UK Economy 补充阅读.docx

UK Economy 补充阅读.docx

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UKEconomy补充阅读

UKEconomy补充材料

1.UKCPIinflationraterisesto4.5%inAugust

2.UKunemploymenttotalrisessharplyto2.51million

3.UK'sAAAcreditratingconfirmedbyS&P

4.UKeconomicgrowthslowerthanpreviouslythought

5.BankofEnglandgovernorfearscrisisis'worstever'

6.BankofEnglandconsidersQEtostimulatetheeconomy

7.Eurozonecrisis:

DavidCameroncallsfordecisivesteps

1.UKCPIinflationraterisesto4.5%inAugust

TheUKgovernment'stargetedrateofinflationroseinAugust,followinghigherpricesforclothingandfootwear,petrolandenergy.

TherateofConsumerPricesIndex（CPI）inflationroseto4.5%,from4.4%inJuly,accordingtofiguresfromtheOfficeforNationalStatistics（ONS）.

TheRetailPricesIndex（RPI）measureincreasedto5.2%from5%.

TheBankofEngland'stargetrateforCPIis2%,anditexpectsinflationtoreturntotargetinthenexttwoyears.

TheBankarguesthatinflationisabovetargetprimarilybecauseoftheriseinVATto20%atthestartofthisyearandpastincreasesinglobalenergyprices.

SeparatefiguresfromtheONSshowedthattheUK'stradedeficitingoodsandserviceswas£4.45bninAugust,unchangedfromJuly.

Thedeficitontradeingoodswas£8.92bn,whilethesurplusonserviceswas£4.47bn.

Computergames

TheONSsaidclothingandfootwearhadprovidedthebiggestuplifttoprices,withthe3.7%monthlyincreasearecordbetweenJulyandAugust.

Petrolandheatingcostsalsocontributedtohigheroverallprices.

Downwardpressurefromtransportservices,particularlythecostofflying,helpedtooffsetsomeofthesepricerises.

Airfaresroseby11%onthemonth,butthiswaslessthantherecord16%riseseenayearearlier.

Recreation,particularlycomputergamesandgamesconsoles,sawpricesfallbetweenJulyandAugust.

Interestrates

ManyanalyststhinktherateofCPIinflationmayrisefurther,possiblytouching5%,beforefallingbacktowardstheendoftheyearoratthebeginningofnextyear.

"Therateislikelytomovehigherincomingmonthsasutilitybillscontinuetoincrease,puttingfurtherpressureonalready-strainedhouseholdbudgets,"saidChrisWilliamson,chiefeconomistatMarkit.

"However,inflationshouldstarttofallbytheendoftheyear,anddropsignificantlynextyearasthosefactorswhichhavedriventherateupthisyear,suchasJanuary'shikeinVATfrom17.5%to20%,highoilandfoodpricesandthedepreciationofsterlingallmoveintoreverse."

JonathanLoynesatCapitalEconomicssaid:

"August'sconsumerpricesfiguresbroughtfurtherhopethatthepeakininflationisclose.

"Westillexpectinflationtobewellbelowits2%targetattheendofnextyear."

Thepricecomparisonwebsite,Moneyfacts,saiditwasallbutimpossibleforsaverstomaintainthevalueoftheirmoney.

Itsspokesperson,SylviaWaycot,said:

"Overthelastyearthenumberofsavingsaccountsthatbeatinflationforbasicratetaxpayershasdroppedsuccessivelyfrom91toameaslyfivetoday."

Earlierthissummer,threeoftheninemembersoftheBank'sMonetaryPolicyCommitteewerevotingtoincreaseinterestratesinordertocombatrisingprices.

However,weakereconomicgrowthintheUKandconcernsaboutthestrengthoftheglobaleconomicrecoverymeantthatallninemembersvotedforratestostayatarecordlowof0.5%lastmonth.Anyincreaseinratesisseenbymanyastooriskygiventhefragilestateoftheeconomy.

（13September2011）

2.UKunemploymenttotalrisessharplyto2.51million

ThenumberofpeopleunemployedintheUKroseby80,000to2.51millioninthethreemonthstoJuly,officialfigureshaveshown.

Thisisthelargestincreaseinnearlytwoyears,theOfficeforNationalStatistics（ONS）said.Thejoblessratenowstandsat7.9%.

Youthunemploymentalsorosesharply,by78,000to973,000.

ThetotalclaimingJobseeker'sAllowanceroseby20,300inAugustto1.58million.

ThenumberofpeopleinemploymentintheeconomyfellinthethreemonthstoJuly,by69,000to29.17million.

Privatesector

"Clearlythisisaveryunwelcomesetoffigures.Anyincreaseinunemploymentissomethingwereallydon'twanttoseehappen,"saidEmploymentMinisterChrisGrayling.

Hesaidthedatawould"reinvigorate"thegovernment's"determination"totakestepstogettheeconomygrowingandcreateprivatesectorjobs.

Thegovernmentislookingtotheprivatesectortooffsetjoblossesinthepublicsectorresultingfromitswide-rangingprogrammeofspendingcuts,designedtoreducetheUK'sdebtlevels.

MrGraylingreiteratedthegovernment'sdeterminationtocontinuewithitsprogrammeofcuts,asthealternativeofborrowingmoremoneywasnotacrediblesolution.

Analystssaidtheunemploymentfiguresreflectedweakeconomicgrowth.

"Today'sdataprovidefurtherevidencethatthefadingoftheUK'seconomicrecoveryishavingincreasinglysevereeffectsonthelabourmarket,"saidSamuelTombsatCapitalEconomics.

