全球金融危机讲稿.docx
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全球金融危机讲稿.docx
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全球金融危机讲稿
KostasVergopoulos
UniversityofParisVIII
THEUPSIDEDOWNWORLD.
THEGREATCONTRACTION
Theglobalcrisis
Sincetheyear2008,theworldeconomicsystemremainsinanadversedynamicinrelationtothatwhichhasprevailedduringthethreeprecedingdecades.Between1980and2008,thegeneralperspectivewasfortheglobalization,withthemassiveinternationalfinancialleverageandthederegulationsaswell.Meanwhile,withtheirruptionofthecurrentcrisis,since2008,thisperspectiveseemsexhaustedandanewone,completelyopposite,appearsinprofoundrelationwithnewoppositetendenciesatstake:
the“de-globalization”,implyingfinancialdeleveragesandthecomebacktonationalandeveninternationalregulations.AsTheNewYorkerpointsout,inthehistory,everycrisisoverthrowsthefundamentalsofthepre-existingestablishedeconomicorderandofeverythingwhichseems,aswecouldsay,the“rightreason”.Everycrisisintroducestheoppositevisionofthatwhichhasprevailedfromthepast.AccordingtheResearchInstituteofthefinancialcorporationPIMCO,duringthelastthreeyearsafterthecurrentcrisishasstarted,newoppositetendenciesareconfirmedintheinternationaleconomiccontext:
thedeteriorationoftheinternationalmacroeconomiccooperation,thegrowingrarefactionoftheinternationalfinancialliquidities,thedecouplingintheinternationalfinancialmarkets,thesignificantdropoftheworldtrade,withinparalleltheemergenceofmultipleobstaclesagainstthefreetrade.TheNobelprizeUSeconomistJosephStiglitzpointsoutevenchangesofmajorimportance:
thefreetradestandardisbynomeansasacrosanctprincipleofgeneralacceptance,butitappearsasasimpledirectiontobe“stronglyregulated”,especiallyinordertoensureitsbeneficialeffectsandeliminatetheharmfulones.Thesameeconomistobservesalsothegrowingdistrustintheworldscaleasfarastheprincipleofinternationalmobilityofcapitalisconcerned.Thenew,after2008,economicapproachesarerecognizinga“perilouscharacter”intheperfectandoutofeveryregulationinternationalcapitalmobility,becauseofitsadverseeffectsespeciallyforthereceptioncountries.Inallcases,it’struethatduringthelastthreeyearsofthecurrentcrisis,2008-2011,weassistinanimportantslowdownintheworldtrade,aswellintheinternationalcapitalmobility,whichfinallyimpliesastrongreductionforallformofinternationalfinancingandconsequentlyforinternationaleconomicgrowthingeneral.
Meanwhile,between1980and2008,theprincipalmovingforcesoftheglobalizationweretheinternationaltrade
(1)andtheunlimitedinternationalmobilityofcapital
(2),especiallyinitsfinancialform.Iftodaythesetwoforcesaretoturndownandeveniftodaythesetwoforcesaretobeconsideredasprincipalcausesofthecurrentcrisis,becauseoftheirexcessiveexuberance,thenewinternationalconfigurationriskstobeinfundamentaloppositionwiththepreviousone.Effectively,theperspectiveoftheinternationalintegrationandglobalizationappearsfinallytodayaslessunconditionalandevenlessconvincing.Onthecontrary,wecanobservethecomebackofthe“virtuous”economicmodels,basedintheinternalmarkets,inthenationalaswellintheregionalscale.Everythingtodayisgoingasifthelocal,thenational,theregionalweretakingtheirvengeanceattheexpensesoftheglobal.
Competitiverecessionsvscompetitivedevaluations
Theinternationalfinancialauthorities,astheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB),congratulatethemselves,because,forthemoment,thedisasterofthe1930’shasn’tsucceeded.Thefatalstrategyofthe‘beggar-thy-neighbour”ofthe30’sisn’treproducedtodayintheinternationaleconomicscene.Onthecontrary,theinternationalinstitutionsareensuringusthatactuallythenationsarenomoreusingthetoolofthecompetitivecurrencydevaluationsinordertoimprovethepositionoftheircurrentaccountbalances.This“perverse”gamehascontributedtothecollapseoftheinternationaltradeintheinter-warperiodandaswelltotheemergenceoftheeconomicnationalismsandextremisms,withthedisastersthatfollowedandweallknew.Thevery“perverse”wasalreadythe“obsession”thateachnationhadtobalanceitscurrentaccountsattheexpenseofitsneighboursandpartnersintheinternationalexchange.Eachnation,throughmeansofcompetitivedevaluationofitscurrency,hasreduceditsimportsandstimulateditsexports,attheexpenseofitspartner’scurrentaccounts.Obviously,thesuccessofthecompetitivedevaluationisbasedontheconditionthatthepartnersaren’tfollowingthesame.Ifallpartnersintheworldtradeareapplyingsimultaneouslythesamestrategy,worldtradeiscollapsing.Itwasexactlywhathappenedduringthe30’s.Thecompetitionbetweennationsinordertoachievemoreinternationalcurrencieshasgiventherarefactionoftheinternationalliquiditiesandtheinternationaltradewasrestrictedandrealizedparticularlythroughtheexceptionalformsof“clearing”,thatisanotherwordtosaytradewithoutfinancing,i.e.theinternationalbartereconomybymeansprincipallyofinter-statesconventions.Wecanconfirmthatthecatastrophicscenarioofthe30’sisn’trealisedtoday,atleastnotforthemoment.Meanwhile,thesamecatastrophiceffectscouldbeachievedthroughdifferent,butveryequivalentways.
