港口的效率及国际贸易港口的效率作为一个决定性的海洋运输成本外文翻译.docx
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港口的效率及国际贸易港口的效率作为一个决定性的海洋运输成本外文翻译.docx
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港口的效率及国际贸易港口的效率作为一个决定性的海洋运输成本外文翻译
外文翻译
原文
PortEfficiencyandInternationalTrade:
PortEfficiencyasaDeterminantofMaritimeTransportCosts
MaterialSource:
MaritimeEconomics&Logistics(2003)5Author:
RicardoJ SánchezandGordon Wilmsmeier
RicardoJSánchez,JanHoffmann,AlejandroMicco,GeorginaVPizzolitto,MartínSgutandGordonWilmsmeier
AustralUniversity,Argentina
EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericanandtheCaribbean,Santiago,Chile
Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,Washington,USA.E-mail:
ricardo.sanchez@
Abstract
Thispaperexaminesthedeterminantsofwaterbornetransportcosts,withparticularemphasisontheefficiencyatportlevel.Itsmaincontributionis
(1)togeneratestatisticallyquantifiablemeasuresofportefficiencyfromasurveyofLatinAmericancommonuserports,and
(2)toestimateamodelofwaterbornetransportcosts,includingthepreviouslygeneratedportefficiencymeasuresasexplanatoryvariables.Inordertoincorporatedifferentportefficiencymeasuresfromthesurvey,weuseprincipalcomponentanalysis(PCA).Ourestimationsshowthatthespecifiedvariablesinthemodelexplainagreatproportionofthechangeinwaterbornetransportcosts.Withregardtoportefficiency,theresultisespeciallyimportantforoneoftheportefficiencymeasuresobtainedthroughPCAwithanestimatedelasticityequivalenttothatofdistance.Otherexplanatoryvariableswhichshowtobestatisticallysignificantarethemonthlylinerserviceavailability,distance,andthegoods'valueperton.Theconclusionsarerelevantforpolicymakersastheyshowandquantifythatportefficiencyisarelevantdeterminantofacountry'scompetitiveness–andinthisrespect,therestillexistbigdifferencesamongLatinAmericancountries.Unlikemostotherrelevantvariables,portefficiencycanbeinfluencedbypublicpolicies.
Keywords:
Portefficiency,multivariateanalysis,freightcosts,LatinAmerica
INTRUCTION:
MARITIMETRANSPORTCOSTSANDINTERNATIONALTRADE
Thepaperisorganisedasfollows:
Thischaptercontainsageneralintroductionthatlooksattherelationbetweentransportcostsandinternationaltrade.Inthesecondchapter,principalcomponentsarecomputedfromaLatinAmericanPortsurvey.Thethirdchapterdescribesthemodelandtheestimationresults,followedbytheconclusionandinterpretationofresults.
Theimpactofthecostsoftransportonforeigntradeandeconomicdevelopment
Improvementsininternationaltransportservicesareoneofthemainfeaturesofeconomicglobalisation.Togetherwithprogressintelematics,standardisationandtradeliberalisation,faster,morereliableandcheapertransportservicesarecontributingtotheintegrationofproductionprocessesatthegloballevel.
Internationalfreighthasanimpactontradesimilartocustomstariffsortheexchangerate:
areductioninthecostsoftransportdirectlystimulatesexportsandimports,justasanincreaseintheexchangerate(therateatwhichthenationalcurrencymaybeexchangedagainstanother)makesexportsmorecompetitive,andareductioninnationalcustomstariffslowersthecostsofimports.Spurredbytradeliberalisation,customstariffshavedroppedtolevelswhereinmanycasesanyadditionalreductionwouldnownolongerhaveasignificantimpact.Itisperhapsforthatreasonthatnewandinterestingstudieshavebeenpublishedinrecentyearsanalysingtheimpactoftransportcostsontradepatternsandglobalisedproduction(seeforexampleKumarandHoffmann(2002)foraliteratureoverview).
Theimpactontrade
Thepriceofthevastmajorityoftradedgoodsisexogenousfordevelopingcountries.Iftheshippingofimportsbecomesmoreexpensive,higherpricesensueasaresultoftheincreasedcostofimportedgoods;inthecaseofintermediateandcapitalgoods,thisalsoincreasesthecostsoflocalproduction.Ifexportsbecomedearertoship,theresultisadropinearningsfortheexportingcountryorsimplythelossofamarket,dependingontheelasticityofdemandandtheavailabilityofsubstitutes.Econometricestimatessuggestthatthedoublingofanindividualcountry'stransportcostsleadstoadropinitstradeof80%orevenmore(Hummels,2000;LimaoandVenables,2001).
Qualityversuscosts
Aswithgoods,theproductionoftransportservicesisalsosubjecttotheimpactoftechnologicaladvances.Withtheuseofnewinformationandcommunicationtechnologies,improvementsininfrastructure,andbytakingadvantageofthegrowingrateofcontainerisation,todaythesamefreightandinsurancepertonneofcargocanbuyaquicker,morereliableservicewithlessvariationindeliverytimethanadecadeago.
