Final paper reporttourist prediction.docx
- 文档编号:2815783
- 上传时间:2022-11-15
- 格式:DOCX
- 页数:16
- 大小:277.79KB
Final paper reporttourist prediction.docx
《Final paper reporttourist prediction.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《Final paper reporttourist prediction.docx(16页珍藏版)》请在冰豆网上搜索。
Finalpaperreporttouristprediction
StudyonthePredictionofTouristAttractionsbasedontheBaiduIndex:
ACaseStudyoftheForbiddenCity
Course:
Englishfortourism
1:
Number:
51153902033Name:
杨舒婷Major:
Geography
2:
Number:
51150601169Name:
张教根Major:
Math
3:
Number:
51150601151Name:
胡夏朕Major:
Math
4:
Number:
51150601168Name:
袁东Major:
Math
5:
Number:
51150601194Name:
涂欢Major:
Math
6:
Number:
51153903030Name:
朱小静Major:
Ecology
Adviser:
严文庆
2016年6月
Catalog
Abstract:
..........................................................................................................................................1
1:
Introduction...................................................................................................................................2
2:
Researchstatusreview...................................................................................................................3
3:
Empiricalanalysis..........................................................................................................................5
3.1:
TheselectionofBaidukeywordwiththedata......................................................................5
3.2:
RelationshipbetweenWebsearchdataandtheactualdata................................................6
3.3Establishmentofpredictionmodelandanalysis..................................................................9
3.3.1:
establishmentofpredictionARMAmodelandanalysis.........................................9
3.3.2:
Establishmentandpredictionanalysisofautoregressivedistributedlagmodel..11
4:
Conclusion..................................................................................................................................12
5:
Refercences...................................................................................................................................14
StudyonthePredictionofTouristAttractionsbasedontheBaiduIndex:
ACaseStudyoftheForbiddenCity
AbstractTouristsoverflowingduringthe“GoldenWeek”isnotanuncommonsituationinChinatoday.Predictingtouristflowsissignificantfortouristattractionsmanagementandplanning.Internetsearchrecordscanreflectconcernsandinterestsofpotentialtourists,andprovidealargevolumeofunstructuredorsemi-structureddataforstudyingtourismeconomicbehavior.ThispaperproposesanovelapproachforpredictingtouristflowbasedontheBaiduIndex,whichprovidessearchhistorycontainingdifferentkeywordsonadailybasisdatingbackto2006.Inthispaper,weconductacasestudyusingsearchdatarelatedtotheForbiddenCityfromtheBaiduIndexandstatisticaldataoftouristflowsintheForbiddenCity.Firstly,usingtheeconometricco-integrationtheoryandGrangercausalityanalysisthispaperfindsrelationshipsbetweentheinternetsearchdataandtheactualtouristflow,whichindicatesapositivecorrelationbetweenthem.Then,thispapercomparesanalysisresultsobtainedbytwokindsofpredictivemodelswith(ARDL)orwithout(ARMA)consideringBaiduIndex.TheARDLmodelimprovesthepredictionaccuracyofthetrainingsampleby12.4%,andthetestingsampleby14.5%.OurapproachcanpredictthenumberofdailyvisitorsoftheForbiddenCityusingtheoneortwodayslaggingdatafromtheBaiduIndex,whilethepreviousforecastingmethodrequiresdataofamuchlongerperiod.Inconclusion,itimprovesthetimelinessandaccuracyoftheprediction,andprovidestourismmanagementdepartmentswithbetterevidencefordecision-making.
Keywords:
BaiduIndex;touristattractions;co-integration;autoregressivemovingaveragemodel(ARMA);autoregressivedistributedlagmodel(ARDL)
1.Introduction
WiththeboomingdevelopmentoftourisminChina,thereisalargeincreaseinnumberofbothdomesticandforeignvisitorstosomefamoustouristcityandscenicspots.EspeciallyduringGoldenWeek,suchasNationalDay,LaborDay,severaltouristattractionsareovercrowdedandfarbeyondthecarryingcapacityofthescenicarea.Thereisalistoftop10spotsweshouldnevervisitduringGoldenWeekfromNeteaseNews,includingtheForbiddenCity,HuangshanMountain,Dali-Lijiang,JiuzhaigouNationalPark,etc.Thereareevensometragediescausedbycrowd.Forexample,in2012,duringtheNationalDayholiday,thekillingcausedbythousandsofstrandedvisitorsinHuashanMountaincreatedagreatstirinourcountry.Inordertoavoidtragedyandprovideabettertravelenvironment,amoreaccuratepredictionoftouristflowscombinedwiththecarryingcapacityofthescenicspotisparticularlyurgentandsignificantformakingtimelyarrangementsandreasonableplanning.Therefore,thekeyproblemofourresearchishowtopredictvisitornumbersofscenicspotsmorescientifically.
Atpresent,mostexistingpredictionmethodsrelyonwell-stru
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- Final paper reporttourist prediction