跨国企业和国际财务管理文献翻译.docx
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跨国企业和国际财务管理文献翻译.docx
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跨国企业和国际财务管理文献翻译
原文:
InternationalFinancialManagementandMultinationalEnterprises
Introduction
Thischapterprovidesaselective,criticalsurveyoftheacademicliteratureonthefinancialmanagementpolicyofmultinationalenterprises(MNEs).Thefocusofmuchcurrentresearchinterestcanbecapturedintwomajorthemeswhichalsodominatethisanalysis.ThefirstisfinancialmanagementpolicyinrelationshiptotheincreasingvolatilityofrealandfinancialassetpricesintheinternationalfinancialenvironmentwithinwhichMNEsoperate.Thisdictatesonethemeofthischapter:
theimpactoffinancialrisk,inparticularmarketrisk,onMNEsandanappraisalofevolvingfinancialriskmanagementpractices.
Thesecondthemeisinternationalmarketsegmentation(ChoiandRajan1997).Theglobalizationofinternationalbusinessactivityhasevolvedalongwithincreasingfinancialmarketintegration,particularlyincapitalmarkets.Toalimitedextentthishasbeenacpaniedbyincreasedharmonizationandstandardizationofbothinternationalregulatoryandaccountingpractices(Robertsetal.1998).Despitesuchtrends,theasymmetricincidenceofaccountingstandardsregulations,andtaxationhashadsignificanttacticalandstrategicfinancialmanagementimplicationsforMNEs(ChoiandLevich1990,1997;Grayetal.1995;Meeketal.1995;Oxelheimetal.1998).Weevaluatethenature,incidence,andimplicationsofsuchmarketsegmentationforselectedaspectsofMNEfinancialmanagementactivity.
ItisclearfromthecontextofouranalysisthatwebelievefinancialfactorstohaveimportantimplicationsfortheparativeadvantageofMNEslocatedindifferentjurisdictions,andalsothatfinancialmanagementplaysacriticalroleindecidinganMNE’spetitiveprosperity.ThisbeliefissupportedbysurveysofMNEs(RawlsandSmithson1990;Marshall2000).Marshall(2000)reportstheresultsofasurveyofthe200largestMNEswhichrevealthat87percentofAsianPacific-basedMNEsstatethatforeignexchangeriskmanagementisatleastasimportantasbusinessriskmanagement.Nonetheless,todatenogenerallyacceptedtheoreticalunderpinninghasyetbeenprovideddemonstratingthatfinancialfactorsalonearebothnecessaryandsufficienttorationalizetheexistenceofMNEs,.Wefurtherdiscussthisissueinthecontextofmodesofmarketentryandparticipationinalatersection.
Theremainderofthechapteriseasilysummarized.Section2discussestheenhancedimportanceofrecentincreasesinassetpricevolatility,relatingittocountryriskandinternationalinvestmentappraisal.Theclassificationandmeasurementofriskexposureisconsideredinsection3.Particularattentionisgiventorecentlydevelopedtechniquessuchasvalue-at-riskandcash-flow-at-risk.Section4isconcernedwiththemanagementoffinancialriskbyMNEs.Inparticular,adistinctionismadebetweenmanagementpoliciesdesignedprimarilytohedgerisk,andthoseintendingtoexploititspotentialtocreatepetitiveadvantage.ThissectionalsoevaluatesempiricalstudiesofMNEriskmanagement.Section5addressesissuesrelatingtotheeffectiveimplementationofariskmanagementsystemwithinthegovernancestructureofanMNE.Brifeconcludingremarksfollowtogetherwithsomesuggestionsforfutureresearch..
THENATUREOFFINANCIALRISK
OuremphasisonfinancialriskandtheevolutionofMNEriskmanagementpracticeshasbeenmotivatedbyanumberoffactors,themostimportantbeingthetrendtowardincreasingglobalfinancialmarketintegration(Lessard1997)andtheenhancedvolatilityinthefinancialenvironmentwithinwhichMNEsoperate.Welaterevaluatestudieswhicharguethatthesefactorscanconfercertainadvantagestointernationalizationofafirm’sactivities.Inpreparationforthisanalysiswechroniclecertainmajorrecentdevelopmentsintheglobalfinancialenvironment,whichindicatetheincreasingimportanceofmarketriskinglobalfinancialmarkets.
Exchangeratevariability
FollowingthecollapseoftheBrettonWoodssystemoffixedexchangeratesintheearly1970s,exchangeratefluctuationshavebeeincreasinglyvolatile,punctuatedbyoccasionalepisodesofexchangeratecrises.Between1970andmid-2000,theYen/USdollarexchangeratehasmovedfrom361to107andtheDeutschmark/USdollarratehasfallenfrom4.2to1.9.However,thedollarhasappreciatedbyabouttwo-thirdsagainststerlingoverthesameperiod.ThecrisisintheEuropeanMonetarySystem(ERM)inSeptember1992ledtosignificantfallsinthevalueofsterlingandtheItalianLira,whilethecurrenciesofThailand,Indonesia,Malaysia,thePhilippines,andSouthKorealostbetweenone-thirdandthree-quartersoftheirvalueinthesecondhalfof1997.Therehavealsobeenmajormovementsinexchangeratesfollowingshifitsinthemonetarypolicystanceofcertaingovernments,suchasthetightermonetarypolicyfollowedintheearlydaysoftheThatcheradministrationintheUK.Indeed,theaveragevolatilityofexchangerates,whichisintheregionof10-15perentperyear,issufficienttoeliminatetheaverageprofitmarginforthetypicalmultinationalcorporation.
