中级宏观经济学讲义9.pptx
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中级宏观经济学讲义9.pptx
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IntermediateMacroeconomics,9,1,TheOpenEconomy,Whydocountriestradewitheachother?
“Nonationwaseverruinedbytrade.”-BenjaminFranklinMorevarieties;higherquality;cheaperprice,2,TheOpenEconomy,Merchandisetradeasa%ofGDP(2005),3,TheOpenEconomy,4,TheOpenEconomy,Theinternationalflowsofcapital&goodsFactorsaffectingCA(savingsandinvestment)ExchangeratesFactorsaffectingex-rate,5,InternationalFlowsofK&Goods,Capitalaccount¤taccount,6,InternationalFlowsofK&Goods,(I-S)+NX=0orKA+CA=0NXTB=CA(S-I)NFI=-KA,7,InternationalFlowsofK&Goods,SI=NX(-KA=CA)IfSI0(KA0;TB0;CA0;KA0,8,InternationalFlowsofK&Goods,经常项目顺差:
既定时期,一国居民向外国居民的贷出大于借入,从而对外净资产增加。
:
本国的净对外资产余额因此,t时点一国净对外资产余额是过去经常项目盈余或赤字的结果。
9,投资于本国:
I或净对外投资:
InternationalFlowsofK&Goods,10,InternationalFlowsofK&Goods,NX=CA=-KA?
我们借来的钱是否可以全被用于购买别国的商品服务?
外国人借的人民币是否可全被用于购买我国的商品服务?
No!
Wepay/earninterestif(SI)0,11,InternationalFlowsofK&Goods,通常情况下,相对于贸易余额,国外的净要素支付很小。
因此,经常项目余额和贸易余额几乎相等。
Mankiw的假设CA=TB=-KA正是基于此,12,InternationalFlowsofK&Goods,经常项目包括:
贸易余额利息/股息其他商品劳务和收入(旅游,工人汇款)单边转让官方转让其他,13,InternationalFlowsofK&Goods,经常项目余额部分构成(2005年)(亿美元),数据来源:
IMF2006报告,14,InternationalFlowsofK&Goods,2005ChinaCA:
USD160.8billion,数据来源:
中国外汇管理局,15,InternationalFlowsofK&Goods,16,InternationalFlowsofK&Goods,17,OtherInterpretations,如何评价CA0(SI0)?
是好是坏?
(SI)0国外比国内更好的投资机会?
量入为出的自律?
18,两期国家跨时预算约束,C1Q1TB赤字,C1Q1TB盈余,无投资。
仅选择消费或储蓄,19,两期国家跨时预算约束,第一期消费大于产出则第二期消费必小于产出若第一期贸易逆差,则第二期的贸易必为顺差,20,两期国家跨时预算约束,贸易逆差或经常项目逆差本身并不说明好坏,只是一国跨时选择的结果。
现在逆差将来必须实现顺差,现在顺差将来必然享受逆差。
21,多期国家跨时预算约束,若为有限期,预算约束可得出与两期模型相同结论:
如果有些时期出现贸易(经常项目)顺差,必然有另外的时期是贸易(经常项目)逆差。
22,但是,对于每个国家,时限可以被假设是无穷的,如何约束?
可不可能永远是逆差或者顺差?
甚至借新债还旧债无限举债(PonziScheme)?
多期国家跨时预算约束,23,多期国家跨时预算约束,美国会不会是Ponzi?
2004:
CA赤字0.67万亿占GDP11.67万亿的5.7%2005:
CA赤字0.79万亿占GDP12.5万亿的6.3%2006:
CA赤字0.85万亿占GDP14.98万亿的5.7%美国的净外债约占GDP的25即使CA赤字稳定在GDP的5,2020年净外债也会GDP的60,24,FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomy,Whatmakesacountry“small”?
-thescaleoftheeconomyissosmallthatitcannotaffecttheworldpricelevelPricetaker-takeworldrealinterestrate,25,FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomy,r=r*Domestic&foreignbondsareperfectsubstitutesCapitalisperfectlymobile,26,FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomy,Model,27,FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomy,Worldreali-rateandCAKA=-CA=IS,r,r*,S,I,CA,I,S,CA(r*),28,FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomy,Irtendsto$flowsintillr=r*NFICA,r*,S=I,IS=S,CA=0,CA0,Shocktoinvestment(betterinfrastructure),29,FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomy,YS=(YCG)rtendsto$flowsintillr=r*NFICA,r*,Hurricane(temporaryshocktoproduction),S=I,CA=0,SI=ICA0,30,FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomy,AsYconsistently,CSwouldnotasmuchAlso,investmentmay,r*,Technologicalimprovement(permanentshocktoproduction),temp.shock,31,FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomy,TemporarytradesanctiononIraqTemporaryshocktoTermsofTrade(TOT)toChinaTOTCwouldnotmuchSrtendsto$flowsouttillr=r*NFICA,SI=ICA0,32,FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomy,AlargeportionofoilfieldsinIraqweredestroyedduringthewaronTerrorismTOTpermanentlypeoplewouldadjusttheirCSwouldnotdecreaseasmuch(orevengoesbacktoitsinitiallevel)CAdeficitmaydisappearfinally,33,FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomy,Financingfortemporaryshocks,adjustingforpersistent(permanent)shocks-IMFCompensatoryFinancingFacility(CFF)Acountrycouldaskforloanswhenitsincomefromexportsisinsufficientandtheinsufficientistemporary.,34,FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomy,InfluenceofhomeexpansionaryfiscalpoliciesGorTSIunchanged(S-I)NFI&NX(CA0),IS=SCA0,35,FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomy,InaSOE,anexpansionaryfiscalpolicy(GorT)squeezesouttheNXHigherbudgetdeficitathomeleadstohighertradedeficit(currentaccountdeficit)-TheTwinDeficits,36,FactorsaffectingCA-SmallOpenEconomy,Influenceofforeignfiscalpolicies(large)G(f)orT(f)S(f)r(f)r*$flowsoutoftheSOENFI&CA,SICA0,37,LargeCountry,CanbeconsideredasthecasebetweenSOEandclosedeconomyr*willbepartiallydriventowardthedirectionthatrchanges,38,LargeCountry,E.g.Drought(temporaryproductionshock)YSrtendsto$flowsin(NFI)r*CA,butsmallerthanSOE,SI=ICA0,SSIICA0,39,LargeCountry,GorT(TwindeficitintheU.S.),40,S&IShocks,CAr*-,CAr*-,CA-r,CA-r,CAr,r*,CAr,r*,41,
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