中国国际收支平衡表分析中英对照.docx
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中国国际收支平衡表分析中英对照.docx
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中国国际收支平衡表分析中英对照
AnalysisofChina’sBoP
1.TheconditionofChina’sinternationalbalanceofpayments
In2015,therearesomenewchangesinChina'sinternationalbalanceofpayments.Itchangesfrom"doublesurplus"to"onesurplusandonedeficit"whichthereissurplusincurrentaccount,andthereisdeficitincapitalandfinancialaccount(excludingreserveassets).
Thesurplusincurrentaccountincreasedtobenearlythreehundredbilliondollars.
In2015,thecurrentaccountsurplusis$billion,increased33%overthelastyear.ThecurrentaccountsurplustoGDPratiowas%,itwas%in2014.
Goodstradesurpluscreateahighrecord.In2015,thebalanceofpaymentscalibergoodstradesurplusis$billion,increased33%overthelastyear.Amongthem,thegoodstradeincomeis$trillion,decreasedby4%;expenditureistrillionUSdollars,decreasedby13%.
Tradeinservicescontinuedtoshowadeficit.In2015,servicestradedeficitis$billion,increase39%overthelastyear.Tradeinservicesincomeis$billion,decreasedby1%;expenditureis$billion,increased15%overthelastyear.Thetravelserviceprojectisthelargestoneintradedeficit.In2015,thedeficitis$195billion,increased81%overthelastyear,becauseofstrongneedsofoverseasstudy,tourism,shoppingandotherspendingneeds.
Primaryincomedeficitisenlarged.In2015,primaryincomedeficitis$billion,increased74%overthelastyear.Income$billion,increased8%;spending$billion,increased17%.MainlybecauseofthelargeamountofdirectinvestmentinChina,andthegrowthrateofthespendingoninvestmentishigherthantherateofChina’sforeigndirectinvestmentincome.
Secondaryincomedeficitisnarrowed.In2015,secondaryincome(formerlyknownascurrenttransfers)deficitis$billion,comparedwithlastyeardecreased46%.Incomeis$billion,decreased8%;spendingis$billion,decreased24%.
金融账户呈现逆差。
2015年,我国非储备性质的金融账户逆差5044亿美元(包含第四季度的净误差与遗漏,实际数据预计会小于该数据)。
其中,直接投资净流入有所下降。
2015年,直接投资净流入771亿美元,较上年下降63%。
一方面,对外直接投资净流出1671亿美元,较上年增长108%,说明因“”战略不断推进,境内企业看好境外投资前景,“走出去”步伐不断加大。
另一方面,来华直接投资仍呈现净流入2442亿美元,虽较上年下降16%,但总的来看,境外投资者仍看好我国的长期投资前景,来华直接投资净流入规模仍然较大。
financialaccountsshowadeficit.
By2015,China'snon-reservefinancialaccountdeficitof$billion(includingthefourthquarter,neterrorsandomissions,thedataisexpectedtobesmallerthantheactualdata).Amongthem,thenetinflowofdirectinvestmentdeclined.2015,netinflowofdirectinvestment,$billion,comparedwithlastyearfell63%.Ontheonehand,foreigndirectinvestment,anetoutflowof$billion,anincreaseof108%overthepreviousyear,indicatingthatdueto"alongtheway"strategyprogresses,domesticenterprisesoptimisticabouttheprospectsforforeigninvestment,"goingout"paceincreasing.Ontheotherhand,directinvestmentinChinaisstillshowinganetinflowof$billion,althoughhigherthanlastyearfell16%,but,ingeneral,foreigninvestorsarestilloptimisticabouttheprospectsoflong-terminvestment,thenetinflowofdirectinvestmentscaleinChinaisstillrelativelyBig.
外汇储备下降
2015年末,我国外汇储备余额万亿美元,较上年末减少5127亿美元,下降13%。
其中,因国际收支交易形成的外汇储备下降3423亿美元,因汇率、资产价格变动等非交易因素形成的外汇储备账面价值下降1703亿美元。
thedeclineinforeignexchangereserves.
Theendof2015,foreignexchangereservesof$trillion,representingareductionof$billionthepreviousyear,down13%.Amongthem,thebalanceofpaymentsduetotheformationoftradingforeignexchangereservesfell$billion,thebookvalueofforeignexchangereservesduetonon-tradingfactors,theexchangerateandassetpricechangesandthelikefell$billion.
