Terrorism.docx
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Terrorism.docx
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Terrorism
NationalSecurityStrategyoftheUnitedKingdom–Update2009(Excerpt)
Terrorists&Terrorism
6.25ThissectionoftheStrategyconcerns
terroristsandothernon-stateactors,such
asinsurgents,whomaythreatenour
security.Currentlythethreatfrom
internationalterrorismisthemost
significantimmediatesecuritythreattothe
UnitedKingdom.
Terrorism–thepastyear
6.26SincethepublicationoftheNational
SecurityStrategy,terroristattackshave
beencarriedoutintheUKbydissident
Irishrepublicanterrorists,withthemurder
oftwosoldiersandapolicemanin
NorthernIrelandthisyear.Nonetheless,the
threatbyindividualsandgroupslinkedto
orinspiredbyAlQa’idacontinuesto
representthepre-eminentterroristthreat
totheUKandourinterests.Weknowthat
conductingasuccessfulattackagainstthe
UKremainsapriorityfortheAlQa’ida
leadershipandthat,despitesignificant
disruptionbythepoliceandthesecurity
andintelligenceagencies,planningand
attemptstocarryoutattacksagainstus
continue.
6.27Theinternationalterroristthreat
originatesprimarilyfromfoursources:
the
AlQa’idaleadershipandtheirimmediate
associates,locatedmainlyonthePakistan/
Afghanistanborder;terroristgroups
affiliatedtoAlQa’idainNorthandEast
Africa,theArabianPeninsula,Iraqand
Yemen;‘selfstarting’networksandlone
individualsmotivatedbyanideologysimilar
tothatofAlQa’ida,butwithno
connectiontothatorganisation;and
terroristgroupsthatfollowabroadly
similarideologyasAlQa’idabutwhich
havetheirownidentityandregional
agenda.AlQa’idaandassociatedterrorists
aspiretoattackwithoutwarningandthey
aimtocausemasscasualties.Theyare
activelyseekingtorecruitnewmembers.
Webelievethattheyarepreparedtouse
unconventionaltechniqueswheretheycan
developacapabilitytodoso(including
chemical,biological,radiologicalornuclear
weapons).
6.28Overseas,thepastyearhasseena
deterioratingsecuritysituationinPakistan,
withover60suicideattacksin2008.We
haveanimmediatecounter-terrorism
interestinPakistanbecausetheSenior
LeadershipofAlQa’idacontinuesto
operatefromhavensintheborderareas
nearAfghanistan.MorewidelytheUKhas
importantnationalinterestsinPakistan
thatarefoundedinourhistorical
associationwiththeIndiansub-continent,
theclosefamiliallinksbetweenmanyUK
andPakistanicitizensandtheimportance
ofastablePakistantoAfghanistanandthe
widerregion.Theseinterestsare
threatenedbythepresenceofAlQa’ida
andthecontinuingTalibaninsurgencyin
Pakistan.
6.29Elsewhere,AlQa’idaandAlQa’ida
associatedgroupshavebeenactivein
Yemen,EastAfricaandtheMahgreb.In
November2008,Indiasufferedaserious
terroristattackinMumbaiby10terrorists
whomtheGovernmentbelieveswere
trainedanddirectedbyLashkareTaiba,
basedinPakistan.Theattack,whichkilled
atleast160peopleandinjuredover300,
demonstratedkeyhallmarksofmodern
terrorism:
itwasanattackonsofttargets;
itwasdesignedtocauselargenumbersof
civiliancasualties;itrequiredcareful
planningandcommandandcontrol;andit
exploitedthemediaforpropaganda.
FutureChallengesandtheLonger
TermResponse
6.30Fortheforeseeablefuture,AlQa’ida
anditsassociatesarelikelytoremainthe
pre-eminentthreattotheUK,althoughthe
AlQa’ida‘core’organisationmaynot
surviveinitscurrentform.Iftheverytop
leadership(OsamabinLadenandAymanal
Zawahiri)werekilledorcaptureditwould
causesignificantdisruptionintheshort
termandleadtochangesinAlQa’ida’s
structureandcommandandcontrolbut
wouldnotnecessarilymakethebroader
movementlesslethal.Afragmentationin
thecoregroupofAlQa’idamaycausea
diversificationofthethreatintheUK:
self-startingorganisations,oldAlQa’ida
affiliatesandotherterroristgroupsmayall
becomemoreimportant.Overtime,
AlQa’idaaffiliatesarelikelytodevelop
greaterautonomyandcontinueto
gravitatetowardsandtochallengefragile
andfailingstates,whereitwillbedifficult,
andattimesimpossible,toconduct
conventionallawenforcementcounterterrorist
operations.
6.31Wecannotpredictwhatcausesor
ideologieswillgiverisetoterrorisminthe
future.Someofthefactorsthatsustainthe
currentpatternofinternationalterrorism
arelikelytopersist.Manyoftheconflicts
anddisputesexploitedbycontemporary
terroristorganisationsshownosignsof
earlyresolution,andfailingstates(orareas
withfailinggovernance)arelikelyto
remainafactorfortheforeseeablefuture.
