Christopher.pptx
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Christopher.pptx
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WillChineseStockMarketsMirrortheBehaviouroftheNASDAQ?
-Whereisthesolution?
ChristopherPollChairman,GreaterChinaConsultancyLtd.,3QUESTIONSRAISED,HOWTODEFINEA“WELLREGULATEDMARKET”?
WHATRELEVANCEAPRICE/EARNINGSRATIO?
IFINSTITUTIONALFUNDSAREASTABILISINGFACTORFORTHESTOCKMARKET,WHYAREDEVELOPEDMARKETSSOVOLATILE?
HOWTODEFINEA“WELLREGULATEDMARKET”?
TheFinancialMarketsareDynamic,Businessis“Proactive”ButRegulatorsare“Reactive”not“ProactiveTheSystemofRegulationandEnforcementcanneverbecompletelyFlexibleandDynamicImportanceofFiduciaryResponsibility,FinancialInfrastructureMAINFACTORSFORFUNDS,Government,FinancialPolicemen,InstitutionalManagers,CentredaroundPublicInvestors,PRIVATESECTOR,Lawyers,Accountants,InvestmentBankers,StockBrokers,CommercialBanks,ConflictofInterest?
ConflictofInterest,Whoistheclient?
WhoaretheFinancialPolicemanResponsibleto?
CanRegulationbeProtectwithFinancialPolicemenbeingProactive?
INVESTORS,Institutional,Private,Pensions,Insurance,MutualFunds,InvestorsConfidence=InvestorsEducation,Confidence,Education,Investors,InvestorProtection/Confidence,Easierandmoreeffectiveenforcement.Increasedefficiencyreducescosts.Improvedflexibilityoftheinfrastructuretorespondeffectivelyandcompetitively.,EfficientInfrastructureTransparencyAccountability,Leadsto:
AChineseTailorMadeSolutionfortheChineseFundIndustry,WHATRELEVANCEAPRICE/EARNINGSRATIO?
ChineseQuotedStocksCorporateProfits?
NASDAQCorporateProfits?
Confidence,$,1995-2000,C,$,IFCONFIDENCEISLOW,THENMONEYFLOWISMINUTE,CONFIDENCE,$,IFCONFIDENCEISHIGH,THENMONEYFLOWISLARGE,WhatistheCriteriaForInvesting?
1.WhatdoyouthinkisthemostimportantinfluenceonthestockmarketinChinatoday?
Thehistoricbalancesheetsandprofitandlossaccountsofthequotedcompanies-6Thefutureprospectsforcorporateearnings-10Governmentpolicy-62Govt.investigationintomalpractices15TheoveralleconomicgrowthoftheChineseeconomy-27ChinasentryintotheWTO-8,2.Howdoyouasaninvestoranalysethefairvalueofthecompaniesyoubuy&sell?
Bypriceearningsratio-35Byrelationshiptonetassetvale-5Bythelatestrumour-58Bythebusinesssectorthecompanyisinvolvedin-21Bymultipleofsalesrevenue-9,3.Whatdoyouthinkshouldbetheaverageprospectivepriceearningsratiofornon-technologystocks?
under15times-015to25times-18above25-110,4.Whatdoyouthinkshouldbetheaverageprospectivepriceearningsratio?
under15times-015to25times-125to50-16over50-111,5.Howdoyoumeasureinvestmentrisk?
Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestock-31Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestockmarket-42Byestimatingtheaccuracyofdisclosedinformation-16Byestimatingtheriskoffraud-17Byanalysinghistoricreturns-13Bycomparingwithandadjustingforariskfreemeasuresuchasadepositrate-8,AtwhatleveldoyouthinktheShanghaiAsharemarketwillbeon31stDecember2001?
mostthinkitwillbeabove2500Todayitis2140,AtwhatleveldoyouthinktheShanghaiBsharemarketwillbeon31stDecember2001?
mostthinkitwillbeabove200Todayitis183,IFINSTITUTIONALFUNDSAREASTABILISINGFACTORFORTHESTOCKMARKET,WHYAREDEVELOPEDMARKETSSOVOLATILE?
FactorsEffectingInvestmentTimeHorizons,ConfidenceinLongTermTrendsConfidenceinInformationDisclosureVolatilityofMarketsLiquidityofMarketsProfitForecastPublicScrutinyofPerformance,EACM100:
EqualWeighted(RebalancedAnnually)IndexofHedgeFundIndicesdescribedonPreviousSlide,ChinaversusWesternMarkets,LimitedsenseofAccountabilityLittleUnderstandingofRiskChineseBusinessPhilosophyReluctancetoIncentiviseExecutiveManagers,EntrepreneursUnderstandCause&ConsequenceRiskisFullyUnderstoodShareholderAccountabilityisacceptedShareOptionsandProfitIncentives,FUNDCOMPANY,REGULATOR,POLICEMEN,FUND,CUSTODIAN,BENEFICIARYCERTIFICATE,INVESTORS,ASSETS,MONEY,BasicConceptofFundsasanInvestmentVehicle,
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