2.2015年经常账户顺差大幅增长,而资本却呈现流出。
2015currentaccountsurplusincreasedsignificantly,whilecapitaloutflowwaspresented。
按照最新的国际标准,国际收支平衡表分为经常账户、资本和金融账户,如果不考虑误差与遗漏,那么经常账户与资本和金融账户必然相等,而符号相反。
也就是说,只要经常项目是顺差,那么资本和金融账户必然是逆差,经常账户顺差越大,资本和金融账户逆差也越大。
Inaccordancewiththelatestinternationalstandards,bopintothecurrentaccount,capitalandfinancialaccount,ifyoudonotconsidertheerrorsandomissions,thenthecurrentaccountandthecapitalandfinancialaccountnecessarilyequal,butoppositeinsign.Thatis,aslongasthecurrentaccountsurplus,thecapitalandfinancialaccountdeficitisinevitable,thegreaterthecurrentaccountsurplus,capitalandfinancialaccountdeficitisgreater.
根据国际收支平衡表的记录原则,对外资产增加或负债减少记录为资本流出,也就是说,资本和金融账户逆差表示我国对外净资产增加。
以往年份,经常项目大幅顺差,我国是通过储备资产增加也就是储备资产对外投资形式的资本流出来实现国际收支平衡的。
2015年这种情况出现了很大的变化,由以往储备资产大幅增加形成的资本流出转变为由其他民间部门的对外净资产大幅增加而形成的资本流出。
TherecordingprincipleBoP,externalassetsandliabilitiesincreaseordecreaserecordoutflowofcapital,thatis,thecapitalandfinancialaccountdeficitrepresentedanincreaseofnetforeignassets.Previousyears,asubstantialcurrentaccountsurplus,byincreasingourreserveassetsisintheformofforeigninvestmentcapitalflowoutofreserveassetstoachievethebalanceofpayments.2015thissituationhaschangedalotfromthepast,asubstantialincreaseincapitaloutflowschangeinreserveassetsformedbyasubstantialincreaseinthenetforeignassetsofotherprivatesectorandtheformationofcapitaloutflows.
2015年出现的资本流出主要是境内银行和企业等主动增持对外资产,并偿还以往的对外融资,与通常所说的外资撤离有着本质区别。
2015年,国际收支交易引起的储备资产下降3429亿美元,在平衡表中体现为资本流入,非储备性质的金融账户为资本净流出5044亿美元。
也就是说,一方面储备资产在下降,另一方面,民间部门的对外净资产在增加。
前三季度,我国对外资产共增加2727亿美元,其中“走出去”等对外直接投资增加1150亿美元,港股通和QDII等形式的对外股票和债券投资增加573亿美元,在国外存款和对外贷款等其他投资增加969亿美元。
对外负债共下降321亿美元,其中,来华直接投资仍流入1841亿美元,而负债下降主要体现在非居民存款下降以及偿还以往年度的贸易融资等。
2015capitaloutflowsoccurredmainlydomesticbanksandenterprisesandotheractiveholdingsofforeignassetsandrepaymentofexternalfinancinginthepast,andusuallyrefertothewithdrawalofforeigninvestmentisessentiallydifferent.2015,reserveassetsbalanceofpaymentsduetotransactionsdecreased$billion,reflectingcapitalinflowsinthebalancesheet,non-reservefinancialaccountnetoutflowofcapitalis$billion.Thatis,ontheonehandreserveassetsdeclined,ontheotherhand,thenetforeignassetsoftheprivatesectorisincreasing.Thefirstthreequarters(fourthquarterdatayet),China'sforeignassets,atotalincreaseof$billion,ofwhich"goout"andotherforeigndirectinvestmentsincreased$115billionofforeignstocksandbondsthroughinvestmentinHongKongstocksandotherformsofQDIIincreasedbilliondollarsinotherforeigninvestmentandforeignloans,depositsincreased$billion.Totalexternalliabilitiesdeclined$billion,ofwhich,Chinadirectinvestmentinflowsarestill$billion,whileliabilitiesdecreasedmainlyreflectedinthedeclineinnon-residentdepositsandrepaymentoftradefinanceinthepastyearandsoon.