"Continuedrisesinunemploymentinthecomingmonthsseemlikely."

However,somearguedthat,giventhecurrenteconomicenvironment,thefigureswerenotasbadascouldhavebeenexpected.

"Thebiggestsurprisehasbeentheresilienceofthelabourmarketgivenhowweakgrowthhasbeen,"saidRossWalkerattheRoyalBankofScotland.

TheUKeconomygrewby0.2%betweenAprilandJune.

Wagerises

Thetotalnumberofunemployedmenroseby39,000to1.45millioninthethreemonthstoJuly,whilethenumberofwomenoutofworkincreasedby41,000to1.06million,thehighestfiguresincethethreemonthstoApril1988.

Thelatestfiguresforpublicsectoremploymentshowafallof110,000betweenMarchandJuneto6.04million.Thisisthelargestfallsincecomparablerecordsbeganin1999.

Thenumberofpeopleemployedintheprivatesectorincreasedby41,000to23.13million.

TheONSfiguresalsoshowedthattotalpayinthethreemonthstoJulyroseby2.8%.Excludingbonuses,payclimbedby2.1%.

Thisfigureiswatchedcloselyasitshowswageinflationintheeconomy.OnereasontheBankofEnglandhasgivenforkeepinginterestratesatrecordlowsisthatinflationarypressuresarelargelytemporaryandexternal,andarenotbeingexacerbatedbyrisingwages.

Regionalchangesinunemployment

∙NorthEast+18,000

∙NorthWest+5,000

∙Yorkshire/Humber+6,000

∙EastMidlands+11,000

∙WestMidlands+4,000

∙Eastunchanged

∙London+26,000

∙SouthEast+1,000

∙SouthWest+2,000

∙Wales+7,000

∙Scotland-3,000

∙NIreland+3,000

Source:

ONS.Increase/decreaseonFebruarytoAprilquarter.

（14September2011）

3.UK'sAAAcreditratingconfirmedbyS&P

RatingsagencyStandard&Poor'shasconfirmedtheUK'sAAAcreditrating.

S&Psaidthatdespitesluggishgrowth,theUK's"diversified"economyand"flexible"fiscalandmonetarypolicywouldenableittoweatheraslowdown.

ThenewswillbewelcomedbyChancellorGeorgeOsborne,whoonMondaytoldtheConservativePartyconferencethathewouldnotchangeeconomiccourse.

S&PsaiditsAAAratingcouldbere-evaluatedifthegovernmentweakeneditsresolvetoreducepublicdebt.

AnAAAratingisthehighestpossible.AnydowngradewouldraiseBritain'sborrowingcosts,andalsoprovideammunitionforthecoalitiongovernment'sopponents.

'Lacklustre'

Inanannouncement,S&Psaidithad"affirmeditsAAAlong-termandA-1+short-termsovereigncreditratingsontheUK.Theoutlookremainsstable."

Itsaidthedecisionreflectedthecountry's"wealthyanddiversifiedeconomy,fiscalandmonetarypolicyflexibility,andrelativelyadaptableproductandlabourmarkets".

S&Padded:

"Inaddition,weviewtheUKashavingdeepcapitalmarketswithstrongdemandforlong-datedgiltsbydomesticinstitutionalinvestors.

"Thereisalsodemandfromnon-residentsforsterling-denominatedUKgovernmentdebt,whichprovidessomediversificationtotheUK'sinvestorbase."

Theagencysaid,however,thattheUK'srecoveryhasbeen"lacklustre".

Itadded:

"Theofficialassumptionthattheprivatesectorwillquicklystepintoreplacethewithdrawalofpublicspendingmayproveoptimistic,especiallygivenweakeningexternaldemand."

ThedecisiontoholdtheUK'sratingcomesjustoveramonthafterS&PshockedthemarketswithitsfirsteverdowngradeofUSdebt,cuttingitfromAAAtoAAplus.

（3October2011）

4.UKeconomicgrowthslowerthanpreviouslythought

TheUKeconomygrewby0.1%betweenAprilandJune,lessthanthe0.2%estimatedpreviously.

Outputfromtheservicesectorgrewby0.2%inthequarter,comparedwiththepreviousestimateof0.5%,theOfficeforNationalStatistics（ONS）said.

SeparatedatasuggestedactivityintheUKservicesectorgrewinSeptember.

TheTreasurypointedtothesefiguresasevidencetheUKeconomywasstillgrowingandsaiditwouldbestickingwithitsdeficitreductionprogramme.

'Continuedexpansion'

TheONSalsoreviseddowngrowthinthefirstthreemonthsoftheyear,from0.5%to0.4%.

Itaddedthathouseholdconsumptionfellby0.8%inthesecondquarter.

Separately,asurveyfromMarkit/CIPSfoundtheUK'sservicesectorpurchasingmanagers'index（PMI）recordedafigureof52.9forSeptember,upfrom51.1inAugust.Afigureabove50indicatesgrowth.

Figuresfromthesamecompanypublishedearlierthisweekshowedsurprisegrowthinthemanufacturingsector.

ATreasuryspokespersonsaid:

"WhiletheUKcannotinsulateitselffromwhatishappeningtoourmajortradingpartners,withfinancialturbulenceintheeurozoneandaweakeroutlookforglobalgrowth,theeconomyisstillgrowingandthisweek'ssurveydataforthemanufacturingandservicesectorsareconsistentwithcontinuedexpansion."

Thegovernmenthasbeencriticisedinsomequartersfor