Thecreditor’slaw
Today,theprincipleofthemonetarystabilitykeepsappliedinaworldscale,butratherasa“dogma”inheritedfromtheWashingtonConsensus,elaboratedduringtheearly90’s,thanasactiveeconomicpolicy.However,inthecontextoftheinheritedfromthepastprincipleofinternationalmonetarystability,whatisthewaywhichthenationstryinfacttobalancetheiraccountsandespeciallytheirdeficitswhicharetodayexploding?
–Basically,byapplyingausteritypolicyastheprincipalandlawfulwayofadjustment,byreducingdrasticallytheirpublicandprivateexpenses.Thisoptionfinally,bynomeans,deepenstherecessionanddeterioratesallbalancesintheworld.IntheEuropeanUnion,Germanyisthenationwhichimposesitschoicetoallcountriesmembers,eventoitself.TheGermanFinanceMinisterWolfgangSchaublereclaimsausteritywithoutanyambiguity:
“ThereisnowayforthesalvationoftheEuropeaneconomies,withoutthereductionoftheirexpenses,oftheirdeficitsandtherebalancingoftheirnationalaccounts.ItwillbeonlyunderthisstrictconditionthattheEuropeaneconomiescouldimprovetheircompetitivenessandreinforcetheirinternationalpositions”.TheimmediatereductionofexpensesofallkindisthestandardeconomicpolicyappliedcurrentlyinallpartsofEurope,notonlyinthedeficitstatemembers,butalsointhesurplusstatemembersaswell,asforexampleGermanyitself.Thenewpolicyisappliedasanew“goldstandard”,thatistosayasa“newdogma”,remindingforciblythe19thcenturyandbefore1914Europeanexperience.However,thebalancesheetofthatpolicyremainsinfact,uptoday,extremelydisappointinganddeeplyquestionable.
ThemostimpressiveaspectofthisambiguousEuropeanexperienceisthattheausteritypolicyisappliednotonlybythedeficitcountriesmembers,whichnormallytheydon’thaveanyotheralternative,butalsobythesurpluscountriesmembersaswell,namelybyGermany,whichasasurpluscountrycouldbeabletomakethecontrary:
increaseitsexpensesandstrengthenitsinternalmarket,atleastinordertooffsetthenegativeconsequencesoftheexpensereductionofitsotherEuropeanpartners.
Inthesametime,thedynamicsofrecessionkeepsgrowingandextending,especiallyaftertheobstructiontothePresidentObamarecoveryprogrambyRepublicans,namelybytheso-calledTeaPartyMovement.TherestrictionsthattheAmericanSenateimposedonthePresident’sprogramareconcerningtheamountoftotalfederaldebtandthelimitstostatetaxation,especiallyasfarastheextremelyhighincomesareconcerned.TheserestrictionsareinstallingtheAmericanandtheworldeconomyaswellinaverygloomysituation.Inthesecircumstances,astheYaleeconomistStephenRoachpointsout,theworldeconomyremainsmissingthe“bigimpetus”,whichcouldmakepossiblethegeneraleconomicrecovery,inordertoattainatleastits2007-2008performances.Andit’snecessarytoaddthatiftheworldeconomymissestherecovery,itmissesequallythenecessaryanddesirablestabilityforallpartsoftheworldsystem.
Theemergingeconomies
Asfarastheimpetuscomingfromemergingeconomiesisconcerned,thebalancesheetremainsnotlessambiguousandworldexpectationsareonlyhardlyconfirmed.Certainly,weregisterarathermoderaterecoverycomingfromAsianandLatinAmericancountries.But,afterall,theirinitialrecoveryremainsweak,notsufficientanditsworldimpactkeepsyetdiminishingasfortoadjusttowesternslowmotion.Insteadoftheemergingeconomiesimpetusuponthewesterns,weassisttodaytothecontrary:
finally,thewesterneconomyimposesitsownslowmotiontotheemerging.Thereisnorealinternationaldecouplingandthede-synchronizationbetweenwesternandemerginghasbeingconfirmedforonlyaverylimitedperiodoftime.Today,theworldeconomy,afteraverysmallandrapidbreak,keepsfollowingthewesterngroupinitsslowdown,inspiteofallreluctancesandevenindifferentdegrees.Inallcases,astheAmericaneconomistagrees,asinthatoneoftheChina/IndiaorinthatofBrazil/Russiaaswell,forthemoment,theinitialemergingrecoverymissesin“extent,depthanddynamism”abletoconfrontradicallytheworldtendencytorecession.Thesatisfa
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