总的来看,我国目前的资本流出是对外资产由储备资产向民间部门转移的过程,我国的对外资产负债结构决定了我国涉外经济的稳定性,也有能力抵御大的冲击。
首先,我国经常账户持续顺差,对外净资产较大。
2015年9月末,我国对外金融资产万亿美元,对外负债万亿美元,净资产万亿美元,净资产稳居世界第二位。
只要我国经常账户持续顺差,就必然会形成对外净资产增加形式的资本流出,只不过净资产以储备形式存在还是由民间部门持有会有所不同。
其次,央行持有大额外汇储备,有利于国家集中资源应对可能出现的各种资本流动冲击。
2015年末,我国储备资产万亿美元,居世界第一,是排名第二位的日本(万亿美元)的近三倍,是排名第三的沙特(6000多亿美元)的约五倍。
第三,与其他国家对外负债主要是外资的短期股票和债券投资不同,我国对外负债以来华直接投资为主,直接投资具有长期经营、稳定性强的特点。
2015年9月末,我国来华直接投资存量万亿美元,占总负债的60%。
这些投资已融入实体经济中,撤资需要将所持有的土地、厂房、机器等变现,需要逐步的过程,即便要汇出以往积累的未分配利润,也需要足够的现金流支持。
第四,当前民间部门对外净资产的增加,绝大部分是生产性的,例如对外直接投资,是更好利用“两个市场、两种资源”的积极结果。
理论和实践都表明,当经济发展到一定阶段后,民间部门在全球范围内配置生产和金融资源将是一个趋势。
最后,资本不可能长期大规模流入,有进有出也是客观经济规律。
2000年以来到2013年,国际资本大量涌入新兴市场,中国资本净流入尤其突出,累计达到万亿美元,随着国内外经济环境的变化,资本有序正常流出也是难免的。
对于资本和金融账户出现逆差、外汇储备下降的国际收支形势变化,需要客观看待。
Overall,China'scurrentcapitaloutflowofforeignassetsbytheprocessofthetransferofreserveassetstotheprivatesector,China'sexternalassetsandliabilitiesstructuredeterminesthestabilityofforeigneconomic,butalsohastheabilitytowithstandlargeshocks.First,China'scurrentaccountsurpluscontinuedtolargernetforeignassets.TheendofSeptember2015,China'sexternalfinancialassetsof$trillion,trillionUSdollarsofforeigndebt,netassetsof$trillioninnetassetsrankedsecondintheworld.Aslongasthecapitalofpersistentcurrentaccountsurpluses,itisboundtoformtheexternalformofincreasedoutflowofnetassets,exceptnetassetsintheformofreservesheldbytheprivatesectororbedifferent.Second,largeforeignexchangereservesheldbythecentralbank,infavorofcountriespoolingresourcestodealwithallkindsofcapitalflowsshocksthatmayarise.Theendof2015,China'sreserveassetstrillionUSdollars,rankingfirstintheworld,isrankedsecondinJapan($trillion)isnearlythreetimesandisrankedthirdinSaudiArabia(600billiondollars)isaboutfivetimes.Third,theexternalliabilitiesofothercountries,mainlyinvariousshort-termforeigncapitalinvestmentinstocksandbonds,sinceChina'sforeigndirectinvestmentinChina-basedliabilities,directinvestmenthasalong-termbusiness,strongstabilitycharacteristics.TheendofSeptember2015,China'sdirectinvestmentinChinastock$trillion,60%oftotalliabilities.Theseinvestmentshavebeenintegratedintotherealeconomy,needstobeheldbythedivestmentofland,buildings,machineryandothercashneededgradualprocess,evenifyouwanttoexportinthepastaccumulatedundistributedprofits,butalsoneedenoughcashflowtosupport.Fourth,thecurrentincreaseinthenetforeignassetsoftheprivatesector,mostproductive,suchasforeigndirectinvestment,abetteruseof"twomarketsandtworesources"positiveresults.Theoryandpracticehaveshownthatwhentheeconomydevelopstoacertainstage,theconfigurationoftheprivatesectorintheglobalproductionandfinancialresourceswillbeatrend.Finally,themassiveinflowofcapitalcannotbelong-term,thereisacarryoutthereisalsoanobjectiveeconomiclaws.By2013,theinfluxofinternationalcapitalsince2000,emergingmarkets,Chinainparticular,thenetinflowofcapitaloutstan
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