ANDMANAGINGECONOMICEXPOSURE(跨国公司财务管理-.pptx
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ANDMANAGINGECONOMICEXPOSURE(跨国公司财务管理-.pptx
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MultinationalFinancialManagementAlanShapiro7thEditionJ.Wiley&Sons,PowerPointsbyJosephF.Greco,Ph.D.CaliforniaStateUniversity,Fullerton,1,CHAPTER11,MEASURINGANDMANAGINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,2,CHAPTEROVERVIEW,I.FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSUREII.THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEXCHANGERATECHANGESIII.IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSUREIV.CALCULATINGECONOMICEXPOSUREV.ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKVI.MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,3,PARTI.FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE,I.FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKA.Economicexposurefocusesontheimpactofcurrencyfluctuationsonfirmsvalue.1.Expectationsaboutthefluctuationmustbeincorporatedinallbasicdecisionsofthefirm.,4,FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE,2.Definitions:
a.Accountingexposureimpactonfirmsbalancesheetb.Economicexposure1.)Transaction2.)Operating,5,FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE,THEREALEXCHANGERATE,6,FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE,B.RealExchangeRatesandRisk1.Nominalv.realexchangerates:
therealratehasbeenadjustedforpricechanges.,7,FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE,3.SUMMARYa.theeconomicimpactofacurrencychangedependsontheoffsetbythedifferenceininflationratesortherealexchangerate.b.Itistherelativepricechangesthatultimatelydetermineafirmslong-runexposure.,8,PARTII.THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEXCHANGERATECHANGES,II.ECONOMICCONSEQUENCESA.Transactionexposure1.On-balancesheet2.Off-balancesheet,9,THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEXCHANGERATECHANGES,II.ECONOMICCONSEQUENCES(cont)B.OperatingExposure:
realratechange1.Pricingflexibilityiskey2.Productdifferentiation3.Substitutionofinputs,10,THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEXCHANGERATECHANGES,II.SUMMARYThesectoroftheeconomyinwhichthefirmoperates;thesourcesofthefirmsinputs;andfluctuationsintherealexchangeratedelineatethefirmstrueeconomicexposure.,11,PARTIII.IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,III.CASESTUDIESOFECONOMICEXPOSUREA.ASPENSKIINGCOMPANY1.Firmsexchangerateriskaffecteditssalesrevenues.,12,IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,A.ASPENSKIINGCOMPANY(cont)2.Althoughtherewasnotranslationrisk,theglobalmarketwithitsexchangerateriskanditscompetitorsimpactedmarketdemand.,13,IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,B.PETROLEOSMEXICANOS(PEMEX)1.Thefirmsexchangerateriskaffectedcostbutnotrevenues.2.Economicimpacta.Revenues:
noneb.Costs:
decreasedc.Neteffect:
increasedUS$flows,14,IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,C.TOYOTAMOTORCOMPANY1.ExchangerateriskaffectedBOTHrevenuesandcosts.2.Flowbackeffect:
previouslyexportedgoodsreturnwithincreaseddomesticcompetition.3.Lowerprofitmarginsdomestically,15,PARTIV.CALCULATINGECONOMICEXPOSURE,IV.Aquantitativeassessmentofeconomicexposuredependsonunderlyingassumptionsconcerning:
A.futurecashflows;B.sensitivitytoexchangeratechanges.,16,PARTV.ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,V.NEEDFORAWORKABLEAPPROACHA.RegressionAnalysis1.Variablesa.Independent:
changesinparentscashflowsb.Dependent:
Averagenominalexchangeratechange.,17,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,B.REGRESSIONEQUATION-approachbasedontheoperationaldefinitionoftheexchangeriskfacedbyaparentoroneofitsaffiliates:
-acompanyfacesexchangerisktotheextentthatvariationsinthedollarvalueoftheunitscashflowsarecorrelatedwithvariationsinthenominalexchangerate,18,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,whereCFt=CFt-CFt-1andCFtisthedollarvalueoftotalaffiliate(parent)cashflowsinperiodtEXCHt=EXCHt-EXCHt-1equalstheaveragenominalexchangerateduringperiodtu=arandomerrorterm,19,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,1.Outputmeasures:
a.Betacoefficient(b)measurestheassociationofchangesincashflowstoexchangeratechanges.,20,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,b.thehigherthepercentagechangeofcashflowtochangesinexchangerates,thegreatertheeconomicexposure(higherbetavalues).,21,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,VI.SUMMARY:
A.Thefocusoftheaccountingprofessiononthebalancesheetimpactofcurrencychangeshasledtoignoringtheimportantimpactonfuturecashflows.,22,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,B.Forfirmsincurringcostsandsellingproductsinforeigncountries,theneteffectofcurrencychangesmaybelessimportantinthelongrun.,23,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,C.Tomeasureexposureproperly,youmustfocusoninflation-adjustedorrealexchangeratesinsteadofnominaloractualexchangerates.,24,ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK,D.Itisdifficultinpracticetodeterminewhattheactualeconomicimpactofacurrencychangewillbe.,25,PARTVI.MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,I.INTRODUCTIONOperatingexposuremanagementrequireslong-termoperatingadjustments.A.Realv.NominalChanges1.Relativepricechangesleadstomarketingand/orproductionrevisions,26,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,B.ProactiveMarketingandProductionInitiatives1.Marketing:
marketselectionproductstrategypricingstrategypromotionalstrategy,27,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,B.ProactiveMarketingandProductionInitiatives(cont)2.Production:
productsourcinginputmixplantlocationraisingproductivity,28,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,II.MarketingManagementAdjustmentsA.MarketSelection1.useadvantagetocarveoutmarketshare2.Marketsegmentation,29,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,B.Pricingstrategy:
Expectationscritical1.IfHCvaluefalls,exportergainscompetitiveadvantagebyincreasingunitprofitabilityandmarketshare.2.Thehigherpriceelasticityofdemand,themorecurrencyriskthefirmfacesbyproductsubstitution.,30,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,3.FollowingHCdepreciation,localfirmmayhavemuchmorefreedominitspricing.C.PromotionalStrategy,31,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,D.ProductStrategyexchangeratechangesmayalter1.Thetimingofnewproductintroductions,2.Productdeletion,3.Productinnovation.,32,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,III.ProductManagementAdjustmentsproductsourcingandplantlocationaretheprincipalvariablestomanipulate.A.InputmixB.ShiftproductionamongplantsC.PlantlocationD.Raisingproductivity,33,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,IV.PlanningForExchange-RateChangesA.Withbetterplanningandmorecompetitiveoptions,firmscanchangestrategiessubstantiallyB.beforetheimpactofancurrencychangemakesitselffelt.C.Implication:
compactionofadjustmentperiodfollowinganexchange-ratechange.,34,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,V.FinancialManagementofExchangeRateRisk:
FinancialmanagersRoleinMarketingandProductionA.Providelocalmanagerwithfore-castsofinflationandexchange-ratechanges.B.Identifyandfocusoncompetitiveexposure.,35,MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE,C.Designtheevaluationcriteriasothatoperatingmanagersneitherrewardedorpenalizedforunexpectedexchange-ratechanges.D.Estimateandhedgetheoperatingexposureafteradjustmentsmade.,36,
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