CHINAS IMPACT ON BRAZILS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY.docx
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CHINAS IMPACT ON BRAZILS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY.docx
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CHINASIMPACTONBRAZILSECONOMICDEVELOPMENTANDDEVELOPMENTSTRATEGY
CHINA’SIMPACTONBRAZIL’SECONOMICDEVELOPMENTANDDEVELOPMENTSTRATEGY
[A]Introduction
SinceChinastarteditseconomicreformprocessin1978,thecountryhasgraduallyincreaseditsparticipationintheglobaleconomy.Thishascontributedtoachangedworldmarketcontextandhasimpactondevelopmentincountriesatalllevelsofdevelopment.RecentlyChinapassedJapanintermsofeconomicsizeandithasthusbecomethesecondlargesteconomyintheworld.Projectionssuggestthatitwillbecomethelargesteconomyintheworldwithinaforeseeablefuture.Accordingtoonerecentprojection,China’sGDPinnominaltermswouldbesignificantlylargerthantheUSeconomyby2050(PricewaterhouseCoopers,2011).ThisimpliesthatweshouldexpectChina’simpactontheworldeconomyandontheconditionsfordevelopmentinindividualcountriestocontinuerising.
ThispaperanalyzesChina’simpactonBrazil’seconomicdevelopmentaswellasBrazil’sdevelopmentstrategiesinthecontextofachangingworldeconomyandChina’seconomicrise.
China’simpactoneconomicdevelopmentofdifferentcountriesandregionsintheworldisarelativelyunexploredsubject,butithasbeengettingmoreattentioninrecentyearsasChina’seconomyhascontinueditshighlydynamicgrowthpath,evenaftertheinternationalfinancialcrisisthatbrokeoutintheUnitedStates,which,asthecyclicalcentreoftheworldeconomy,sentshockwavesthroughouttheworld.AlthoughChinawasaffectedbytheinternationalfinancialcrisis,whatstandsoutisthecapacityofChinatomaintaineconomicgrowthratesatcloseto10%ayear.This,alongwiththerelativesuccessofIndiaandotherAsiananddevelopingcountriesispartofapatternthatappearstobegradually,butwithincreasingspeed,changingthedistributionoftheglobaleconomicproductandthereforealsotheglobalbalanceofeconomicpower.Atthesametime,imbalancesininternationaltradeandfinancialrelationsfurthercementthetendencyofChina’sincreasingeconomicweightandpower.Therefore,China’simpactontheworldeconomyshouldonlybeexpectedtogrow,andstudiesthatseektograspthepotentialconsequencesofthisdevelopmentandtoanalyzehowdifferentnationsrespondtothissituationarecalledfor.InthiscontextBrazilisanimportantcasetostudy,asitisthebiggestWesterndevelopingeconomyandthelargesteconomyinthesemi-peripheryandtheLatinAmericanregion.
AfterthisintroductionthepaperdiscussesmethodologicalissuesregardingtheanalysisofChina’seconomicimpactonothercountriesemphasizingitsimpactondevelopingcountries.ThisleadstotheanalysisofChina’simpactonBrazil’seconomicdevelopmentanddevelopmentstrategies.Itfocusesontheperiodfrom1999until2011dividingthisperiodupintotwosub-periods,namely1999-2008and2008-2011.Thechoiceof1999asthestartingpointfortheanalysisisexplainedbythechangedpanoramathatopenedupforBrazilianeconomicdevelopmentafteritsdevaluationin1999aswellasbyanewawarenessinBrazilofChina’sgrowingcentralityintheglobaleconomy.ThenewpanoramaforBraziliandevelopmentin1999wasusedconstructivelyandBrazilexperiencedasuccessfulperiodcharacterizedbyeconomicstabilizationandgrowthuntilthefinancialcrisisbrokeoutin2008changingthecontextoftheworldeconomysignificantly.
Methodologicalconsiderations
China’simpactonthedevelopmentofothercountriesisgainingincreasingacademicinterest.Itisalsoacontroversialissue,oratleastanissuethatdoesnotcommandconsensusamongstanalysts.SomeanalystsseeChina’simpactasmainlybenignorasmainlynegative,ortheyeitheremphasizethechallengesChinaposesforBraziliandevelopmentorthepossibilitiesthatariseforBrazilinitsrelationstoChina.CornejoandNavarroGarcía(2010:
98)taketheviewthatChinaisneitheraproblemnorasolutionfromtheperspectiveofBrazilianeconomicdevelopmentpossibilities.Theemphasisonrisks/challengesandopportunitiesisausefulfirstmethodologicaldeviceasitasksoftheanalysttodistinguishbetweentodifferentformsofpotentialimpact,onenegativeandonepositive,atthesametimethatitimplicitlysuggeststhatBrazil’sownresponsesandstrategiesinthecontextofChina’sriseandBrazil’sowndevelopmentsituationisimportant.Thus,impactsarenotautomatic.InsteadtheyarefilteredthroughBrazil’sownchoices.AsDeepakNayyar(2008:
92-3)arguesinastudyontheeconomicimpactofChinaandIndiaonotherdevelopingcountriestheimpact‘willdependonhowrealityunfolds’and‘onthenatureofChina’sandIndia’sinteractionwithdevelopingcoutries,justasitwoulddependuponwhatdevelopingcountriesdotomaximizethebenefitsandminimizethecostsassociatedwiththeriseofChinaandIndiaintheworldeconomy’.
