionintheprocessoftheincreasedeconomy.
TheIPATidentitywasfirstproposedbyProfessorsEhrlichandHoldrentodepicttheinfluenceontheenvironmentofgrowingpopulation[3,4].NakicenovicusedareformulationofthisIPATidentityknownastheKayaequationtobethebasisfortheGHGemissionscalculations,projectionsandscenariosconductedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange[5].Twomainmethodsareusedfordecompositionofcarbonemissionfactors:
structuraldecompositionanalysis(SDA)andindexdecompositionanalysis(IDA) [6,7].Inrecentyears,manyscholarshavedonemultituderesearchoncarbonemissionswiththeSDAandtheyfoundahostofpracticalsignificantconclusions[8-11].AngandZhangputforwardthelogmeanDivisiaindexinthefirstplace[12].ThelogmeanDivisiaindex(LMDI)cannotonlybeusedtodecomposemultiplefactorswithzeroresidualerrors,butsolvetheproblemofinsufficientdata.Withthismethod,carbonemissionscanberesolvedquantitativelyintoseveraleffects[13,14].AngandWangetal.cametotheconclusionbyusingtheLMDImethodthateconomicgrowthisaleadingcauseofcarbonemissionsandenergyintensityisseenasessentialeffectifChina’scarbonemissionsarelookedforwardtobeingreducedoverthelongterm[15,16].Chunbo,TuncandClaudiaexplainedtheprimaryelementaffectingthechangeofChina’scarbonemissions.Turkey,andMexicoappliedtheLMDIapproachtothedecomposecarbonemissions[17-19].PaulandBhattacharyapointedoutthatenergyintensity,industrialstructure,thechangeofGDPandemissionsfromseveraltypesoffossilfuelswerefoureffectsaffectingcarbonemissionsinIndia[20].SunworkedoutwheredifferencesofcarbonemissionsintensitybetweenSwedenandFinlandfrom[21].Choietal.usedtheindexdecompositionmethodstoanalyzecarbonemissionsfromenergyconsumption[22].FactorsofcarbonemissioninTurkeyweredecomposedbyIpekTunçetal.intoeconomicgrowtheffect,industrialstructureeffect,energysourceseffect,energyefficiencyeffectandcarbonemissioncoefficienteffect[23].ItisalsosuitabletostudyChina’senergy-relatedcarbonemissionbyapplyingthecompleteddecompositiontechnique[24–29].Li,W.andQ.-X.OuanalyzedtheinfluencefactorsofcarbonemissionintensityinChinaduring1995-2010byusingthemodifiedLMDI(Kaya)modelandobtainedthatthemostcrucialnegativefactoraffectingcarbonemissionsintensitywasenergyintensityeffect[30].Liuetal.madethedecompositiononcarbonemissionfactorsfor36Chineseindustrialsectorsfrom1998to2005bytheLMDImethodandreachedthatenergyintensitywasthetop-drawerfactorleadingtocarbonemissionschanges[31].Xu,S.-C.,etalresearchedfactorsaffectingcarbonemissionsduring1995-2011byusingLMDItheoryandfoundthattheenergyintensitywasthemostparamountinhibitoryfactor[32].Weietal.andWuetal.pointedtothemostsignificantconclusiononsomegeneralinformationforcarbonemissionsandthefundamentaldrivingfactors[33,34].Previousstudieshavedemonstratedthatenergy-relatedcarbonemissionsinChinaincreasedsignificantlyintheliterature.Forexample,thegrowthofcementoutputlargelypromotestheenergyconsumptionleadingtotheincreaseofcarbonemissionsinthecementindustry.Coalproductshavebeenthedominantfuelforthermalpowergenerationandtheeconomicactivityeffectisthemajordrivingforceincarbonemissionsinelectricity.Residentialenergyconsumption(REC)istheChina’ssecond-largestenergyusecategory.China’spricereforminthefieldofenergyplaysakeyroleinreducingREC.Besides,thereisbidirectionalcausalitybetweencarbonemissionsandenergyconsumptionbasedonthepaneldata,sodoenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.Accordingtothestudies,someimportantpoliciesoftheempiricalresultshavebeenputforwardintheliterature.Incontrast,fewstudiesdepictthefactorsaffectingcarbonemissionsfromdifferentindustriesanddifferentspeciesofenergywithdata.
ThisstudyanalyzedtheinfluencingfactorsofCO2emissionsfromeightkindsofenergy(coal,coke,crudeoil,gasoline,kerosene,dieseloil,fueloil,naturalgas)ineightindustriessectors(excavation;manufacturing;electricpower,gas,andwaterproductionandsupply;agriculture;construction;transportation,storage,andpostalservices;wholesale,retailtrade,andfoodservices;othersectors).ItismoreaccuratetodecomposeCO2emissionsineverysingleindustryaccordingtothesegmentationofcarbondioxideemissioncoefficient.ThenweprobedfactorsaffectingthegrowthofCO2emissionsowingtoChina’senergyconsumptionbasedontheLMDImodel.Mostimportantly,thismethodof“contributionvalue-significantfactor-effectcoefficient”makesupthedeficiencyintheconceptandalgorithmbefore.Besides,weexploredtherelativeeffectsizeofeacheffectcoefficientandgainedthemostsignificantpositiveeffectandthemostnegativeeffect,makingiteasierforgovernmenttodrawupanarrayoftargetedmeasuresandpolicyadjustment.However,theinadequacyofthismethodofeffectcoefficientmaybethecasethatthecontributionvalueofeacheffectis0.Inaddition,afewshortcomingsremainpossibleinthepaper.ForCO2emissionscoefficientremainsthesame,sothatCO2emissionsintensityeffectareconsideredzerofromtheresults,thismakeshowtodecomposetheeffectsizeprovedtobetheresearchdirectioninthefuture.Basedontheempiricalstudy,weobtaintherelativeeffectsizeofeachfactoronCO2emissionsandputforwardasliceofpracticalpolicy.Thesewillhavetheimportantpracticalsignificanceontherealizationofemissionreductiontargetsandthefurtherdevelopmentoflowcarboneconomy.
2DecompositionMethodology
2.1IPATmodel
TheIPATaccountingmodel,firstproposedbyProfessorsEhrlichandHoldrenintheearly1970s,isawidelyappliedmodeltoexpresstheimpactonenvironmentofeconomicdevelopment[3,4].Inotherwords,theenvironmentalproblemistheintegratedimpactofpopulation,economyandtechnology.ThebasicequationofIPATmodelcanbestatedasfollows:
WhereIdenotesenvironmentload;Pispopulation;AisGDPpercapita,namely,richnessdegree;TisenvironmentalloadperunitofGDP,thatistechnologylevel.IftheenvironmentalimpactequationintotheIPATmodelofcarbonemissionsisequival
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- Factor Decomposition on Chinas Carbon Emission from 1997 to Based IPATLMDI Model
链接地址:https://www.bdocx.com/doc/3443027.html