四.docx
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四.docx
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四
Ⅲ.外文翻译
外文原稿之一
GrowinginequalityandpovertyinChina
(1)
LuciaHANMER
DepartmentforInternationalDevelopment(DFID),London,UK
ChinaEconomicReview15(2004)145-163
Abstract
Chinahasachievedhigheconomicgrowthforover20yearsbutstillhasasizeablenumberofpeoplelivinginpoverty.Usinglargehouseholdsurveydata,thispaperattemptstopresentacomprehensivepictureandidentifythemaindeterminantsofpovertyinboththeurbanandruralsectors.Itconcludesthatdespiterisingurbanpovertyinrecentyears,ruralpovertyisstillpredominantinChina.Theslowprogressinreducingpovertyhasbeencausedbyrisinginequality,particularlytheurban–ruraldivideandinterregionalinequality.Insharpcontrasttothegovernment’soptimisminpovertyreduction,thispapershowsthatpovertyinChinaisstillseriousandhasbecomeincreasinglymoredifficulttoreduce.AlthoughChinamayeasilymeettheinternationaldevelopmenttargetofreducingpovertybyhalffrom1990to2015,thebattleagainstpovertyisfarfromover,evenby2015.
Keywords:
Inequality;Poverty;China
1.Introduction
EconomicgrowthinChinahasbeenimpressivebyinternationalstandards.Althoughitisthemostpopulouscountryintheworld,Chinahasoutperformedthemajorityofcountriesinthepasttwodecades.Remarkableeconomicgrowthhelpsimprovepeople’slivingstandardsandreducepoverty.
Basedonofficialstatistics,thetotalnumberofruralpoordeclinedfrom270millionin1978to26millionby2000(People’sDaily,2000),buttheofficialfiguresareques-tionable.Thispaperestimatesthatthereareupto5.5–15millionurbanpoorand103–187millionruralpoorin1998.ThebattleagainstpovertyisfarfromoverinChina,andnewgroupsofpoorpopulationareemerging,makingpovertyreductionmoredifficultinthefuturethanbefore.
Povertyhasbeenconsideredtobeprimarilyaruralphenomenonduetothehugepercapitaincomedisparitybetweentheruralandurbanpopulations.Forhistoricalreasons,Chinesepeasantshavebeendisadvantagedbytheurban-biasedpolicy,whichseverelyrestrictsurban–ruralmigrationandprovidessubsidiestotheurbanpopulationattheexpenseofitsruralcounterpart.
However,recentresearchshowsthaturbanpovertyexistsinasignificantscaleduetomassiveunemploymentandurban–ruralmigration.Meng(2001)showsthat17.5millionstate-ownedenterprise(SOE)workersweremaderedundantbytheendof1998.Manyoftheseunemployedworkersmaybetrappedinpovertyduetolackofincome.Millionsofruralresidentsworkinginthecitiesmayalsoliveinpovertyastheyeitherengageinlowpayjobsorfaceunemployment.
OneofthemostdifficultproblemsfacedbyresearchersonpovertystudyinChinaishowtocomparethepovertysituationsoftwohighlyheterogeneouspopulations(ruralandurban).Apartfromthehugedisparityofpercapitaurban–ruralincomes,comparabledataareusuallydifficulttoobtain,notbecausetheyarenotavailable,butbecausethestatisticalauthorityisunwillingtoprovidethemtoindependentresearchers.
Thispaperisthefirstattemptintheliteraturetostudyurbanandruralpovertyatthesametimeusinghouseholdleveldata.Theurbandatacoveralltheprovincesin1998.Theruraldatacover19provincesin1995and1998.Suchcompletedatasetshaveneverbeenpossibleinanyotherstudies.
Itisconcludedthatdespiterisingurbanpoverty,ruralpovertyisstillapredominantproblem.Theslowprogressinpovertyreductionhasbeenduetorisinginequality,particularlytheurban–ruraldivideandinterregionalinequality.
Therestofthispaperisorganisedasfollows.Section2estimatestheincidenceofurbanpovertyandstudiestheeffectsofincomeandinequalityonpoverty.Section3estimatestheincidenceofruralpovertyandstudiestheeffectsofincomeandinequalityonpoverty.Section4analysesandcomparesurban–ruralinequality.Section5hassomesimulationsonpovertyreductioninruralChina.Section6concludesandmakespolicyrecommendations.
2.Incidenceofurbanpovertyanditsresponsetoincomeandinequality
Thissectionusestheurbanhouseholdsurveydatain1998foralltheprovinces.Thedatasetcontains17,000householdsin31provinces.Toestimatetheincidenceofpoverty,thefirststepistodefineanurbanpovertyline.Becausetherearesignificantdifferencesacrossregionsinprices,consumptionpatterns,andtastes,itisusefultoestimateapovertylineforeachindividualregion.However,wecannothaveaseparatepovertylineforeachindividualcitybecausetherearenotenoughobservationsineachcitytohavearobustestimateofapovertyline.Instead,weopttoestimatepovertylinesforindividualprovinces.
FollowingRavallion(1994),theestimationofpovertylinestartsfromthedefinitionofafoodpovertyline.Itthenevaluatesthebasicnonfoodcomponent.Dependingonhowthebasicnonfoodcomponentisevaluated,twopovertylines,i.e.,lowandhigh,areestimatedforeachregion.