Interestratevariability
Interestratevolatilityhassimilarlyaffectedcorporatefundingcosts,cashflows,andnetassetvaluessincetheearly1970sintheUS,andalthoughtheysubsequentlydeclined,achangeinpolicybytheFederalReservecausedasharpincreaseinboththelevelandvolatilityofratesin1979.Interestratespeakedin1981,andthenfellslowly.Since1983,therehavebeenfourmoreUSinterestratecycles.AccordingtoJorion(1996),theincreasein1994eliminatedover$1.5trilliondollarfromfixedineportfolios.Interestrateshavealsobeemoreandmorevolatilesincemanycentralbanksbegantoabandontargetinginterestratesasapolicyobjectiveinfavouroftargetingmoneysupplygrowthorinflation.IntheUK,interestratesshotupinthelate1980sandearly1990sduetoinflationarypressurescausedbyarelaxationinmonetarypolicy,butthenfellsubstantiallywithsterling’swithdrawalfromtheERMinSeptember1992.
Equitymarketvariability
Equitymarketshavealsobeeextremelyvolatile.Duringtheinflationaryperiodsoftheearly1970s,pricesincreasedsignificantlyonlytofallsharplyduringthebearmarketof1974-5followinga300percenthikeinthepriceofoil.Aglobalrecoverythenensued,withminorpricereversalsin1982-3,andthemarketpeakedin1987.OnBlackMonday,19October1987,pricesplunged.USequitieslost23percentoftheirvalue,equivalenttooverUS$1trillioninequitycapital.Thiswasfollowedbyanotherrecoveryoverthenexttenyears,sustainedworldwidewiththeexceptionofJapan,wheretheNikkeiindexfellfrom39000in1989to17000in1992,acapitallossofUS$2.7trillion.Finallyfrommid-toend1997,thestockmarketsofBangkok,Jakarta,KualaLumpur,andManilalostUS$370billion,or63percentofthefourcountryes’binedGDP,whiletheSeoulstockmarketdeclined60percent.
moditypricevariabilityandothersourcesofincreasedrisk
modityprices,particularlythoseinprimaryproductmarkets,havealsobeensubjecttolargefluctuationssincethe1970s,atrendestablishedsubsequenttotheoilpricerisesof1973-4.Thisvariabilityalsohadspollovereffectsinotherfinancialmarkets,particularlyequitymarkets,therebycorroboratingtheviewthatitisfundamentallyincorrecttotreatfinancialmarketsinisolationfromoneanthor.Significantregulatoryandlegalchanges,theglobalizationofthefinancialservicesindustry,andlegalchanges,theglobalizationofthefinancialservicesindustry,andtheemergenceofoffshorefinancialactivityhavealsoincreasedfinancialrisks.Finally,riskassociatedwiththeenhancedglobalriskhasresultedfromincreasedlevelsofworldtrade,majorchangesintradepolicy,theeconomicandpoliticaltransitionoftheformerSovietbloc,thegrowthoftheEU,andtheemergenceoftheAsiantigereconomiesaseconomicpower.
Countryrisk
Thisincreasingfinancialmarketvolatilityhaspotentiallyimportantconsequencesforboththeissueofinternationalinvestmentappraisal,andalsotheappropriatemeasureofcountryrisk.Beforeweconsidermethodologicalissuesrelatingtothemeasurementofcountryrisk,therearesomementatorswhoarguethatcountryriskisdiversifiable(unsystematic)andthatthereshouldbenocorrections.Recentassetpricingbehaviourininternationalfinancialmarketsprovidessubstantialevidenceofcross-marketcorrelation(systematicrisk)suggestingcountryriskisnon-diversifiableeveninaglobalportfolio,andhenceshouldbeincorporated.Onthemeasurementaspects,Damodoran(2000)hasarguedthattheriskpremiuminanyequitymarketcanbeconceptualizedas:
EquityMarketRiskPremiuminCountryA=BasePremiumforMatureEquityMarket(US)+CountryPremiumforCountryA.
IncalculatingthebasepremiumfortheUSmarket,anapproachbaseduponhistoricalpremiumremainsstandard.Here,actualequityreturnsareestimatedoverasufficientlylongtimeframeandparedtotheactualreturnsearnedondefault-free(usuallygovernment)securities.Theannualizeddifferenceisthencalculatedandrepresentsthehistoricalpremium.Thismethodyieldssubstantialdifferencesinthepremiumsweobservebeingusedinpractice:
evenforthecaseoftheUSAestimatesrangefrom4percentto12percent.Thisisallthemoresurprisinggiventhatmostcalculationsuseidenticaldata,theIbbotsonAssociatesdatabaseofhistoricalreturns.
Weconjectureseveralreasonsexistforthisdivergence.First:
differencesintimeperiodsused.Proponentsoftheuseofshortertimeperiodsarguethatsuchestimatesaremorerelevant,astheaverager
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