CHINANETCOMBUSINESSPLANUPDATE英文版.pptx
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CHINANETCOMBUSINESSPLANUPDATE英文版.pptx
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ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHICHINANETCOMBUSINESSPLANUPDATEDecember14,1999-BeijingChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHITODAYSOBJECTIVESReviewtheoverallanalysisofregulation,competition,andmarketdevelopmentDiscussthespecificimplicationsforCNCstrategyReviewthespecificdraftbusinessmodelsforCNCHowwemightattackthebusiness,carrier,andIDD/DLDmarketsWhatkeytrade-offsweneedtomakeWhatarethekeysuccessfactorsandassumptions?
Discusstheinitialeconomicsofthesebusinessmodels,andofCNCoverallDiscussthespecificnextstepsintwokeyareas:
HowtofinalizeandendorsetheoverallCNCbusinessmodelHowtomoveforwardwiththerefinedfinancials,organizationdesign,andtheplanforimplementationChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHICONTENTKeystrategicprinciplesRegulatoryoverviewMarketoverviewCompetitionoverviewBusinessmodelsNextstepsChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIKEYCNCSTRATEGICPRINCIPLESTheobjectiveoftheseprinciplesistoprovidefurtherclarityinthedevelopmentandevaluationoftheCNCbusinessmodelThesewillberevisitedandrefinedastheprojectprogressesOurdevelopmentofbusinessmodelswillseektobealignedwiththeprinciplesStrategicprinciplesandkeyassumptionswillbeconsideredinthefollowingaspectsCNCshareholdersBackbonebusinessLocalaccessbusinessInternationalgatewaybusinessRegulatorystrategyCompetitivestrategyMarketingstrategyChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHICNCSHAREHOLDERSPrinciples:
LeverageshareholdersconcertedvisionincreatinganewgenerationIPbroadbandcommunicationinfrastructureandaprofitable,successfulcompanyLeverageshareholdersexistingbackboneassets,localaccessassets,researchcapabilitiesandlocalgovernmentrelationshipstosecuretime-to-marketandcreatecompetitiveadvantageSetamodelofanewtypeof“SOE”,asefficientasthebestoftheFIE/privatecompanies;beatshareholdersexpectationsbydeliveringhighreturnAssumptions:
CAS:
stronginterestinseeingCNCsuccessfulandprofitablequickly,standsreadyforfavorableregulatoryinfluenceandresearchsupport;wantsopportunitiesfornetworkingR&DMORandSARFT:
extensivebackboneandaccessassetsandROWmainfocusonusingMORforrightofway,helpingthemparticipateintelecomwillnotuseSARFTlocalCATVinthenearterm,buttheyareakeyuserofthebackboneLeverageCATVscitybackboneMORwillcontinuetofavorCNCoverUnicom,providedCNCmeetstheexpectationasaprofitcenterforMORShanghaiMunicipalGovt:
EagertomakeShanghaiasChinastestgroundforbuildinghigh-techinfrastructure(e.g.theintegrationoftelecom,CATV,Internet)inparticular,testingHFCtodeliverbroadbandinternetoneissue:
SPTandATTJV;howtohandle?
ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIBACKBONEBUSINESSPrinciples:
Targetadvancedbackboneamong15keycitiesinEasternChina;startwith2coresfromshareholdersbutquicklybuildownnetworkUsebackboneforavarietyofwholesaleandretailvoiceanddataservicesMaintaintheleadingedgeIP/packetnetwork,bothfortechnologicalsuperiorityandtofulfillshareholdermissionMaintainthebestcostposition,usingROWs,purchasingclout,righttechnologyBuildreservecapacity/conduittodeterothersAssumptions:
ThecostsofconstructionandROWwillbethemajorityofnewnetworkcostsvirtuallyallofthenetworkwilluseMORorSARFTrightofwayNetworkwillbeIPorpacketinnatureDeploymentplanwillkeepcostslow,buildoutquickly,andcreategoodpositionlaylargenumberofconduitsinonetimelaterfill,lightup,andcolorfiberstrandsleaseoutconduit/fiber/bandwidthtomaximizereturn(utilization)ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHILOCALACCESSBUSINESSPrinciples:
Beveryfocusedinlocaldeployment,targetingprioritybusinessareasonlyEmphasizebroadbandtothecustomer,usingFTTBandLMDSwherelogicalSeekstronglocalmarketshare,especiallyinnewdataservicesgrowthareasDifferentiatefromChinaTelecombysuperiorservices,quality,responsivenessBuildstronglocalteamtoenablefastserviceresponseEmphasize“endtoend”networkownershipandmanagementAssumptions:
