中美货物贸易的统计差异研究报告英文版.docx
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中美货物贸易的统计差异研究报告英文版.docx
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中美货物贸易的统计差异研究报告英文版
ReportontheStatisticalDiscrepancyofMerchandiseTradeBetween
theUnitedStatesandChina
October2009Hangzhou,P.R.C
Abstract
InApril2004,the15thU.S.-ChinaJointCommissiononCommerceandTrade(JCCT)establishedastatisticalworkinggroup.ParticipatingunitsfromtheChinesesideincludetheMinistryofCommerceofthePeople’sRepublicofChinaandtheChineseGeneralAdministrationofCustoms;theU.S.sideincludestheU.S.DepartmentofCommerceandtheOfficeoftheU.S.TradeRepresentative.Inviewoftheunusuallylargeandgrowingstatisticaldiscrepanciesinthebilateralmerchandisetradedataofficiallypublishedbytwocountries,theinitialfocusoftheworkinggroupwastoexaminethebilateralmerchandisetradestatisticsbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStates.Membersagreedtoconductareconciliationstudy,usingrecentdata,toexplainandquantifythestatisticaldiscrepanciesinthebilateralmerchandisetradedata.Thegoalofthestudyisnottoaltertheofficialstatisticsofeithercountry,buttoidentifythecausesofthestatisticaldiscrepanciesintheofficialdataofthetwocountries,andtofacilitateacommonunderstandingbydatausersoftheactualsituationofthebilateraltradeandthecausesofthestatisticaldiscrepanciesinthebilateraltradedata.Adjustmentsmadetostatisticaldata,toachievemutuallyagreeduponsetsoftradefigures,donotimplyerrorsinthestatisticalsystemsofeithercountry.Neitherdotheadjustmentsrepresentrevisionsorcorrectionstoeithercountry’spublishedtradefigures.
Previously,in1994,atradestatisticsworkinggroupwasestablishedatthe8thU.S.-ChinaJCCTmeetingtoaddresstheissueofdiscrepanciesinthebilateraltradestatistics.ThemainconclusionreachedwasthatgoodsshippedindirectlyfromChinaviaHongKongandotherintermediarycountriesorregionsaccountforalargepartofthediscrepancyintheU.S.-Chinabilateraltradestatistics.Althoughbothcountriesfollowthesameinternationalguidelinesonmerchandisetradestatisticsprograms,thecorrespondingimportandexportstatisticsfrombothcountrieswillnotnecessarilymatch.DifferencesinpartnercountryattributionandvalueaddedinintermediarycountriesorregionsaremajorcausesofthediscrepanciesinindirecttradefromChinatotheUnitedStates.
Thepresentreconciliationstudycoversbilateralmerchandisetradedatainyears2000,2004and2006.Followingarethemainfindingsandconclusions:
1.ThelevelofbilateraltradebetweentheUnitedStatesandChinahascontinuedtogrow,andsohasthelevelofthediscrepancies.However,thestatisticaldiscrepancyinpercentage(theabsolutestatisticaldiscrepancyoverthecorrespondingimports’value)hasdecreasedinbotheastboundtrade(ChinatoUnitedStates)andwestboundtrade(UnitedStatestoChina).Inotherwords,disregardingtheimpactoftradeexpansion,thediscrepancyinthebilateraltradestatisticshasdecreased.
2.Eastboundtradecontributestothemajorityofthestatisticaldiscrepancy,about80-90percentofthetotal.Thisproportionhasincreasedwiththerecentgrowthinthevolumeofbilateraltrade.U.S.importsfromChinaincreased187percent,from$100.1billion(U.S.Dollars)in2000,toUSD287.8billionin2006.ChinaexportstotheUnitedStatesrose291percent,fromUSD52.1billionin2000toUSD203.5billionin2006.DiscrepanciesincreasedfromUSD48.0billiontoUSD84.3billionoverthesameperiod,whilewestbounddiscrepanciesdecreasedfromUSD6.1billiontoUSD4.0billion.Duetothelargerdiscrepancies,theeffortsoftheworkinggroupareconcentratedonanalyzingtheeastboundtrade.
3.Thestatisticaldiscrepancyineastboundtradecanstemfromconceptualandmethodologicaldifferencesinthecollectionandprocessingofthetradedata.Differencesinstatisticalterritorydefinitions,differencesintimingofrecording,andinclusionofre-exportsinexportstatisticscontributetothediscrepancy.However,thesefactorshaveminimalnetimpact.Theworkinggroupfurtherresearchedeastboundindirectanddirecttradeseparatelytostudythestatisticaldiscrepancies:
(A)EastboundindirecttradeleavesChina,entersthecommerceofintermediarycountriesorregions,andisthenre-exportedtotheUnitedStates.Theproportionofindirecttradehasdecreasedrecently;however,itstillaccountedforashighas52percentofthetotaleastboundstatisticaldiscrepancyin2006.AlthoughbothChinaandtheUnitedStatesfollowthesameinternationalguidelinesforpartnercountryattribution,thediscrepancyishardtoavoidduetotheattributionofimportstocountryoforigin,andexportstocountryoflastknowndestination.Discrepanciesmayoccurwhengoodsenterthecommerceoftheintermediarycountryorregion.Newvaluesmaybeaddedduetofurtherprocessing,re-packing,orasimplepricemarkupwhenthegoodsarere-sold.Anothersourceofthediscrepanciesiswhentheintermediarycountryorregion,insteadoftheUnitedStates,isthelastknowndestinationbyChineseexporters.Inthiscase,thegoodsarerecordedasexportstotheintermediarycountryorregionbyChinesecustomswhilerecordedasimportsfromChinabytheUnitedStatesbasedontheprincipleofCountryofOrigin.MostindirecttrademovesthroughHongKong,buttheproportionisdecreasinggraduallyeveryyear.Indirecttradethroughothercountriescontinuestoincreaseinbothvolumeanditscontributiontothestatisticaldiscrepancy.