Grievanceswillcontinuetomakesome
peopleintheIslamicworldvulnerableto
thepoliticalagendaassociatedwith
AlQa’ida,andsmallnumbersmaybe
preparedtosupportAlQa’ida’soperational
activities.
6.32Globalisation,theInternetandthe
increasingeaseoftravelwillincreasethe
extenttowhichterritoriallydrivenor
constrainedgrievancesareplayedouton
aworldwidestage.TheUKmaybe
particularlyexposedtothisriskbecausewe
areaveryopenanddiversesocietywith
numerousdiasporacommunities.Political
eventsincountriesthousandsofmiles
awayarecloselyreflectedincommunities
intheUK.Becauseoftheworldwide
spreadofourinterests,andour
dependenceonthestabilitythatenables
internationaltrade,wehaveaparticular
vulnerabilitywhereterroristattacks
threatenordamagestabilityandthe
peacefulandorderedconductofaffairs
overseas.
6.33Itisprobablethatterrorist
organisationswilldevelopgreateraccessto
increasinglylethaltechnology.Scientific
trainingandexpertisewillhavesignificance
forterroristorganisationsastechnology
enablesanasymmetricapproachto
methodsofattack.Whileinterdependent,
openandnetworkedsocietiesbenefit
greatlyfromthestrengthsandresilience
thatarisefrominformationsharing,cooperation
andefficiency,itisalsothecase
thatsuchsocietiespresentunique
opportunitiesforpeopletocauseharm.
Furthermore,technologywillallow
terroriststocompensateforsomeoftheir
vulnerabilities,althoughitwillalso
generatenewopportunitiesforintelligence
gatheringanddisruption.Thesechanges
haveimplicationsfortheshape,sizeand
capabilityofoursecurity,intelligenceand
lawenforcementagencies.
6.34Aswellaspotentiallyeasingaccess
tomorelethaleffects,technologyenables
theusebyterroristgroupstocommunicate
inwaysthathavelongbeenkeytotheir
deliveringmasseffect,butwhicharenow
easierthanevertoachieve;forexampleby
thepostingofpropagandaonvideosharing
websites.Weknowhowmuch
importanceAlQa’idaplaceson
communicationsandtheexploitationand
manipulationofinformation.
6.35Amajorcomponentofourcurrent
counter-terrorismstrategyseeksto
challengetheideologythatdrivesAlQa’ida
inspiredviolentextremism.Whilstterrorism
willalwaysbeamethodbywhichgroups
mayseektoinfluencethepoliticalprocess
throughviolence,wecanchallenge
AlQa’ida’sdistortedinterpretationofIslam,
exposingitsinaccuraciesandshortcomings
inordertoreducethesupportand
motivationwhichAlQa’idaandassociated
groupsrelyonfortheirsurvival.
6.36Thelinesbetweenterrorism,
subversionandlegitimatedissentand
protestmaybecomeincreasinglyblurred.
Thispresentsaparticularandcomplex
challengetoliberaldemocracies.Wemay
facechallengesfromnon-stateactors–
whethermotivatedbyideologyornot–who
employthemethodsandtacticsofterrorists
butdonotconformtohistoricalmodelsof
terroristgroups.Itisarguablethatweare
alreadyexperiencingthisinAlQa’idaand
associatedgroupsthatlackanobviously
realisablepoliticalobjective.Itisimportant
thatwechallengematerialandarguments
whichcreateaclimateofintoleranceand
distrustinwhichviolenceasatoolof
politicaldiscoursebecomesacceptable,as
wellasdisruptingandprosecutingthose
whodirectlyinciteviolence.Wewillnot
undermineourcommitmenttofreedomof
speech,whichallowsindividualsand
organisationswithextremeandeven
intolerantviewstoexpressthem,butwewill
worktoensurethatthehollownessofthese
viewsisrevealed.
6.37Terroristscanharnessnew
technologyanddevelopnewtechniques
forcommunicationandrecruitmentwhich
makesthemincreasinglyhardtoidentify
anddisrupt.Insuchcircumstances,various
formsofcovertandintrusivesurveillance
becomeincreasinglyimportant.Yetwhile
wemustdevelopanddeliverastrategy,
structuresandcapabilitiesthatboth
addresstheimmediatethreatandthatare
resilientandflexibleenoughtocopewith
andadapttothethreatswearelikelyto
faceinthecomingdecade,thismustnot
beattheexpenseoftheprinciplesofthe
UKasaliberaldemocracy.Theseincludea
commitmenttoindividualprivacy.Asthe
debatesaroundchangestoourlaws,
measurestoenablesurveillanceandtheir
relationshiptocivillibertiesunderline,this
isanongoingchallenge.Toensurethatall
measuresweadoptareproportionateto
thethreatandnecessarytothe
managementofit,wehave,andwill
maintain,strictrulesgoverningtheuseof
surveillanceandindependentoversightof
theapplicationoftheserules.
6.38TheGovernment’sresponsetoboth
theimmediateandthefuturethreatisthe
Strategyforcounteringinternational
terrorism–CONTEST.Inexistencesince
2003,theStrategy’saimis“toreducethe
risktotheUKanditsinterestsoverseas
frominternationalterrorism,sothatpeople
cangoabouttheirlivesfreelyandwith
confidence.”Detailsof
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