经济危机分析.docx
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经济危机分析.docx
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经济危机分析
银英14-1
组员:
陈芳芳,李吴佳,郑敏
金融学期中论文
TheAnalysis
Of
ThreeFinancialCrisis
Abstract:
Afterlearningtherelativebackgroundsrespectively,wetriedtolookintothedeepreasonsofthesethreefinancialcrisisinthehistory,includingtheTulipBubblehappenedinDutch,theGreatDepressionin1929andFinancialCrisisin2008.Werealizedtherearesomesimilaritiesanddifferencesduringallthefinancialcrisis,fromtheaspectsofbackgrounds,reasons,maincontentsandinfluence.Wehopetheexperienceandlessonswehavegotfromthepastcanhelpoureconomydevelopbetter.
KeyWords:
financialcrisis,stockmarket,government,regulation,investment,banker,value,economy
TheAnalysisofThreeFinancialCrisis
Astonishingparallelscanoftenbefoundinhistory.Afterwatchingthesethreedocumentariesaboutfinancialcrisis,TheTulipBubble,TheGreatDepressionin1929,andInsideJob,wegavethemathoroughanalysisabouttheirbackgrounds,reasonsmainpointsandimpacts,togetsomeconclusionstowardsthesimilaritiesanddifferences.
Inessence,theTulipmaniainNetherlandsinthe17thcenturyissimilartotherecentdevelopmentoftoday’sfinancialmarket,aswellasthegreatdepressionin1929andthefinancialcrisisin2008.Atthattime,NetherlandsheldastrategicstatusintheEuropewithaflourishingoverseastrade.Therefore,citizenslivedarichandstablelife,whilethenationaccumulatedquitemuchwealth.InordertoexpresstheappreciationandadmirationtotheGod,peopletriedtogrowthemostbeautifultuliptoconsecrate.Butastimewentby,thingwentoutofcontrolthatpeoplebecamecrazierandcrazierdrivenbyinterests,whichledtoanirrationalfinancialmarket.Morepeoplethrewthemselvesintothebusinessknowingnothingbutjustfollowingthecrowd.Asaresult,asthequantityofdemandofthetulipwasmuchhigherthanthequantityofsupply,thepricewenthigherandhigher.Thesituationchangeduntilonedaysuddenlynoonewantedtobuythetulipbulbsevenatalowprice,whichmeantthatthetreasurepeoplehadsparednoeffortstogetbecameworthless.Thepanicspreadquickly,especiallyforthosepeoplewhosaddledwithheavydebttojointhistulipinvestmentaimatagreatprofit.Theearlierpeoplegotthenews,thefastertheysoldthetulipbulbs,thesmallerlosttheygot.Fromwhathasbeenmentionedabove,wecanseeitwaspeople’signoranceandblindfollowingthatresulttotheburstoftulipbubble.
AsfortheGreatDepressionin1929,ithappenedafter10yearsoftheWorldWarI,whichbroughttheUSlargeeconomicdevelopmentandthenationbetterlivingconditions.Whenpeopletriedtobuildstockmarketwithapositiveattitudetoearnmoremoney,theycouldneverrealizeitwasanothersourceofdisaster.Duetotheiroveroptimism,moreandmorepeopleboughtstockevenwithliability,becausetheybelievedeveryonecouldgetmuchmorefromthestockmarketaslongashehadprincipal.Unfortunately,nothinginlifeisfree.Thesmallinvestorsneverknewthetruththatalltheirinvestmentsbecamethegamecontrolledbysomeprofessionalspeculators,whicheventuallyflewintothepocketoflargecompanies.Meanwhile,thecloseconnectionbetweenleaderbanksandpoliticiansmadethegovernmentregulationstominimum,sothemarketwasthelawtoitselfandtheinsidedealingwasprevailed.Also,eventhoughsomepoliticiansrecognizedthepotentialdangers,theystillinsistedthatthemarketwouldcorrectitselfratherthanbygovernmentintervention.TheseindividualinvestorsknewnothingabouthowtheWalesStreetworkedorthestockmarkethadalreadybeenoverheating,evenafterthestockmarketfinallycrashed.Consequently,inspiteofthegreatamountofmoneyputintothemarketbythegovernment,itdidn’treallychangethesituation.Thepublicrealizedhowfragilethecreditsystemwasandtotallylosttheirconfidencetowardsthebanksystem,whichdirectlyledtothepubliccountlesswithdrawalofbankdeposit.Ofcourse,theeconomyofthewholenationcrashed.
Aftermorethanhalfofcentury,therearesomemistakeswearestillrepeating,liketheperiodiceconomicproblem—financialcrisisin2008.During1998to2006,ontheonehand,byseveralamendmentfiles,thefinancialmarketgraduallylostitstightregulationfromgovernment.Ontheotherhand,severalhugecompaniesillegallymergedintothelargestfinancialservicecompanyintheworld,whichincreasedinstabilityoftheworldmarket.Bothofthesetworeasonsshouldberesponsibleforthefinalcrisis.Butmoreimportantthingisthat,thewholefinancialmarketwasgreatlyinfluencedorevencontrolledbyasecuritizationfoodchain,includinginvestmentbanks,financialcompanies,insurancecompaniesandratingagency.Besides,forhigherinterests,ratingagencymadewrongjudgetocompaniesandindividuals’assetsappraisalandriskevaluationsothatpeoplewouldgetloaneasilytopurchase.Thiskindoffalseprosperityintherealestateindustryprobablywasthemostdirectpressuretothefinalfinancialcrisis,whichpushedtheruptureofcapitalchaininsubprimemortgagemarket.