ThegroupestimatesthatthestatisticaldiscrepancyattributabletotheabovecausesineastboundindirecttradecontributedUSD28.9billiontotheoveralldiscrepancyin2000,USD32.7billionin2004,andUSD44.1billionin2006.
(B)EastbounddirecttrademovesfromChinatotheUnitedStateswithoutenteringthecommerceofothercountriesorregions.Itaccountedfortheremaining48percentoftheeastboundstatisticaldiscrepancyin2006.Theworkinggroupdeterminedthatdifferencesinvaluesdeclaredtocustomsaccountforalargepartofthestatisticaldiscrepancyindirecttrade.AmeasurablefactorinthedirecttradediscrepancywasthatthevaluesdeclaredtotheU.S.customsatthetimeofimportationwerehigherthanthevaluesdeclaredtotheChinesecustomsatthetimeofexportation.GoodsexportedfromChinamaychangeownershipinroutetotheUnitedStates.Theworkinggroupdeterminedthatthisoccursmoreoftenwithprocessedgoodscomparedtogeneralgoods.ThehighervaluesreportedforthegoodsinU.S.importsreflectmarkupsandnotanytransformationoftheproducts.
Theworkinggroupheldin-depthdiscussionsoverseveraltechnicalissuesinanefforttodevelopamethodologytoquantifythestatisticaldiscrepancyattributabletomarkupsintheeastbounddirecttradedata.ThegroupestimatesthatthedifferencesinreportedvaluesineastbounddirecttradecontributedUSD13.2billiontotheoveralldiscrepancyin2000,USD19.4billionin2004,andUSD21.0billionin2006.
(C)Insummary,theworkinggroupidentifiedreasonsforthebilateralstatisticaldiscrepancyineastboundtrade,anddevelopedestimatestoquantifytheircontributionstothetotaldiscrepancy.Afterapplyingadjustmentstothetradestatisticsbasedontheseestimates,thestatisticaldiscrepanciesforthethreeyearsinthestudysignificantlydecreased.In2000,theeastboundstatisticaldiscrepancybaseonofficiallypublisheddatawasUSD48.0billion,butonceadjustmentsforexplainabledifferencesweremade,thediscrepancydecreasedtoUSD7.5billion.In2004,and2006,theamountofstatisticaldiscrepancyisadjustedfromUSD71.8billiontoUSD23.5billion,andUSD84.3billiontoUSD24.2billion,respectively.Theresidual,orremainingstatisticaldiscrepancyineastboundtradethattheworkinggroupdidnotaccountfor,isbetween8and12percentofthetotalU.S.importsforeachofthethreeyears.
4.Onlyasmallportionofthestatisticaldiscrepancyisduetowestboundtrade,sotheworkinggrouplimiteditsanalysisbystudyingtheconceptualandmethodologicaldifferenceswithoutseparatingthedatabetweenindirectanddirecttrade.Resultsrevealedthatdifferentmethodsofvaluationappliedbybothcountries(Chinavaluesimportsonabasisofcost,insurance,andfreight,whiletheUnitedStatesvaluesexportsonafreealongsideshipbasis)arethemainfactorthatcausesthestatisticaldiscrepancyinwestboundtrade.
ResearchReport
I.Overview
Background
Astatisticalworkinggroupwasformedatthe8thU.S.-ChinaJCCTmeetingin1994toconductareconciliationstudytoexplainandquantifydiscrepanciesintheofficialU.S.–Chinabilateralmerchandisetradestatistics.Thisoriginalstudygrewoutofconcernsthatthetradestatisticspublishedbyeachcountrydisplayedunusuallylargediscrepancieswiththestatisticsofthepartnercountry.Sincethe1990s,theU.S.–Chinabilateraltradehassignificantlygrown,ashavethediscrepanciesinthecorrespondingpublishedstatistics.Intheoriginalreconciliationstudy,totaltradebetweenthetwocountriesreportedbyChinawasUSD27.7billionwithatradesurplusofUSD6.3billionin1993;whiletheUnitedStatesreportedUSD40.3billionwithatradedeficitofUSD22.8billion.AccordingtotheChinesestatistics,thetradevaluebetweentheUnitedStatesandChinawasUSD262.7billionin2006,withatradesurplusofUSD144.3billion;whileaccordingtotheU.S.statistics,theU.S.-ChinatradehadavalueofUSD343.0billionwithatradedeficitofUSD232.6billion.
Inordertobetterunderstandthecausesforthebilateraltradestatisticaldiscrepancyconsideringtherecentchangesintrade,anotherjointstatisti
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- 中美 货物贸易 统计 差异 研究 报告 英文