The distribution of unsecured debt in the United Kingdom survey evidence.docx
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The distribution of unsecured debt in the United Kingdom survey evidence.docx
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ThedistributionofunsecureddebtintheUnitedKingdomsurveyevidence
ThedistributionofunsecureddebtintheUnitedKingdom:
surveyevidence
作者:
Tudela,Merxe;Young,Garry.
出版物信息:
BankofEngland.QuarterlyBulletin43. 4(Winter2003):
417-427.
摘要:
TheBankrecentlycommissionedasurveyaskingpeopleabouttheirunsecuredborrowingandwhetheritisaburdentothem.AsofOctober,34%ofrespondentshadsomeformofunsecureddebt,overandabovethatwhichtheyexpectedtopayoffattheendofthemonth,andtheaverageamountowedwasaroundL3,500.Somepeopleowedmuchmorethantheaverage:
26%ofthosewithsomedebtowedmorethan£5,000.Theevidencesuggeststhattheproportionofpeoplewithsomedebthasnotchangedsinceatleastthelate1980s.Whiletheaverageamountborrowedbydebtorshasincreased,since2000theextraborrowinghasbeenconcentratedamongthosewithhouseholdincomesaboveL17,500.Despitetheriseinaveragedebtlevelsinrecentyears,theproportionofpeoplewhoconsidertheirdebtnottobeaburdenhasincreased.But,theamountborrowedandtheshareofunsecureddebtaccountedforbythosewhoconsideritaheavyburdenhavebothincreased.
全文文献:
HeadnoteTheBankrecentlycommissionedasurveyaskingpeopleabouttheirunsecuredborrowingandwhetheritisaburdentothem.Thisarticlesummarisesthemainresults.
(1)AsofOctober,34%ofrespondentshadsomeformofunsecureddebt,overandabovethatwhichtheyexpectedtopayoffattheendofthemonth,andtheaverageamountowedwasaround£3,500.Somepeopleowedmuchmorethantheaverage:
26%ofthosewithsomedebtowedmorethan£5,000.Around10%ofborrowerssaidthattheirunsecureddebtwasaheavyburdentotheirhouseholds,similartoearliersurveys.Forpurposesofcomparisonovertime,thequestionswerebasedonthoseusedinearliersurveys.Theevidencesuggeststhattheproportionofpeoplewithsomedebthasnotchangedsinceatleastthelate1980s.Whiletheaverageamountborrowedbydebtorshasincreased,since2000theextraborrowinghasbeenconcentratedamongthosewithhouseholdincomesabove£17,500.Despitetheriseinaveragedebtlevelsinrecentyears,theproportionofpeoplewhoconsidertheirdebtnottobeaburdenhasincreased.But,theamountborrowedandtheshareofunsecureddebtaccountedforbythosewhoconsideritaheavyburdenhavebothincreased.Therecentrapidgrowthinhouseholddebthasbeendrivenbyhighratesofbothsecuredborrowing,throughmortgages,andunsecuredborrowing,throughpersonalloans,overdraftsandcreditcards.Whiletheaggregatestockofunsecureddebt(£164billionatend-2003Q2)issmallinrelationtothestockofmortgagedebt(£714billion)andhouseholdsectorgrosswealth(£5,547billion,includinghousing),itsfastgrowthhasraisedquestionsaboutwhetheranincreasingnumberofpeoplehaveborrowedmorethantheycaneasilyaffordtorepay.Thiswouldbemorelikelyifunsecuredborrowingisincreasinglyconcentratedamongthosewithrelativelylowincomesandfewassets.Itsbuild-upcouldalsoleaveothersmorevulnerabletounexpectedchangesintheircircumstances.Thesepossibilitiesmighthaveimplicationsforbothmonetarypolicyandfinancialstability.Anassessmentoftheextentofcurrentandpotentialproblemsassociatedwiththegrowthofunsecureddebtrequiressomeinvestigationofhowthedebtisdistributedamongindividualborrowers.Thisarticleissolelyconcernedwiththedistributionofunsecureddebtandonlydiscussesmortgageborrowingtotheextentthatthisisusefulindistinguishingthecharacteristicsofborrowers.AnimportantsourceofinformationonthefinancialpositionofindividualadultsandhouseholdsistheBritishHouseholdPanelSurvey(BHPS),whichsince1991hasaskedbroadlythesamegroupofpeopleabouttheireconomicandsocialcircumstances.However,themostrecentinformationonunsecureddebtintheBHPSisfor2000.ThiswasanalysedindetailbyCox,WhitleyandBrierley(2002).Theyfoundthatthehouseholdswiththehighestlevelsofbothmortgageandunsecureddebtstendedalsotohavethehighestlevelsofincomeandnetwealthinboth1995and2000.Buttheyalsofoundthatdebttoincomeratioswerehighestforlow-incomehouseholds.ThesurveyInordertoupdatethisanalysis,morerecentevidencehasbeenobtainedfromaspeciallycommissionedsurveyfromNMGResearch,thatinOctober2003askedanationallyrepresentativesampleof1,950adultsabouttheirunsecureddebt.UsingthesamequestionsasintheBHPS,peoplewereaskedaboutthetypesofdebttheyhad,theamountstheyowedandwhethertheyconsideredthedebttobeaburdentotheirhousehold.
