Reliability_Lessons_From_The:从可靠性的教训.pptx
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Reliability_Lessons_From_The:从可靠性的教训.pptx
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ReliabilityLessonsFromTheAutomotiveIndustry,LarryEdsonLarryEdsonConsultingInc.Cell:
248-207-2187Home:
248-347-6212ASpecialHourPresentationForTheDanishWindTurbineIndustry,TheEvolutionofAutomotiveReliability,YOU,TheEvolutionofWindTurbineReliability,1,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,UseReliabilityAllocationtotranslatethebig“IWantThisWindTurbineToBeReliable”intoreliabilityrequirementsfordevices.Atthedevicelevel-UsethethreestepAQQprocessshownbelowtodevelopamaturedeviceontime:
AnalysisQualitativeTestingQuantitativeTesting,Definethe“severecustomer”or“severeenvironment”andusethistoquantify“one-lifeofdamage”foreachfailuremechanism.DevelopandDemonstratetheneededlevelofreliabilityrelativetothe“severelevelofdamage”foreachcriticalfailuremechanismforeachdevice.Combinestatisticalrigorwithengineeringphysics.Youshoulddefinetherequirementsandtheteststobeconductedbyyoursuppliersdonotassumethatyoursupplieristheexpertandwilldoyourjobforyou.,The“Lessons”InaNutshell,Develop,2,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,DemonstrateandValidate,Wesee“Reliability”asthreephenomenathatareoftenlumpedtogethertoforma“bathtub”curve:
StartingPoint-TheThree“Faces”ofReliability,QualityIssuesFailureRateImprovesWithTime,FailureRate,ReliabilityIssuesFailureRateGetsWorseWithTime,RandomChanceFailure,WeControlThisWithSPCOrScreening,WeMustEngineerRobustnessIntoTheProductToMoveThisToTheRight,StressExceedsStrengthAnUmbrellaMayHelpButMayNotBeSufficientDifficultToEngineerASolutionToTheUn-Predictable,3,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,Theproductstartstowearoutassoonasyougetthequalityissuessortedout.notfairtothecustomer!
TheProblemAddressedbyTheReliabilityEngineeris,FailureRate,WeMustEngineerRobustnessIntoTheProductToMoveTheWearOutCurveToTheRightRandomChanceFailure,WhenDoIGetTheChanceToSeeTheFallingPiano?
LetsFocusOnMovingTheWearOutCurveToTheRight!
4,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,TheBasicConceptofStress-StrengthInterference,TheWorldOfStress,ProductStrength,TheWorldOfStress,BeginningOfOneLife,EndOfOneLife,IAmTheExtremeUser,ValidforCumulativeandNon-CumulativeDamage,ValidforCumulativeDamage,ProductDegradesFromFatigueorSimilar“OneLife”,=20Yrs.,ReliabilityandFailureMechanisms,Stress-StrengthInterference,TargetingTheSevereUser,AnalyticalActivities“A”,QualitativeActivities“Q”,QuantitativeActivities“Q”,5,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,LegendDistributionofUsageStress,Reliabilityisgoodforthebelowaverageuser.butnotforanyonemoresevere,thanaverage.NotGood!
SevereUserAverageUser,UnreliabilityfortheAverageUser,NominalDesignPointandVariationinProductStrength,StressorStrength,HowMuchOverlapisThereWhenWeDemonstrateReliabilityForTheAverageUser?
6,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,MTBFbydefinitioniswhen63%oftheproducthasfailedand37%oftheproducthasnotyetfailed.MTBFisusefulforlightbulbsbutnotforwindturbines.,DoNotUseMTBForCookbookReliabilityPredictionMethods,ProbabilityDensityFunction,f(t),0.000,400.000,80.000,160.000Time,(t),240.000,320.000,0.000,0.009,0.002,0.004,0.005,0.007,Pdf,Data1Weibull-2PRRYSRMMEDFMF=1/S=0PdfLine,LarryEdsonLarryEdsonConsulting8/31/20099:
47:
48AM,63%,7,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,Shownisatypical“Electrical”failuredistributionwithMTBF=100.TheautomotiveindustryneverusesMTBF.Theautomotiveindustryneverusescookbookreliabilitypredictionmethods(Mil-Std217).,AssessingReliabilityofExistingWindTurbinesInformationtakenfromthefollowingwillbeidentifiedwithan*,IncrementalFailureRate*,8,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,FieldData*ShownAsAnEntropyBasedCumulativeHazardPlot,Note:
TheCumulativeHazardPlotisappropriatefora“repairablesystem”wherethefailureratecouldexceed100%.Thetrendingofthelinescanbemodeledandextrapolatedasneededforfutureprojections.,9,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,IncreasingFailureRate,FailuresbySub-SystemInTheCurrentProducts*,10,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,AverageDowntimePerFailurebySub-SystemInTheCurrentProducts*,11,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,12,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,StrategyofSolution:
Youcannotjumpfromtodaysbiggestproblemtotomorrowsbiggestproblemasaneffectivestrategy.Youmusthavegoodreliabilityrequirementsforallofthecomponentsinawindturbineastheyareallinterconnected.ElectricalisamajorcontributorElectricaldevicesfailformechanicalreasons.TheElectricalEngineeringcommunityhashistoricallynotbeentrainedindealingwithmechanicalissues.ReliabilityApportionment,AQQ,andAcceleratedTestingfor“QuickLearningCycles”isagoodstrategy,OKSoWeSeeThatThingsCouldbeBetterandElectricalisaBigContributor,WeLooktoOneofTheGreatestEngineersInHistoryForGuidanceLeonardoDaVinci,13,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,WhatwouldDaVincitellustodo?