Thisisafinancialcrisisaboutcommonstock.In1919,theU.S.wonthevictoryfromWorldWarI,everyone’slifealteredbetter.Patterofinstallmentconsumptionstimulatedeveryone’sexpenditure.Meanwhile,theactionthatpeoplewaswillingtopurchasegovernmentsbondsforfinancingmadeWallStreetbankersgettheprofitopportunity----commonstock.ItattractedindividualstoraisemoneyforprivatecompanieswhichtradedontheNewYorkStockExchange,bankerscouldseekbenefitsforthemselves.Gradually,theoldideaofstockhadbeenchanged.Almosteveryoneincityandtowntookpartinstock.Someonecangain17000dollarsalthoughhehadonly3500dollars.Allwalksoflifesoldstock.Thenewideaofovernightbillionaireandstockdoesn’tdepreciatewasenjoyingpopularsupport.Withlittlegovernmentsupervising,marketisalaw,professionalinvestorcontrolledall.InMarchof1929,thenewpresidentHooverassumedoffice,andinhisinauguralspeech,heeliminatedtheAmerican’smisgiving,althoughhewasn’tconfident.InOctoberof1929,financialcrisiswascoming,thousandsofbanksfailed,millionsofpeoplelosteverything,someonediedbyjumpingfromthebuild.During36hours,22%ofAmericanvalueindustrydeclined.ThissituationcontinuedwiththeWorldWarII.
Thisisafinancialcrisisaboutaplant.Tulipisjustacommonflower.In1593,abotanistcultivatedabatchoftulipandtheircormwasunusualbeauty.ItgaverisetoattentionofGreatWorld.Whenathingisscarceitisprecious,peoplebecamemoreandmoreadoringfortulip,thetulip’spricechangedmoreandmoreexpensive.Finally,thecornwasmoreweird,thepricewashigher.Havingabeautifultulipwasasymbolofidentity.So,cultivatedareaoftulipwasextensive,someonebecameamillionaireovernight,someoneboughtatulipwithmuchmoney.Tulipeuphoriawaspast,thedemandoftulipfellsharply,thepriceoftulipdeclinesharply,asthegarlic.Quondamcontractwasuseless,manytulipshadnothingvalue.TheDutcheconomy’sprosperitywasaflashinapan,thereforeitenteredGreatDepressioninlong-term.
Thisdocumentarydiscussesthecauseoffinancialcrisisthroughinterviewingtheeconomistandcityfather,etc.Thiscrisiswasnotanaccident,itwascausedbyanout-of-controlindustry.Inthe1980s,thefinancialindustryexploded,theinvestmentbankswentpublic,givingthemhugeamountsofstockholdermoney.TheReaganadministrationstarteda30-yearperiodoffinancialderegulation,asthesameasClintonadministration.In1930,Reaganderegulatedsavings-loancompaniesallowingthemtomakeriskyinvestmentswithdepositors’money.Sincederegulationbegan,theworld’sbiggestfinancialfirmshavebeencaughtlaunderingmoney,defraudingcustomersandcookingtheirbooksagainandagain.In1990s,deregulationandadvancesintechnologyledtoanexplosionofcomplexfinancialproductscalledderivatives.ItmademarketunstableandPrettymuchexemptedderivativesfromregulation.TheycreatedcomplexderivativescalledCollateralizedDebtObligations(CDOs).Landersdidn’tcareanymoreaboutwhetheraborrowercouldreplay,sotheystartedmakingriskierloans.In2000,therewasahugeincreaseintheriskiestloanscalledSubprime.Then,thefinancialbubbleappeared.Ratingagenciesgavehighstandard.ThebankruptcyoftheU.S,investmentbankLemanBrotherandthecollapseoftheworld’slargestinsurancecompanyAIGtriggeredaglobalcrisis.
Forinvestors,theyexperiencedthedisaster,fromheaventohell.Thesefinancialcrisesmaybedecreasedtheirenthusiasmofinvestment,investorslosttheirmoneyandjob,thedeathraterose.Theseexperiencesmadethemunderstandthatmarketisnotalmighty,theyshouldintrospectthemselves.Forthem,thecrazeofmoneyhadlimit,theresponsibilityofsocietyhadincreased.Forthefinancialregulation.Theoutbreakofthefinancialcrisisexposedtheproblemoffinancialregulation.Itreactedthehystereticqualityandinelasticitybetweenfinancialinstitutionandmarket.Financialinstitutionoperatedillegally,itignoredthestandardandrisk.Governmentssobelievedthemarket’sself-regulationsystem,gavethemfreedomexcessive.Governmentsshouldrealizethatfinancialregulationistheimportantpartoffinancialactivities.Foreconomicsystems.InternationalMonetarySystemwasinordinate,currencyexchangeratefluctuatesharply.TheWorldEconomyretrogressesinlong-term.Howtobalancethegovernmentinterventionandfinancialregulation?
Wasthereformofmonetarysystemdiversifiedorsingle?
Butactually,therearestillsomeiss
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