宏观经济学课件(英文版)5.ppt
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宏观经济学课件(英文版)5.ppt
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nChapter5nConditionalConvergenceandLong-RunEconomicGrowth1ConditionalConvergenceinPractice2ConditionalConvergenceinPracticenThreevariablesthatinfluencedk*:
nSavingrate,s.nTechnologylevel,A.nPopulationgrowthrate,n.3ConditionalConvergenceinPracticenAbroaderviewofthetechnologylevel,A.nProductivitydependsonthedegreeofmarketefficiency.nGreaterinternationalopennesstendstoraiseproductivity.nProductivitytendstoriseifgovernmentsdobetteratmaintainingprivatepropertyrights,ifthejudicialsystemrunsmoresmoothly,andifofficialcorruptiondeclines.4RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowthnk/k=k(0),k*.n(-)(+)nTheideaistomeasureanarrayofvariables,eachofwhichinfluencesacountryssteady-statecapitalperworker,k*.5RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowthnFirst,ifweholdfixedk*(byholdingfixedthevariablesthatinfluencek*),thegrowthrateofcapitalperworker,k/k,shouldexhibitconvergence.nThatis,forgivenk*,alowerk(0)shouldmatchupwithahigherk/k.nSecond,anyvariablethatraisesorlowersk*shouldcorrespondinglyraiseorlowerk/kforgivenk(0).6RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowth7RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowthnHoldconstantalistofvariablesthatinfluencek*.nameasureofthesavingrate;nthefertilityrateforthetypicalwoman(whichinfluencespopulationgrowth);nsubjectivemeasuresofmaintenanceoftheruleoflawanddemocracy;nthesizeofgovernment,asgaugedbytheshareofgovernmentconsumptionexpendituresinGDP;8RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowthntheextentofinternationalopenness,measuredbythevolumeofexportsandimports;nchangesinthetermsoftrade,whichistheratioofpricesofexportedgoodstopricesofimportedgoods;nmeasuresofinvestmentineducationandhealth;ntheaveragerateofinflation,whichisanindicatorofmacroeconomicpolicy.9RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowthnGrowthrateofrealGDPperpersonrisesinresponsetonahighersavingrate,nlowerfertility,nbettermaintenanceoftheruleoflaw,nsmallergovernmentconsumption,ngreaterinternationalopenness,nimprovementinthetermsoftrade,ngreaterquantityandqualityofeducation,nbetterhealth,andlowerinflation.10RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowthnDemocracyhasalesscleareffectifacountrystartsfromatotalitariansystem,increasesindemocracyseemtofavoreconomicgrowth.nHowever,afteracountryreachesamid-rangeofdemocracy(characteristicinrecentnyearsofIndonesia,Turkey,andseveralplacesinLatinAmerica),furtherdemocratizationseemstoreducegrowth.11RecentResearchontheDeterminantsofEconomicGrowthnNumerousadditionalvariablesthatinfluencegrowth.nscopeoffinancialmarkets,nthedegreeofincomeinequality,ntheextentofofficialcorruption,ntheroleofcolonialandlegalorigins,nTheintensityofreligiousparticipationandbeliefs.12ExamplesofConditionalConvergencenBy1946,Japan,Germany,France,andothercountriesinEuropesufferedsharpreductionsinphysicalcapital,whichresultedinalowstartingvalueofcapitalperworker,k(0).nInthe1960s,manyEastAsiancountries,suchasSouthKoreaandTaiwan,werepoorand,therefore,hadlowvaluesofk(0).13Long-RunEconomicGrowthnSolowmodeldoesnotexplainhowcapitalandrealGDPperworker,kandy,growinthelongrun.nThemodeldoesnotexplainhowrealGDPperpersongrewataround2%peryearforwelloveracenturyintheUnitedStatesandotherrichcountries.14Long-RunEconomicGrowthnWeallowfortechnologicalprogressinthesenseofcontinuinggrowthofthetechnologylevel,A.nAgrowsinanexogenousmanner.15ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapitalnThediminishingaverageproductofcapital,y/k,playsamajorroleinthetransitionphaseoftheSolowgrowthmodel.nk/k=s(y/k)(+n).16ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapitalnInterpretcapitalbroadly,especiallytoincludehumancapitalintheformsofformaleducation,on-the-jobtraining,andhealth.nIncludeformsofcapitalthatareoftenownedbygovernment,suchasinfrastructurecapitalusedfortransportationandutilities.17ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapitalnIfwedoublenotonlymachinesandbuildingsbutalsohumanandinfrastructurecapital,realGDPmayroughlydouble.nIfrawlaborisnotacriticalinputtoproduction,capitalsmarginalandaverageproductsmaynotdeclineascapitalaccumulates.18ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital19ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapitalny/k=A.nk/k=sA(+n).20ModelswithConstantAverageProductofCapital21ExogenousTechnologicalProgressnAllowforcontinuingincreasesinA.nThisregularprocessofimprovementsinthetechnologyiscalledtechnologicalprogress.nA/A=g.22ExogenousTechnologicalProgress23ExogenousTechnologicalProgress24ExogenousTechnologicalProgress25Exogenou
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