ThereareanumberofmethodologicaldifficultiesinassessingChina’simpactontheeconomicdevelopmentofothercountries.Onemajordifficultyisthatagiveneconomicdevelopmentinagivencountry,sayBrazil,generallycanbeexplainedbymultiplecausalmechanismsandfactors.Thismeans,forinstance,thatitishardtodisentanglehowmuchorexactlywhatkindofimpactcanbeattributedtoChinaandhowmuchshouldbeattributedforinstancetoothercountries,toBrazil’sownchoicesinitsdevelopmentstrategicallyorientedactionsandtopotentialconstraintsonBrazil’seconomicdevelopmentcausedbypathdependentfactorssuchasforeigndebtandthepublicdebt.
InNayyar’sanalysisreferredtoabove,hesuggeststhatitispossibletodistinguishbetweencompetitiveandcomplementaryfactorsfordevelopingcountriesrisingfromChina’sandIndia’srise.Inpointingtowardscompetitivefactors,heargues,forinstancethatitisplausibletoarguethatotherdevelopingcountrieswillexperienceanegativeimpactonmanufacturingexportsfromChinaandIndia,butthatthisimpactcannotreallybeproven(Nayyar,2008:
91).
Inotherwords,methodologicaldifficultiesmeanthatthepresentanalysiswillnotbeabletoproveacertainimpactfromChinaonBrazil’seconomicdevelopment.InsteadtheapproachistointerpretChina’simpactonBrazil’seconomicdevelopmentinananalysisthatfocusesoncompetitiveaswellascomplementaryfactorsthatposerisksandopportunitiesforBrazilwhichareaddressedbyandfiltersthroughBrazil’sownstrategicchoicesinproducingdevelopmentoutcomesinapath-dependentsituationthatitselfmustbeaddressedbyBrazil.Furthermore,theanalysisdistinguishesbetweenpotentialorrealshort-termimpactsandlong-termimpacts.
[A]Analysis
IntheanalysisIfocusonrisksandopportunitiesforBrazilemergingfromChina’sriseaswellashowBrazilrespondstotheserisksandopportunitiesthatareunderstoodinthecontextoftheglobaleconomyandofBrazil’sowndevelopmentsituation.Theanalysisfocusesontheperiodfrom1999anduntilthepresent(2011)andseekstodiscerndevelopmentsinChina’simpactoverthisperiodaswellastodiscusspotentiallong-termimpacts.
Thereareanumberofpotentiallyrelevantfactorsthatcouldbeexplored.However,basedonempiricalknowledgetheanalysiswillemphasizetwofactors,namelyimpactsarisingfromgrowingChinesedemandforBrazilianexportsandChinesecompetitivepressuresinthemanufacturingsectorbothintheBrazilianhomemarketandinthirdmarkets.Apartfromthesefactors,consideredofkeyimportance,theanalysiswillincludeissuesofmutualFDIaswellascompetitionforingoingFDI,andalsocooperationinresearchandtechnology.Theanalysiswillalsobrieflyrefertofinancingissues.Theissueofaidisdeemedirrelevantintherelationshipbetweenthetwocountries,althoughtheaidpoliciesofthetwocountriesinthirdcountriesmayinfacthavesomerelevance..
Apartfromthesedirectlyeconomicissues,theanalysiswillalsoexploreBrazil’snationaldevelopmentstrategiesinordertodiscusshowitrespondstotheglobalcontextanditsowndevelopmentsituation.Finally,theanalysiswilldiscusstherelevanceofbilateralrelationsaswellasrelationsbetweenChinaandBrazilinthemultilateralarenaastheseissuesarepartoftheoverallpictureofChina’simpactonBraziliandevelopmentanddevelopmentstrategy.
[B]ThePeriod1999-2008
Brazil’sfinancialinstabilityinthelate1990sledthecountrytodevalueitscurrencyinearly1999.Devaluationactuallywentagainstthestrategyfollowedfrom1993ofusingarelativelystablenominalexchangerateasananchorforpricesandasameanstostabilizetheeconomy.However,theexperienceoffinancialinstability,firstin1994-5andthenin1997and1998-9showedthatthestrategy,althoughsuccessfulintermsofpricestabilizationhadnotassuredoverallstabilizationduetogrowingexternaldeficits.
Inthedevelopmentstrategiesofthe1990semphasishadbeenonmacroeconomicorthodoxyalongwithaneo-liberalstrategyofeconomicopennessandprivatizationinwhichthetraditionalmarketsoftheUnitedStatesandEuropealongwithopenintegrationinMercosurwerestrategicallyprioritized.TherealizationthatBrazilhadnotbeenabletolaybehinditselftheproblemofexternaleconomicvulnerabilitythathadbeenthekeyfactorbehindeconomicstagnationandinstabilitybetween1980and1993ledtosomerethinkingofBrazil’sdevelopmentstrategy.TheCardosogovernmentinitsnationaldevelopmentplan2000-03putstrongeremphasisonrelationswithSouthAmericaandthebiggestemergingmarketsincludingChina(Lessa,CoutoandFarias,2009,95-6).ThisnewtendencywasdeepenedsignificantlywiththeadventofthePT-ledcoalitiongovernmentthat
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