the long tail长尾理论.docx
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the long tail长尾理论.docx
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thelongtail长尾理论
Chrisisexpandingthisarticleintoabook,dueoutinMay2006.FollowhiscontinuingcoverageofthesubjectonTheLongTailblog.
In1988,aBritishmountainclimbernamedJoeSimpsonwroteabookcalledTouchingtheVoid,aharrowingaccountofneardeathinthePeruvianAndes.Itgotgoodreviewsbut,onlyamodestsuccess,itwassoonforgotten.Then,adecadelater,astrangethinghappened.JonKrakauerwroteIntoThinAir,anotherbookaboutamountain-climbingtragedy,whichbecameapublishingsensation.SuddenlyTouchingtheVoidstartedtosellagain.
RandomHouserushedoutaneweditiontokeepupwithdemand.BooksellersbegantopromoteitnexttotheirIntoThinAirdisplays,andsalesrosefurther.Arevisedpaperbackedition,whichcameoutinJanuary,spent14weeksontheNewYorkTimesbestsellerlist.Thatsamemonth,IFCFilmsreleasedadocudramaofthestorytocriticalacclaim.NowTouchingtheVoidoutsellsIntoThinAirmorethantwotoone.
Whathappened?
Inshort,Arecommendations.Theonlinebookseller'ssoftwarenotedpatternsinbuyingbehaviorandsuggestedthatreaderswholikedIntoThinAirwouldalsolikeTouchingtheVoid.Peopletookthesuggestion,agreedwholeheartedly,wroterhapsodicreviews.Moresales,morealgorithm-fueledrecommendations,andthepositivefeedbackloopkickedin.
ParticularlynotableisthatwhenKrakauer'sbookhitshelves,Simpson'swasnearlyoutofprint.Afewyearsago,readersofKrakauerwouldneverevenhavelearnedaboutSimpson'sbook-andiftheyhad,theywouldn'thavebeenabletofindit.Amazonchangedthat.ItcreatedtheTouchingtheVoidphenomenonbycombininginfiniteshelfspacewithreal-timeinformationaboutbuyingtrendsandpublicopinion.Theresult:
risingdemandforanobscurebook.
Thisisnotjustavirtueofonlinebooksellers;itisanexampleofanentirelyneweconomicmodelforthemediaandentertainmentindustries,onethatisjustbeginningtoshowitspower.Unlimitedselectionisrevealingtruthsaboutwhatconsumerswantandhowtheywanttogetitinserviceafterservice,fromDVDsatNetflixtomusicvideosonYahoo!
LaunchtosongsintheiTunesMusicStoreandRhapsody.Peoplearegoingdeepintothecatalog,downthelong,longlistofavailabletitles,farpastwhat'savailableatBlockbusterVideo,TowerRecords,andBarnes&Noble.Andthemoretheyfind,themoretheylike.Astheywanderfurtherfromthebeatenpath,theydiscovertheirtasteisnotasmainstreamastheythought(orastheyhadbeenledtobelievebymarketing,alackofalternatives,andahit-drivenculture).
Ananalysisofthesalesdataandtrendsfromtheseservicesandotherslikethemshowsthattheemergingdigitalentertainmenteconomyisgoingtoberadicallydifferentfromtoday'smassmarket.Ifthe20th-centuryentertainmentindustrywasabouthits,the21stwillbeequallyaboutmisses.
Fortoolongwe'vebeensufferingthetyrannyoflowest-common-denominatorfare,subjectedtobrain-deadsummerblockbustersandmanufacturedpop.Why?
Economics.Manyofourassumptionsaboutpopulartasteareactuallyartifactsofpoorsupply-and-demandmatching-amarketresponsetoinefficientdistribution.
Themainproblem,ifthat'stheword,isthatweliveinthephysicalworldand,untilrecently,mostofourentertainmentmediadid,too.Butthatworldputstwodramaticlimitationsonourentertainment.
Thefirstistheneedtofindlocalaudiences.Anaveragemovietheaterwillnotshowafilmunlessitcanattractatleast1,500peopleoveratwo-weekrun;that'sessentiallytherentforascreen.AnaveragerecordstoreneedstosellatleasttwocopiesofaCDperyeartomakeitworthcarrying;that'stherentforahalfinchofshelfspace.AndsoonforDVDrentalshops,videogamestores,booksellers,andnewsstands.
Ineachcase,retailerswillcarryonlycontentthatcangeneratesufficientdemandtoearnitskeep.Buteachcanpullonlyfromalimitedlocalpopulation-perhapsa10-mileradiusforatypicalmovietheater,lessthanthatformusicandbookstores,andevenless(justamileortwo)forvideorentalshops.It'snotenoughforagreatdocumentarytohaveapotentialnationalaudienceofhalfamillion;whatmattersishowmanyithasinthenorthernpartofRockville,Maryland,andamongthemallshoppersofWalnutCreek,California.
Thereisplentyofgreatentertainmentwithpotentiallylarge,evenrapturous,nationalaudiencesthatcannotclearthatbar.Forinstance,TheTripletsofBelleville,acriticallyacclaimedfilmthatwasnominatedforthebestanimatedfeatureOscarthisyear,openedonjustsixscreensnationwide.AnevenmorestrikingexampleistheplightofBollywoodinAmerica.Eachyear,India'sfilmindustryputsoutmorethan800featurefilms.Thereareanestimated1.7millionIndiansintheUS.Yetthetop-rated(accordingtoAmazon'sInternetMovieDatabase)Hindi-languagefilm,Lagaan:
OnceUponaTimeinIndia,openedonjusttwoscreens,anditwasoneofonlyahandfulofIndianfilmstogetanyUSdistributionatall.Inthetyrannyofphysicalspace,anaudiencetoothinlyspreadisthesameasnoaudienceatall.
