商务英语短文阅读2.docx
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商务英语短文阅读2.docx
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商务英语短文阅读2
Investorsshakenasrenminbi’sreputationas‘one-waybet’sours
Lastweektherenminbididsomethingithasnotdoneforyears–itshockedthemarket.
Duringthefinalthreetradingsessionsoftheweek,theChinesecurrencydroppedasmuchas1.3percentagainsttheUSdollar,markingitsbiggestthree-dayfallsince2011.Therenminbiisnow0.6percentweakeragainstthedollarthanitwasatthestartoftheyear.
Whilethepercentagedeclinemayappearsmallcomparedwithsomeoftherecentdouble-digitswingsinotheremergingmarketcurrenciessuchastheArgentinepesoorKazakhtenge,amoveofsuchmagnitudeintherenminbiishighlyunusual.
Itcouldalsospelltroubleforinvestors.Afteryearsofultra-lowvolatilitythankstothemanagedpegagainstthedollar,therenminbihasoftenbeenthesubjectoflarge,highly-leveragedpositionsforinvestorsviewingitasaneffectiveone-waybet.ANZ’sPatrickPerret-Greensaidthesell-offhadleftsomespeculativeinvestorswitha“verybloodynose”.
MitulKotecha,FXstrategistatCréditAgricoleCIB,saidthatlastweek’smovecouldbeasignalofashiftinChinesecurrencypolicy.
“Themarketwasextremelylong,andwe’veseenabigshakeoutofthesepositions”,saidMrKotecha.“Theywanttotryandatleastprovokemoreriskandmoreuncertaintyintakingthistrade.Theyaregoingtokeepengineeringvolatilityuntilthatbecomesthecase.”
Thesharpmovefollowsaperiodduringwhichtheoffshorerenminbiratehasbeentradingatanincreasingpremiumtotheonshorerate.Thatsplit–apermanentfeatureofthemarket–issomethingmadepossiblebyChina’sstrictcontrolsonitscapitalaccount.
GlobalinvestorsusuallytakebetsonthecurrencythroughitsHongKongiteration,knownbytheshorthandCNH.WithinChina,companiesandinvestorsusetheofficialonshorerate,orCNY.
Earlylastweek,theCNHratehadreacheditsbiggestspreadovertheCNYratesince2010,suggestingthatinternationalenthusiasmfortherenminbihadovertakenthatfromwithinChinaitself.
CurrencyanalystssaythiswideninggapmayhaveproddedthePeople’sBankofChinaintoaction.Thecentralbanksetsthedailyfixingratearoundwhichtherenminbiispermittedtofallorgain1percentaday,andlastweekitguidedtheonshorecurrencyweakerthroughhigherfixes.
SomebelievethatthemovebythePBoCtodampappreciationexpectationsispartofitswider,long-heldaimofintroducingmoretwo-wayvolatilityintothemarket.
Itcouldalsobeanattempttobringtheonshoreandoffshoreratestogetherbeforethecentralbankwidensthedailytradingband,somethingithaspromisedtodosoon.ThebandwaslastchangedinApril2012,whenitwasdoubledfrom0.5percent.
“Thisisatacticalmovebythecentralbanktointroducemorevolatilitybeforewideningthetradingband.Theyarecreatingconditionsforthattohappen,”saidShuangDing,ChinaeconomistatCiti.“Ifthecurrencycontinuestoappreciateandthereisverylittlevolatility,itwillonlyfuelspeculationofmoreappreciation.”
WeakereconomicdataoutofChinamayalsohaveplayeditspartinthesell-off.LastweekHSBC’sflashindexofmanufacturingactivityfelltoitslowestlevelinsevenmonths,asignthatthecountry’sexportengineisyettofireupthisyear.SentimenttowardsChinahasalsobeenhitbygrowingtroublesinthecountry’svastshadowbankingsector.
Manyanalystsbelievethelonger-termstoryofrenminbiappreciationremainsintact.HSBCstillexpectstherenminbitoreachRmb5.98againstthedollarbytheendoftheyear,equivalenttoabouta2percentgainfromMonday’sspotrate.
Andunlikeinpreviousperiodsofrenminbiweakness–suchasinthesummerof2012–thismostrecentbouthasnotbeenaccompaniedbylargecapitaloutflowsfromthecountry.
Ifanything,theoppositeistrue–themostrecentdatashowthatmoneycontinuestopourin,withChina’stradesurplusgrowingby$32bninJanuary.
However,somebelievethattheapparentshotacrossthebowbythePBoCmeansthatthedaysoflowvolatilityarefinallycomingtoanend.
“Basedonhowthe[offshorerenminbi]hasbeentradingoverthepastcoupleofdays,itiscleartomethattheChinesecurrencyisnolongerasafehaven,”SociétéGénérale’sBenoitAnnewroteinareport.
TwoUKbanks'divergingfortunes,thelatestEU-Greecebankingspat,andUSholdingcompanyrequirementsforforeignbanksFeb24,2014-3:
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