英文文献2.docx
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英文文献2.docx
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英文文献2
2.AssessmentoftheEconomicContributionofWaterResourcestoNationalDevelopment
2.水资源对国家发展的经济贡献评估
2.1.Introduction
2.1.引言
Theprocessofdevelopmenthasbothsocialandeconomicdimensions.发展的过程同时具有社会和经济层面。
Thetwoarelinked,andreinforcing,inmanyimportantways.二者在许多重要方面联系紧密,相辅相成。
Atthemicrolevel,ashouseholdincomerises,afamilycanaffordabetterstandardofliving.在微观层面上,家庭收入增加,一个家庭可以享受更高的生活水平。
Atthemacrolevel,however,therearenumerousexamplesofcountrieswhere,althoughtheaveragelevelofincomehasincreased,incomedistributionhasbecomemoreinequitable.然而,在宏观层面上,有无数这样的的例子:
所在国家的收入平均水平虽然有所增加,收入分配却变得更加不公平。
Insomecasestheabsolute,aswellastherelative,well-beingofthepoorestpeopledeclinedaseconomicdevelopmentprogressed.在某些情况下,随着经济的发展进步,那部分最穷的人的福利的绝对值和相对值都在下降。
Thecountry’ssocialfabricwasplacedunderincreasingstrainbytheworseninglivingconditions,particularlyfortheurbanpoor.由于人民特别是城市贫民生活条件恶化,国家的社会结构压力越来越大。
Thedistributionofincomeisgenerallymoreskewedindevelopingcountriesthaninindustrialcountriesandalargeproportionoftheirtotalpopulationisoftenlivinginabsolutepoverty(asusedinthispaper,thetermabsolutepovertyreferstothestateofthosewithoutaccesstothebasicrequirementsofahealthylifeincludingsafewater,adequatenutritionandsanitationfacilities)evenincountrieswheretheaverageincomemaybemoderatelyhigh.发展中国家的收入分配与工业化国家相比一般更加不均匀,他们的总人口相当大的比例往往是生活在绝对贫困的状态下,甚至是在国家的平均收入相对较高的情况下。
(本文中的长期绝对贫困是指那些没有获得健康生活的基本要求,包括安全饮用水,足够的营养和卫生设施的状态)Forexample,inthePhilippinesin1971thelowest30percentofhouseholdsearnedonly8percentofthetotalincomewhileinJapanthecorrespondinggroupaccountedfor14percent(in1972).例如,1971年在菲律宾收入最低的30%的家庭仅占总收入的8%,而在日本,相应的组占14%(1972年)。
Thedevelopmentandexploitationofacountry’swaterresourcesplaysanimportantroleinbothitseconomicandsocialdevelopment.Waterisbothaneconomicgoodandasocialnecessity.Thefirstsectionofthispaperdiscusseswater’scontributiontoeconomicdevelopment.Thesecondsectiondealswithitsroleinmeetingacountry’ssocialobjectives.Inthefinalsection,thequestionofwhethertheeconomicandsocialcontributionsofwaterresourcedevelopmentarecomplementaryorcompetingisdiscussed,andmethodsaresuggestedforintegratingtheachievementofbothobjectives.
2.2.WaterasanEconomicGood
Economicdevelopmentcanbeviewedastheprocessofincreasingtheproductionofgoodsandservicesgivenacountry’sresourceendowment.Theendowmentgenerallyincludesbothvariableresources,suchaslabourandcapital,andfixed,ornaturalresources,suchasland,minerals,water,andsoon.Combiningtheseinputsinsuchaway(thatis,withsuchasetoftechnologies)soastomaximizetotaloutputiswhatconstituteseconomicefficiency.Asaneconomygrowsitoftendevelopsmoresophisticatedproductionchainsleadingfrominputstooutputs.
Aconceptualtooloftenusedbyeconomiststocharttheeconomicgrowthprocessisaninput/output(I/O)matrix.Thisisbasicallyatablewhichliststheinputs,orfactorsofproductionalongthesideandtheoutputs(bysector)acrossthetop.Anumberfoundinaparticularcellofthetableisthecoefficientwhichtransformsaninputintoanoutputor,alternatively,breaksupanoutputintoitsconstituentinputs.Thusif0.5isthenumberinthecellreadingacrossfromlabourtoagriculture,thenforeachunitofagriculturaloutputonehalfunitoflabourinputisrequired.(Sucharigidrelationshipbetweeninputsandoutputsisanoversimplification,ofcourse.Substitutionsofoneinputforanotherarelikelytooccurifrelativepriceschange.Newtechnologiescancompletelychangetheproductionrelationship.Butintheshortrun,atleasttheordersofmagnitudeinanI/Otablecanprovideausefulsummaryofhowaneconomyfunctions.)Ofcourse,mostI/Otablesareconsiderablymoredisaggregatedandwouldhavemanysubsectorsofagricultureandmanyskillclassesoflabour.