Theotherconstraintofthephysicalworldisphysicsitself.Theradiospectrumcancarryonlysomanystations,andacoaxialcablesomanyTVchannels.And,ofcourse,thereareonly24hoursadayofprogramming.Thecurseofbroadcasttechnologiesisthattheyareprofligateusersoflimitedresources.Theresultisyetanotherinstanceofhavingtoaggregatelargeaudiencesinonegeographicarea-anotherhighbar,abovewhichonlyafractionofpotentialcontentrises.
Thepastcenturyofentertainmenthasofferedaneasysolutiontotheseconstraints.Hitsfilltheaters,flyoffshelves,andkeeplistenersandviewersfromtouchingtheirdialsandremotes.Nothingwrongwiththat;indeed,sociologistswilltellyouthathitsarehardwiredintohumanpsychology,thecombinatorialeffectofconformityandwordofmouth.Andtobesure,ahealthyshareofhitsearntheirplace:
Greatsongs,movies,andbooksattractbig,broadaudiences.
Butmostofuswantmorethanjusthits.Everyone'stastedepartsfromthemainstreamsomewhere,andthemoreweexplorealternatives,themorewe'redrawntothem.Unfortunately,inrecentdecadessuchalternativeshavebeenpushedtothefringesbypumped-upmarketingvehiclesbuilttoorderbyindustriesthatdesperatelyneedthem.
Hit-driveneconomicsisacreationofanagewithoutenoughroomtocarryeverythingforeverybody.NotenoughshelfspaceforalltheCDs,DVDs,andgamesproduced.Notenoughscreenstoshowalltheavailablemovies.NotenoughchannelstobroadcastalltheTVprograms,notenoughradiowavestoplayallthemusiccreated,andnotenoughhoursinthedaytosqueezeeverythingoutthrougheitherofthosesetsofslots.
Thisistheworldofscarcity.Now,withonlinedistributionandretail,weareenteringaworldofabundance.Andthedifferencesareprofound.
Toseehow,meetRobbieVann-Adib鬠theCEOofEcast,adigitaljukeboxcompanywhosebarroomplayersoffermorethan150,000tracks-andsomesurprisingusagestatistics.Hehintsatthemwithaquestionthatvisitorsinvariablygetwrong:
"Whatpercentageofthetop10,000titlesinanyonlinemediastore(Netflix,iTunes,Amazon,oranyother)willrentorsellatleastonceamonth?
"
Mostpeopleguess20percent,andforgoodreason:
We'vebeentrainedtothinkthatway.The80-20rule,alsoknownasPareto'sprinciple(afterVilfredoPareto,anItalianeconomistwhodevisedtheconceptin1906),isallaroundus.Only20percentofmajorstudiofilmswillbehits.SameforTVshows,games,andmass-marketbooks-20percentall.Theoddsareevenworseformajor-labelCDs,wherefewerthan10percentareprofitable,accordingtotheRecordingIndustryAssociationofAmerica.
Buttherightanswer,saysVann-Adib鬠is99percent.Thereisdemandfornearlyeveryoneofthosetop10,000tracks.Heseesitinhisownjukeboxstatistics;eachmonth,thousandsofpeopleputintheirdollarsforsongsthatnotraditionaljukeboxanywherehasevercarried.
PeoplegetVann-Adib駳questionwrongbecausetheansweriscounterintuitiveintwoways.Thefirstisweforgetthatthe20percentruleintheentertainmentindustryisabouthits,notsalesofanysort.We'restuckinahit-drivenmindset-wethinkthatifsomethingisn'tahit,itwon'tmakemoneyandsowon'treturnthecostofitsproduction.Weassume,inotherwords,thatonlyhitsdeservetoexist.ButVann-Adib鬠likeexecutivesatiTunes,Amazon,andNetflix,hasdiscoveredthatthe"misses"usuallymakemoney,too.Andbecausetherearesomanymoreofthem,thatmoneycanaddupquicklytoahugenewmarket.
Withnoshelfspacetopayforand,inthecaseofpurelydigitalserviceslikeiTunes,nomanufacturingcostsandhardlyanydistributionfees,amisssoldisjustanothersale,withthesamemarginsasahit.Ahitandamissareonequaleconomicfooting,bothjustentriesinadatabasecalledupondemand,bothequallyworthyofbeingcarried.Suddenly,popularitynolongerhasamonopolyonprofitability.
Thesecondreasonforthewrongansweristhattheindustryhasapoorsenseofwhatpeoplewant.Indeed,wehaveapoorsenseofwhatwewant.Weassume,forinstance,thatthereislittledemandforthestuffthatisn'tcarriedbyWal-Martandothermajorretailers;ifpeoplewantedit,surelyitwouldbesold.Therest,thebottom80percent,mustbesubcommercialatbest.
ButasegalitarianasWal-Martmayseem,itisactuallyextraordinarilyelitist.Wal-Martmustsellatleast100,000copiesofaCDtocoveritsretailoverheadandmakeasufficientprofit;lessthan1percentofCDsdothatkind
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