SH,BJ,GZ,andSZbusinessdistrictsastargetsfortheneartermTheseaccountforthevastmajorityofbusinesstelecomdemandNeedtosetspecificestimatesfortimingandsequenceofdeploymentAssumethatCNCwillhaveaccesstokeycityROW,suchassubwaysystemsWillneedspecificassumptionsabouttheeaseandcostofhookingupbuildingsAssumethatprimaryemphasiswillbeonFTTB,butthatLMDScanplayanimportantrole,especiallyininitialdeploymentandinsecondarycitiesWillneedspecificassumptionsabouttimingofaddingsecondarycitiesChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIINTERNATIONALGATEWAYBUSINESSPrinciples:
CNCwillbeoneoffewplayerswithafullinternationallicenseVitaltoenableCNCtoprovideend-to-endservices,globaldataservices,andhighermarginIDDserviceHKgatewaylinkmaybestrategicallyimportantAssumptions:
HKasoneofthekeylocationforinternationalconnectionamajortrafficdestinationamajorrelaylocationInternationalvoiceremainshighlyprofitablesegmentinmediumtermfutureExpecthighgrowthtogetherwithsteeppricedropininternationalservicesActivelyplanaheadforjoininginternationalsub-oceaniccableconsortiumChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIREGULATORYSTRATEGYPrinciples:
Mustactivelylobbyforfavorableregulatorydecisions,togetherwithshareholdersprovideregulatorswithinternationalbenchmarkingforbestpracticesalignCNCobjectiveswithfaircompetition,andpublicinterestshaveeffectiveseniormanagementfocusonlobbyingissuesBecarefulaboutcommittinginvestmentifregulatoryissuestoouncertainEnsureCNCstrategyaddressesnationaleconomicdevelopmentprioritiesPaycarefulattentiontomanagingrelationswithChinaTelecomExpectedWTOin2000willimplygreateropeningofthemarketinthefutureAssumptions:
Atleasta2-3yearwindowwhenCNCcancontinuetoenjoyfavorablepolicytreatment,whilealsoworkingtostraightenoutregulatoryissuesatlocallevelManykeyregulationsremainingreyareas,whereCNCcanplayaroleinshapingthepolicyWillneedtomakespecificassumptionsonanumberofregulatoryissues,anddevelopseveralscenariosAssumethatCTandUnicomaretheonlyfullservicecompetitors,butseveralnicheplayersWTOwillintroduceFDIintoChinastelecommarketby2002,butinfrastructureplayremaintightlycontrolled(stilllimitedcompetition)until2004/5maybeopportunityforsomeformofpartnershipwithforeigntelcosChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHICOMPETITIVESTRATEGYPrinciples:
Focusonthebestservicequality,supplywhatcustomersneed,avoidcompetingonpriceBuildboth“highways”and“tollbooths”PrepareforrapidlychangingindustrystructureBecarefulinpositioningtowardChinaTelecom:
complementaryandaddressingunmetneedsgrowingthewholemarketTheonlyviablealternativetoChinaTelecomforcarriersTheonlytrue“endtoend”networkacrossChina,withclearcentralmanagementAssumptions:
TechnologyleadstocontinualchangeinindustrystructureThedecentralizednatureandbusinessorientedbehaviorsofChinaTelecomenablesCNCtopartneratthelocallevelHighopportunityforCNCtofillChinaTelecomproduct/servicebacklogUnicomwillbeathreattostarta“pricewar”Variousnicheplayersemergeinlateryears,morethreatthan(carrier)opportunityforCNCChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIMARKETINGSTRATEGYPrinciples:
Forlocalaccess,willtargetmediumandlargebusinessesintargetedbuildingsForbackbone,providecarrierservicesForinternational,supportotherbusinessesandalsoofferIDDandrefiling,etc.Inallareas,emphasizequality,service,endtoend,etc.Getafewkeycustomersearly;proveourselvesandthenbuildfurtherAssumptions:
Carrierandlargeandmediumsizedcorporationsarethekeyfocusespeciallythoseintelecom-intensiveindustriesAssumeagrowingdemandforbusinesstelecomserviceswillneedbothhighandlowgrowthscenariosNeedtovalidatethewillingnessofkeycustomerstoswitch,andtheiranticipatedareasoffuturedemandgrowthIPphonestillthesourceofrevenueinthenearfutureDial-upISP(171)mayconflictwithISPcarrierinterests,butcouldalsoserveasstrategicinroadforfuture3G
(1)
(1)NotinscopeofthisprojectChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHICONTENTKeystrategicprinciplesRegulatoryoverviewMarketoverviewCompetitionoverviewBusinessmodelsNextstepsChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIREGULATORYHIGHLIGHTSOurkeyassumptions:
MIIregardsCNCsIP-basedlicenseasFullServicelicense,butlacksclearregulatorydocumentation.Incaseoflocalinterpretationdifference,MIIiswillingtoclarifyonbehalfofCNCe.g.ambiguityonlocalfixedline(CNCnumber)CNCwillbegrantedInternationalGatewaylicenseby1Q2000CNCIPnetworkprot
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