Inaddition,itisworthnotingthatgreatercommercialdemandsasregardsspeedhaveatthesametimegivenrisetoanincreaseintheshareofairtransportascomparedtomaritimetransport,andmayentailanincreaseintheaveragecostofinternationaltransport.Thefactthattheaveragecostoffreightandinsuranceroseworldwideinthe1990s(seeTable1)shouldnotbeinterpretedasaworseningoftheinternationaltransportsystem,butratherasareflectionofgreateruseofairtransportandimprovementsinothertransportservices.Equivalently,wheninterpretingtheregressionresultspresentedlaterinthispaper,improvedportefficiencydoesnotnecessarilyimplylowertransportcosts,astheusermayberequiredtopayfortheimprovedservice.
Directimpactsversusindirectimpacts
Thedistanceseparatingcountriesimpactsontradebetweenthemindifferentways.Themainmodelsusedtoexplaininternationaltradeflowscanbedescribedas'gravitational':
countriestradewithoneanotherdependingontheirpatternsofproduction,income,andwhethertheybelongtoeconomicblocs,withthedistancebetweenthemalsohavingsomebearing.Thatgivesanadvantagetocountrieslocatedinthe'centerofgravity',andhencethenameofthemodel.Thereisanassumptionofacloselinkbetweendistanceandtransportcosts,whichwouldexplainwhycountriesclosertooneanothertrademorethanwithcountriesfurtheraway.Inpractice,distancemayalsohaveabearingonothercharacteristicsofcountries,whichleadsthemtotrademore.Forinstance,countrieslocatednearertooneanothertendtohavemoresimilarhistories,culturesandlanguages.
Mostimportantly,geographicalclosenessprovidesscopeforalternativemodesoftransporttoseaandair,therebyboostingcompetitionandreducingpricesforservices.Inotherwords,shorterdistancesentaillowercostsandmoretrade.Increasedtradeinturnmakesforeconomiesofscale,leadingtoevenfurtherreductionsintransportcosts.Inthecaseofintra-LatinAmericanseabornetrade,apartialcorrelationcoefficientof-0.463iscalculatedbetweendistanceandthevolumeofbilateraltrade,withacoefficientof+0.178betweendistanceandthecostsoftransportperton.Inotherwords,distancehasitsownbearingsontradeandshouldnotbetakenonlyasaproxyfortransportcosts.
LatinAmerica'sforeigntrade
Intermsofvolume(tonnes),tradeusingairtransportaccountsforbarely0.1–0.6%oftheforeigntradeconductedbythecountriesofLatinAmerica;intermsofvalue(USD),however,thismoderepresentsanywherebetween8%and21%(Table2).Thetablealsoindicatesthatsea-andairbornetransportareusedparticularlyinforeigntradeconductedbyArgentina,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,andPeru,whileinMexico(significanttradewiththeUnitedStates)andUruguay(significanttradewithBrazilandArgentina),theoverlandmodeplaysarelativelygreaterrole.
Airtransport'sshareishigherinlong-distancetrade;accordingly,althoughtotaltradedecreaseswithdistance,thereisvirtuallyzerocorrelation(-0.001)betweendistanceandthevolumeofairbornetrade(estimateforintra-LatinAmericantrade).
Transportcostsofintra-LatinAmericantrade
Forthe10countriesincludedinTable3,ChileanexportstoUruguayhavethehighesttransportcostsasapercentageofthevalueoftrade,followedbyEcuador'sexportstoUruguayandParaguay'stoEcuador.Onaverage,thecountrywiththehighesttransportcostsforitsimportsfromotherLatinAmericancountriesisEcuador,followedbyChile.TradebetweenParaguayandUruguayhasthelowesttransportcosts,followedbythatbetweenArgentinaandUruguay,andArgentinaandBrazil.
Itisnotpossible,usingthesefigures,toreachhastyconclusionsabouttheefficiencyoftherespectivetransportservices,nortoconcludethattransportinonecountryismore'expensive'thaninanother.Forexample,thelowdensityofregularshippingservices(linerservices),togetherwiththenaturalbarrieroftheAndes,appeartobepartofthereasonwhytransportbetweencountriesonthewestandeastcoastsofSouthAmericatendstobemoreexpensivethantransportalongthesamecoast.ItshouldbenotedthatthefiguresinTable3areaveragesthatcoverallmodesoftransportandmanydifferenttypesofgoods.
Theremainderofthispaperwillnowlookinmoredetailintothedeterminantsofthemaritimetransportcosts,withaspecialemphasisontheimpactofportefficiencyindicatorsforcontainerisedcargo.
Measuringportefficiency
Portofshipmentefficiencywasmeasuredbyusingdirectinformationgatheredbywayofextensivequestionnairesasapartofthisresearch.Anumberofpotentiallyexplanatoryvariablesonportefficiencyweremeasured,whichwerethengroupedthroughtheprincipalcomponentanalysis.
Throughthesurvey,weobtainedinformationaboutportactivityfortheyear1999.Thequestionnairesweresentto55portterminals.Responseswerereceivedfrom41portterminalsmainlyhandlinggeneralcontainerisedcargoes.Theseterminals
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