Abasicneedbasketoffooditemsisdefinedtoevaluatethecostoffoodconsumption.Inthispaper,thepoorest20%ofhouseholdsrankedbypercapitaincomeareconsideredtobetherelevantgroupwhoseconsumptionpatternisclosetothatofthehouseholdswhomayliveinpoverty.Asaresult,allthefooditemswithcompletepriceandquantityinformationfromthisgroupofhouseholdsarelisted.ThefoodquantitiesareconvertedintocalorieequivalentsusinganutritionalconversiontableprovidedbytheNationalNutritionalSociety.Theunitcostofcaloriesconsumedisthencomputed.Thisunitcostmultipliedby2100(theminimumrequirementofcaloriepercapitaperday)and365(thenumberofdaysinayear)yieldsthevalueofafoodpovertyline.Atthenationallevel,thefoodpovertylinein1998is1390yuanpercapitaperyear,whichis23.63%ofthenationalaveragepercapitaincome.
Thevaluesoffoodpovertylinesvarysubstantiallyacrossprovinces,rangingfrom941yuaninQinghaito2361yuaninShanghai.Thisimpliesthatthesameamountoffoodenergycosts2.5timesasmuchinShanghaiasinQinghai.Thedifferencesinthevaluesoffoodpovertylinesreflecttheextenttowhichfoodpricesdifferspatially.
Givenafoodpovertyline,denotedbyZFforanyparticularregion,thelowandhighpovertylinesforthatregioncanbederivedfromrunningthefollowingregression.
(1)
wherethesubscriptjdenotesahousehold,Sistheratiooffoodexpendituresoverincome,xisfoodexpenditures,andnisthenumberofhouseholdmembers.
OncetheparametersinEq.
(1)areestimated,thelowandhighpovertylinescanbeevaluatedbythefollowingformula.
Thelowpovertyline,denotedby:
Thehighpovertyline,denotedby:
whereln(n)isthelogarithmofaveragehouseholdsize.Thesameregressionisrepeatedforallprovinces.Thenationalpovertylinesaretheweightedaveragesoftheprovinciallinesbyprovincialpopulationsinsteadofthesurveysamplepopulations.
In1998,thetotalurbanpopulationwas312.4millionpeople.Theaveragepercapitadisposableincomewas5633yuanperyear.Thelowandhighpovertylinesare,respectively,1869and2316yuan(Table1).Theseare32%and39%ofpercapitaincome,respectively.Likethefoodpovertylines,thevaluesoflowandhighpovertylinesvarysignificantlyacrossprovinces.Theevaluationsoffoodpovertylinesreflectconsumers’tastesandconsumptionpatternsassuggestedbyRavallion(1994)andDeaton(1997).
Withtheprovincialpovertylines,theincidenceofurbanpoverty,measuredastheproportionofurbanpeoplelivingatorbelowthepovertylines,canbederivedforeachindividualprovinceandforthewholecountry.Thepovertyheadcountratesbyprovincederivedfromthe1998urbanhouseholdsurveydataarepresentedinTable1.
Theincidenceofpovertyvarieswidelyacrossprovinces,rangingfromlessthan1%inBeijingandGuangdongtoover11%inTibet,Shaanxi,andNingxia.Ingeneral,thepovertyincidenceinthecentralandwestregionsissignificantlyhigherthanintheeastregion.Theeastregionaccountsfor46.8%ofthetotalurbanpopulationbutonly28–30%ofthetotalnumberofpoor.Thewestregionaccountsfor17.5%ofthetotalurbanpopulationbut23–28%ofthetotalnumberofpoor.
Theremarkabledifferencesintheincidenceofpovertyamongprovincesarelargelyexplainedbytheinterprovincialincomeinequality.Forexample,percapitaincomeinGuangdongis11,975yuan,whichis3.5timesaslargeasthepercapitaincomeofthelowestincomeprovince,Qinghai.
Urbanpovertyissensitivetotwomaindeterminants:
percapitameanincomeandinequality.IfinequalityismeasuredbytheGiniindex,wecanrunthefollowingsimpleregressiontoderivethepovertyelasticities.
Thereare31observationsfrom31provincesin1998.Becausethepovertyincidenceforeachprovinceismeasuredbybothlowandhighpovertylines,theregressionmodelcanberunintwodifferentversions.Thefirstusesthepovertyincidencemeasuredbythelowpovertylines.Thesecondusesthepovertyincidencemeasuredbythehighpovertylines.TheregressionresultsarereportedinTable2.
Alltheestimatedcoefficientsarestatisticallysignificantbelowthe5%significancelevel.Theincidencesofpoverty,eithermeasuredbytheloworhighpovertyline,arehighlysensitivetothemeanincomesandincomeinequality.Sincethemodelisspecifiedinadouble-logform,theestimatedcoefficientsarethecorrespondingelasticityofpovertyincidencewithrespecttotheindependentvariables.Forexample,theelasticityofpovertymeasuredbythelowpovertylinewithrespecttomeanincomeis_1.572.Thismeansthatifmeanincomerisesby10%,
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