AnexaminationofI/Otablesforseveraldevelopingcountrieswasmadeinanattempttodeterminethroughwhichsectorsthecontributionofwaterresourcestodevelopmentwasfelt.Thecountrieswhichincludedwaterasaseparatefactorofproductiontraceditsinfluencethroughthreemainsectors:
agriculture,powergenerationandtransportation.Sinceformanydevelopingcountriesagricultureisthedominantsectorinthegrossdomesticproduct(GDP),watermayplayamajorroleinenablingGDPtogrowovertime.TheexamplesofirrigatedagricultureinPakistan,IndiaandthewesternUnitedStatesarecasesinpoint.Electricpower,asaninputtoindustrialdevelopment,isalsoanimportantsectorinLDCs,particularlyforthemiddleincomecountries.Ascomparedwithagriculture,however,powerproductionisnotasdependentuponabundantwaterresourcessincesubstitutessuchasthermalgenerationaremorereadilyavailable.Transportationissimilarinthatwhere,inagivencountry,navigablewatercoursesdonotexistotherformsoftransportationcanbedeveloped.Infact,theuseofwater-intensivemethodsofpowerproductionandtransportationmightnotbetheleastcostinvestmentevenwherethewaterresourcesexist.
Despitethesereservations,anddespitethecomplexityoftheeconomicgrowthprocess,onecouldhypothesizethatthereisacorrelationbetweentheabundanceofwaterresourcesandthelong-termgrowthpotentialofeconomies.Inordertotestthishypothesisinabroadway(infact,theinversehypothesisofnocorrelationistestedbythestatisticalmethodused)datawerecollectedonthewaterresourcesandGDPgrowthratesof26countries.Sixvariablesrelatingtohydrologicalcharacteristicsofthecountrieswereusedasproxiesfortheabundanceofwaterresources.Thecountriesselectedforthesecalculationswerechosenprimarilyonthebasisofavailabledataonwaterresources.TheyincludedfiveAfricancountries,elevenSouthandEastAsiancountries,andtenCentralorSouthAmericancountries.
Threevariableswereusedtotrytocapturetheeffectofwaterresourcesonagriculturaldevelopment.Thesewerethemeanannualrun-off,thetotalmeanprecipitation,andthemeanannualrainfall.Thefirsttwoofthesecanberelatedtoirrigatedagriculture,whereasthethirdcouldcapturethewaterinputforrainfedagriculture.Inordertocorrectfordifferencesincountrysizethefirsttwowerescaledbythelandareaofthecountry.Analysisofvariancetests(alsocalledFtests)wereconductedusingthesethreemeasuresofwaterresourcesandtheannualaveragerealgrowthrateinGDPoverthepzriod1950-1970.Thisperiodwaschosentorepresentalong-termtrend,undisturbedbymajorwarsorthepetroleumpriceincreases.Abetterdependentvariablewouldhavebeenthegrowthrateoftheagriculture(and,later,transportationandpower)sectoralone,butsuchdatawerenotavailableformanyofthesamplecountries).TheFratiosproducedareshowninTableIwhereF*isthehurdlevalueforsignificance.Innocasewastheresultsignificantatthe95percentconfidencelevel.Thisdoesnotmean,ofcourse,thatwaterresourcesarenotanimportantdeterminantofagriculturalproduction.However,itdoesindicatethatthevariablesusedintheanalysiswerenotsufficientlysensitiveproxiestocapturetherealeffect,orotherdeterminantsofagriculturalproductionvariedacrossthedatasampleandtheireffectsoutweighedthoseofdifferingwaterresources.
Theanalysisshouldbefurtherqualifiedsincetheextenttowhichthemeanannualrun-offorthetotalmeanprecipitationisactuallycapturedandutilizedforirrigationisnotfullyknown.TheanalysisofthepotentialeffectofmaximizedutilizationonthegrowthofGDPhasnotbeenattempted.
Theeffectofwaterresourcesondevelopmentofthetransportationsectorwastestedusingadummyvariablewhichtookthevalueofoneifacountryhadatleastonenavigableriverinoronitsboundaries,andzeroifitdidnot.Thestatisticobtainedfromthistest,asshowninTableI,alsowasnotsignificantatthe95percentlevelofconfidence.
Twomeasuresofwater’simpactonpowerdevelopmentwereemployed.Thefirstwastheinstalledhydro-capacityforpowergeneration(in1968)scaledbycountry’sGDP.Thisscalingwasfeltnecessarytocorrectfordifferencesintotalpowerrequirementsamongcountriesofdifferingeconomicsizes.Thesecondvariablescaledthetotalinstalledhydro-capacitybythetotalgeneratingcapacityofthecountry.Thusitrepresentedthepercentageoftotalpowergenerationsuppliedbyhydrologicalresources.Theaveragepercentageforthe26countrysamplewas43percent.Itispossiblethatthismeasurecouldshowaperverseeffectifhydroresourcesaredevelopedfirstandthefastergrowingcountrieshavealreadymovedtothermalinvestment.Again,neitherFratiowassignificant.
Thenegativeresultsfromthesesimplestatisticaltestsshouldnotbetoosurprising.Asimple,one-dimensionaltestwasusedbecauseofthepaucityofcomparabledataonwaterresources,andbecauseitcouldsupplyafirstscreeningofanyimportantcorrelations.However,theinfluenceofalloftheexcludedvariablesinsuchasimpleanalysisisobviouslyconsiderable.Inaddition,suchatestimpliesthatthehypothesizedcorrelationismonotonicwhereasthepresenceof“toomuch”water(forexample,Bangladesh)couldbejustasdetrimentaltodevelopmentastoolittle.Theregularityofprecipitationmaybemoreimportantthanitsaveragelevel.Forallofthesereasonsonecannotconcludemuch.
TABLEI
AnalysisofVarianceTestson20YearGDPGrowthRate
Anotherwayofassessingtheeffectofwaterresourcesonacountr
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