(2)Abroadsummaryofthesurveymethodologyandexactwordingofquestionsisincludedintheannex.Only11%ofintervieweesrefusedtosaywhethertheyhadanyunsecureddebtornot.Butofthosewithdebt,33%didnotsayhowmuchtheyowed.Thismaywellreflectuncertaintyabouttheamounttheyoweratherthanawishtoconcealit.Arecentsurvey,CitizensAdvice(2003),explicitlyaskedpeoplewhethertheyknewhowmuchtheyowedintotalonalloftheircreditcommitments.Itfoundthat31%ofthoseowingsomethingoncredits/loansdidnotknowhowmuchtheyowed.InformationfromtheNMGResearchSurveysuggeststhattheperceivedburdenofdebtamongthosewhodonotsayhowmuchtheyoweisnotdifferentfromthatamongthosewhodoreporttheamounttheyowe.Onthisbasis,weassumethattheamountowedbythosewhodonotrevealtheirdebtisnotsystematicallydifferentfromtheamountowedbythosewhodorevealit.
(1)ParticipationTableAoutlinessomeofthekeyfindingsconcerningtheproportionofpeopleusingdifferentmethodsofborrowing(theparticipationrate).Foreachtypeofdebtinstrument,peopleareaskednottoincludeanyborrowingthattheyexpecttopayoffinfullbytheendofthemonth.Thisisintendedtoexcludeborrowing,mainlyoncreditcards,thatisdoneonatemporarybasis,becauseitisaconvenientwayofmakingtransactions.
(2)
Intotal,34%ofrespondentshavesometypeofunsecureddebt.Byinstrument,15%ofrespondentsowemoneyonacreditcard,13%haveapersonalloan,8%owemoneyoncataloguepurchasesand7%haveanoverdraft.Ingeneral,participationvariesbroadlypositivelywiththelevelofhouseholdincomeformosttypesofborrowing,exceptDSSsocialfundloans,notavailabletothoseonhighincomes,andborrowingthroughcataloguesandmailorder,whichisusedatasimilarratethroughouttheincomedistribution.Studentloansareconcentratedinthelowest-incomegroup,probablyindicatingthatahighproportionofborrowersarestillstudying.Theoverallrateofparticipationintheunsecureddebtmarketishighestforthosewithannualhouseholdincomeofbetween£25,000and£34,999,aroundtwicethatforthosewithhouseholdincomebelow£9,500.AveragelevelsofdebtbyhouseholdincomeanddebtinstrumentTableBsetsouttheaverageamountofdebtperborrower.Intotal,theamountborrowedisalsostronglyrelatedtohouseholdincome,withaveragedebtofaround£1,800fordebtorswithhouseholdincomeintherange£4,500-£9,499andnearly£6,000forthosewithhouseholdincomeinexcessof£60,000.Theexceptiontothispatternisfordebtorsinthelowest-incomegroup,whereaveragedebtis£2,400,reflectingadisproportionatenumberofpeoplewithstudentdebtinthisgroup.Whiletheparticipationoflow-incomehouseholdsasborrowersintheoverdraftandcreditcardmarketsisrelativelylow,theaverageamounttheyborrowusingtheseproductsisrelativelyhigh.Forexample,theaverageoverdraftamongthosewithincomeoflessthan£4,500isclosetotheoverallaverage,whiletheaveragecreditcarddebtofthosewithhouseholdincomeofbetween£4,500and£9,499isabovetheoverallaverage.Bycontrast,borrowingisstronglyincreasingwithincomeforpersonalloansand(toalesserextent)hirepurchase(HP)agreements,possiblyreflectingtheiruseasamethodoffinancingirregularlarge-ticketincome-relatedspending.Fortheseinstruments,borrowershavelittlediscretiontoincreasetheirdebtwithoutthepermissionoflenders.Onaverage,borrowingthroughstudentloans,personalloans,HPagreementsandcreditcardsisforlargeramountsthanthroughoverdrafts,catalogueormailorderfinanceandDSSsocialfundloans.Theoverallaveragedebtofborrowersis£3,500.
RobustnessTheaveragesintheindividualcellsinTableBneedtobetreatedwithcarebecausethesamplesizeissmallinsomecases(particularlyforOtherloans'),althoughtheoverallaveragesforincomegroupsandtypesofloansarelikelytoberelativelyreliable.Moregenerally,therobustnessofthefiguresonparticipationandaveragedebtlevelscanbeassessedbycomparingthemwithotherevidence.TableCsummarisesinformationonparticipationandaveragedebtlevelsfromothersurveys.Somedifferenceistobeexpectedsimplybecauseeachsurveyisbasedonasmallsampleofamuchlargerpopulation.Moreover,thefiguresarenotexactlycomparablebecausesomesurveys,suchasthatbyNMGResearch,askabouttheborrowingofindividualadultswhileothersconsiderthepositionofhouseholds.EvidencefromtheBHPS,whichconsidersboth,suggeststhatparticipationratesareabout8percentagepointshigherforhouseholdsthanindividuals.Thisisnottheonlydifferenceinthatsomesurveysprompttheintervieweeaboutthetypesofdebttheymayhave.
(1)Takingthesedifferencesintoaccountsuggeststhat,withtheexceptionoftheKPMGandCitizensAdvicesurveys,thereisaconsensusthataround40%-50%ofhouseholdsand30%-40%ofadultshavesomeformofunsecureddebt.Theprobablecauseofthe
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