(DrawTheBigPicture),Fromthebook:
“HowToThinkLikeLeonardodaVinci”byMichaelJ.Gelb,TheBigPictureofTonights“Dinner”,14,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,Fromthebook:
“HowToThinkLikeLeonardodaVinci”byMichaelJ.Gelb,TheReliabilityEngineerRespondsWith“ReliabilityAllocation”,CompleteWindTurbineWithReliability=5%(3FailuresIn20Years),Tower99.99%,Generator56%,Blades&Rotor56%,Converter56%,Nacelle95%,Foundation99.99%,PitchSystem90%,Hub85%,Blades99%,SpeedSensor90%,SlipRing90%,PitchGearbox98%,PitchBearings98%,PitchMotor98%,PitchBearingLubeSystem98%,SystemElectrical56%,*PitchControllerBox98%,PLC99.5%,Drive99.5%,*PowerSupply99.5%,BatteryCharger99.5%,Gearbox56%,*ThesearethetwoReliabilityTestsonthiselectronicdevice(thermalcyclingandvibration).,*ThermalFatigue98.9%,*Vibration98.9%,15,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,ImprovedReliabilityAtTheSystemLevel,CompleteWindTurbineR=63.7%at20years(1/2ofaFailureIn20Years),Tower99.99%,Generator90%,Blades&RotorandMainShaft99%,Converter90%,NacelleCover&Structure99%,Foundation99.99%,SystemElectrical90%,Gearbox90%,HighVoltageTransformer99%,16,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,OKSoNowThatIHaveAReliabilityRequirementForaDeviceWhatsNext?
WeturntooneoftheworldsgreatestqualityleadersWhatwouldDr.W.EdwardsDemingtellustodo?
“ByWhatMethodWillYouMakeYourEngineeringWantsBecomeReality?
”“Justsayingthewordswontmakeithappen.”Weneedmethodsandprocessesbywhichwe“engineerreliabilityintotheproduct.”“QuickLearningCycles”mustbethe“religion”ofthoughtduringproductdevelopment.,17,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,ByWhatMethod?
.AQQ,Analysis,Phase,DevelopmentPhase=,Qualitative,ValidationPhase=,Quantitative,SqueezeOutTime,18,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,AQ2asaStrategy,Weakness,Underestimation,Weakness,Identifycriticalfailuremechanisms“DesignIn”adequatedesignmarginsduringtheAnalyticalStep.Removeun-wantedsurpriseswithQualitativeTestingValidatetheexistenceofadequatedesignmarginswithacceleratedtestingrelativetothesevereuserorsevereenvironment.,10.00,50.00,99.90,10.00,WeibullProbabilityPlot,Unreliability,F(t),Weibull,Data1,1.00Life,5.0097%(Example)1.00,1.AnalysisSelectingTheDesignLifeTargetThatWillResultInMyDesiredReliability?
50%,35LivesLives,19,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,Slope=3,P=2,A=RRX-SF=1|S=0Slope=1.9,Ifmyliferequirementis507thermalcyclesthenIneedtodesigntoatleast1500thermalcycles,Epoxy-FiberglassFR-4CircuitBoardCTE=2,CeramicSemiconductorCTE=1,ModulusofElasticityForFiberglassEp=2x106lb/in2=KCTECeramic=6.7x10-6
(1),SolderJoint,ThermalCyclingExample(part1)Wehavearequirementforthisdevicetowithstand507thermalcycleswithareliabilityof97%.WewillassumeaWeibullSlopevalueof3.Wewanttodesignourjointtolastfor1500thermalcycles.Willourintendeddesignpassthisrequirement?
L=.75inchesSolderJoint,YD21LTYD17.51066.76.75125.001,CTEFiberglass=17.5x10-6
(2),PKY,P2106.0012000lbs/in2,T=-40to+85=1250C2000lbs/in2ispullingthesolderjointsapart,(springequation),20,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,Areaofsolderedendsurface:
AreaheightwidthArea.125.25.03125inches2,ThermalCyclingExample(part2),CeramicSemiconductorCTE=1,L=.75inches,.25incheswide,.125inchestall,Epoxy-FiberglassFR-4CircuitBoardCTE=2,.03125inches262.5lbs,21,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,inch2,lbs.,Force2000,The2000lbs/in2isappliedthroughthetwosolderjoints,thuseachsolderjointexperiencesthisforce.,ThermalCyclingExample(part3),S2,N,N1,Sm,21,2.5,1,800002000,N200,1,22,Copyright2009-LarryEdsonConsultingInc.,10/6/2009,2.5,80,000,N253Cycles,2000,200,Life-StressforSolder,Theequationforthelife-stressline:
Ourcurrentdesignwillfailin253cyclesandweneedittolastfor1500thermalcycles.Weneedtoredesignthisjoint.Wehavenotwastedourmoneybyprototypingajointthatwouldfail!
2.QualitativeTesting-UsedtoConfirmFailureModesandRemoveOutlierWeaknesses,TimeonTest,Weak,Strong,PatchItUpAndKeepTesting,TechnologyEqualsDesignMaturity,HALTTestingisagoodexampleofQualitativeTestingConductedAsAnAcceleratedTestToProduceAQuickLearningCycleLimitof,BrokenSeal,Delamination,IntendedDesignMarginsByAnalys
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